UFC Fight Night 276: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa Prediction for Saturday, 05/16/26

The Main Event at UFC Fight Night 276 will see Arnold Allen take on Melquizael Costa. This will be a fight in the UFC Featherweight division. Allen enters this fight with an MMA record of 20-4 and 11-3 in the UFC. He averages 3.47 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 42%. Arnold absorbs 3.04 strikes and has a striking defense of 60%. His grappling is also decent, averaging 0.86 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 47% and a takedown defense of 71%.

Costa enters this fight with an MMA record of 26-7 and 7-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.38 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 49%. Costa absorbs 2.97 strikes and has a striking defense of 54%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 2.00 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.1 submission attempts during the same period. He has a takedown accuracy of 40% and a takedown defense of 58%.

Allen is the heavy favorite in this fight; however, Costa looks to be the best betting option. For one, Costa is in much better form, having won 6 UFC fights in a row, while Allen is 1-3 over his last 4 UFC fights. Further, Costa has the better striking volume and grappling ability. For that reason, backing Costa to win in an upset will be our best bet.