UFC Fight Night 197 predictions: Four-fight parlay (+540 odds)

Dec 7, 2019; Washington, DC, USA; Marina Rodriguez (red gloves) fights Cynthia Calvillo (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Capital One Arena.
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Matthew Lowrimore

UFC· 2 weeks ago

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Matthew has been with Pickswise for over a year now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passion is college football and that is the sport he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will do everything he can to make his readers money.

UFC Fight Night 197 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card will feature a featherweight fight as the main event.

Here is our favorite 4-fight parlay for UFC Fight Night 197 that pays at odds of +540. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC Fight Night 197 predictions for the full 11-fight card.

Marc Diakiese vs Rafael Alves – Fight to go the Distance – Yes (-165)

Marc Diakiese comes into this fight with an MMA record of 14-4. Diakiese is averaging 3.08 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 39%. He is absorbing 2.79 strikes and has a striking defense of 54%. His grappling is solid, averaging 2.16 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Diakiese has a takedown accuracy of 36% and his takedown defense is 62%.

Rafael Alves comes in with an MMA record of 19-10. Alves is averaging 2.01 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 46%. He is absorbing 3.71 strikes and has a striking defense of 56%.

With both fighters being relatively low volume strikers, this bout has the makings of one that will go the full 3 rounds. Diakiese has seen his last 4 UFC fights go the distance and 5 of his last 6, so backing this fight to do the same will be the play.

Sean Woodson vs Collin Anglin – Fight to go the Distance – Yes (-190)

Sean Woodson comes into this fight with an MMA record of 8-1. Woodson is averaging 5.27 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 43%. He is absorbing 3.94 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%. He has shown little to no grappling in the UFC, but has a takedown defense of 81%.

Collin Anglin comes in with an MMA record of 8-2. He is averaging 5.18 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 54%. He is absorbing 4.40 strikes and has a striking defense of 52%. His grappling is solid as well, averaging 2.75 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 80% and his takedown defense is 100%.

Woodson is a huge favorite here, but is too risky of a play against a guy who has shown he can grapple. Woodson has seen majority of his fights go the distance with 5 wins by decision. He has lost just once by submission in his career, so backing this fight to go the distance will be the play.

Cynthia Calvillo Money Line (-135) vs Andrea Lee

Cynthia Calvillo comes into this fight with an MMA record of 9-3-1. Calvillo is averaging 4.24 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 41%. She is absorbing 3.76 strikes and has a striking defense of 65%. Her grappling is also solid, averaging 1.77 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.1 submission attempts during the same time period. She has a takedown accuracy of 44% and a takedown defense of 71%.

Calvillo has lost 2 fights in a row, while Andrea Lee is only 1-3 in her last 4 UFC fights. Calvillo has been able to defend takedowns more effectively, which is a big part of what Lee will be trying to do. For that reason, backing Calvillo will be the play.

Felicia Spencer vs Leah Letson – Fight to go the Distance – Yes (-200)

Backing Felicia Spencer at a massive price is a risky play, while backing Leah Letson as the underdog is also unappealing. Spencer has seen 3 of her 5 UFC fights go the distance; Letson saw her lone Ultimate Fighter fight go the distance as well. This looks to be a fight that will be somewhat slow-paced, so backing this fight to go the distance will be the play.

Pickswise is the home of free UFC Predictions and UFC Picks. Our expert UFC handicappers bring you the best bets from the top UFC and UFC Fight Night cards.

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