UFC Fight Night 199 predictions: Four-fight parlay (+921 odds)

Dec 7, 2019; Washington, DC, USA; Rob Font (red gloves) fights Ricky Simon (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Capital One Arena.
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Matthew Lowrimore

UFC· 1 month ago

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Matthew has been with Pickswise for over a year now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passion is college football and that is the sport he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will do everything he can to make his readers money.

UFC Fight Night 199 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card will feature a heavyweight fight as the main event.

Here is our favorite 4-fight parlay for UFC Fight Night 199 that pays at odds of +921. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC Fight Night 199 predictions for the full 14-fight card.

Melissa Gatto ML (+140) vs Sijara Eubanks

Melissa Gatto comes into this fight with an MMA record of 7-0-2. She is 1-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Victoria Leonardo by TKO/KO back in August of this year. Gatto is averaging 7.00 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 57%. She is absorbing 4.30 strikes and has a striking defense of 52%. Her grappling is also solid, averaging 1.50 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Her takedown accuracy is 20% and her takedown defense is 100%.

Gatto showed a ton of potential in her UFC debut with her excellent striking volume. Sijara Eubanks did win her last fight, but has still been somewhat inconsistent in the UFC as of late. Because of the high-volume striking from Gatto, backing her to win and remain undefeated will be the play.

Dustin Stoltzfus vs Gerald Meerschaert – Fight to go the Distance – No (-175)

Gerald Meerschaert’s grappling looks to be the biggest difference in this fight, especially considering that he has won 6 times in the UFC by submission. He has also lost plenty of times by finish in the UFC, while Dustin Stoltzfus has seen 2 of his 3 UFC fights end inside the distance. Because both fighters have a high finish rate, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be the play.

Mateusz Gamrot ML (-180) vs Diego Ferreira

Mateusz Gamrot comes into this fight with an MMA record of 19-1. He is 2-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Jeremy Stephens by submission back in July of this year. Gamrot is averaging 4.10 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. He is absorbing 2.09 strikes and has a striking defense of 64%. His grappling has been much more effective, averaging 5.35 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 34% and his takedown defense is 100%.

Gamrot has been near perfect over the course of his career, while Diego Ferreira has started to show signs of being inconsistent. Ferreira has lost 2 fights in a row and his below average grappling could be a concern here. Gamrot should be able to control this fight on the ground, so backing him to win will be the top play.

Ricky Simon – Win by Submission or Decision (-135) vs Raphael Assuncao

Ricky Simon comes into this fight with an MMA record of 18-3. He is 7-2 in the UFC, most recently beating Brian Kelleher by unanimous decision back in February of this year. Simon is averaging 3.08 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 42%. He is absorbing 3.13 strikes and has a striking defense of 64%. His grappling has been elite, averaging 6.93 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Simon has a takedown accuracy of 54% and a takedown defense of 72%.

Simon’s grappling ability is clearly the biggest difference in this fight. He takes down his opponents at an alarming rate and should be able to do the same here. Simon is too steep to back on the money line and has not won by TKO/KO since 2018. He does have the ability to submit his opponent and Raphael Assuncao has recently lost by submission. For that reason, backing Simon to win by submission or decision will be the play.

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