Matthew Lowrimore
UFC
Show Bio
UFC Fight Night 219 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a women’s flyweight fight between Jessica Andrade and Erin Blanchfield as the Main Event.
Here is our favorite parlay for this card, with odds of +307 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC Fight Night 219 predictions for the full 5-fight Main Card.
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Zac Pauga ML over Jordan Wright (-275)
Zac Pauga comes into this fight with an MMA record of 5-1. He is 0-1 in the UFC, most recently losing to Mohammed Usman by KO/TKO back in August of 2022. Pauga is averaging 5.71 significant strikes and has a striking accuracy of 64%. He is absorbing 2.14 strikes and has a striking defense of 70%. He has not shown any grappling ability so far, but does have a takedown defense of 100%.
Pauga is a significant favorite in this fight, but could still be worth a small play here. Jordan Wright has lost 3 fights in a row in the UFC and 4 of his last 5, therefore backing Pauga to win will be the play.
Jamal Pogues ML over Josh Parisian (-250)
Jamal Pogues comes into this fight with an MMA record of 9-3. He is 2-0 in the UFC, but this will be his official UFC debut. His most recent fight was in the Dana White Contender Series, where he beat Paulo Renato Junior by unanimous decision back in August of 2022. Pogues is averaging 3.93 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 47%. He is absorbing 4.10 strikes and has a striking defense of 54%. His grappling has also been solid so far, averaging 3.50 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 53% and his takedown defense is 100%.
Pogues is a heavy favorite and even though he is making his official UFC debut, he still looks to be the right play. Pogues does not have the advantage in terms of striking volume, but is superior when it comes to grappling. For that reason, backing Pogues to win will be the play.
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William Knight vs Marcin Prachnio – Fight to end by KO/TKO (-190)
This fight is very evenly matched with William Knight as a very small favorite. Knight has seen 11 of his 15 career fights end by KO/TKO, while 15 of Marcin Prachnio’s 21 fights have done the same. Prachnio has also seen 6 of his last 8 fights end by KO/TKO, therefore backing this fight to do the same will be the play.
Jim Miller vs Alexander Hernandez – Fight to go the Distance – No (-250)
Alexander Hernandez is a heavy favorite here, but his poor form recently and Jim Miller’s submission ability makes it hard to back Hernandez. They both have seen their last 3 fights end inside the distance, so backing this fight to do the same will be the play.
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