Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC Fight Night 202 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card will feature a catchweight fight as the main event.
Here is our favorite 4-fight parlay for UFC Fight Night 202 that pays at odds of +434. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC Fight Night 202 predictions for the full 11-fight card.
Islam Makhachev Win by Submission or Decision (-225) vs Bobby Green
Islam Makhachev comes into this fight 10-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Dan Hooker by submission back in October of 2021. He is averaging 2.21 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 58%. More impressively, he is absorbing 0.79 strikes and has a striking defense of 70%. His grappling has been elite in the UFC, averaging 3.37 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.3 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 66% and his takedown defense is 88%.
Makhachev has won 9 of his 11 UFC fights by either submission or decision, so backing him to do the same here will be the play.
Arman Tsarukyan vs Joel Alvarez – Fight to go the Distance – No (-150)
Both of these guys started their UFC career with a loss, but have been perfect since. Joel Alvarez has won all 19 of his fights by a finish, including 16 wins by submission. Arman Tsarukyan has won 11 of his 17 career fights by finish, so with a high finish rate for both fighters, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be the play.
Armen Petrosyan vs Gregory Rodrigues – Fight to end by KO/TKO/DQ (-190)
Armen Petrosyan comes into this fight with an MMA record of 6-1. He is 1-0 in the UFC, though this was a fight in the Dana White Contender series, so this will be his official UFC debut. That lone Contender Series fight saw Petrosyan beat Kaloyan Kolev by KO/TKO back in October of 2021. He is averaging 4.49 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 57%. Petrosyan is absorbing 1.12 strikes and has a striking defense of 54%.
Gregory Rodrigues comes into this fight 2-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Junyong Park by KO/TKO back in October of 2021. Rodrigues is averaging 5.99 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 57%. He is absorbing 4.35 strikes and has a striking defense of 58%.
It might be the UFC debut for Petrosyan, but he should not be taken lightly. All 6 of his wins have come by KO/TKO, as well as his 1 loss. Rodrigues has 5 wins and 2 losses by KO/TKO, so backing this fight to end by that method will be the play.
Josiane Nunes ML (-220) vs Ramona Pascual
Josiane Nunes comes into this fight with an MMA record of 8-1. She is 1-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Bea Malecki by KO/TKO back in August of 2021. Nunes is averaging 10.61 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 40%. She is absorbing 7.14 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%. Her grappling was not a factor in her first UFC fight.
As impressive as Ramona Pascual has been in other promotions, this looks like a big step up in competition. Nunes is also new to the UFC, but does have 1 fight under her belt. That debut was a relatively easy win and her striking volume looks to be the clear difference here. Her money line is a bit high, but Nunes still looks to be worth a play.
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