UFC on ABC 3: Brian Ortega vs Yair Rodriguez picks, predictions and best bets - Rodriguez puts himself in title contention

Brian Ortega moves in for a hit against Alexander Volkanovski during UFC 266 at T-Mobile Arena.
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Matthew Lowrimore

UFC · 3 weeks ago

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Matthew has been with Pickswise for a while now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passions are college football and UFC, and those are the sports he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will put in the research to try and achieve this.

UFC on ABC 3 takes place on Saturday at the UBS Arena in Elmont, New York. This card features a featherweight fight between Brian Ortega and Yair Rodriguez in the Main Event.

We are sharing our UFC on ABC 3 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC on ABC 3 predictions page for picks for each fight on the main and preliminary card. Let’s get into our best bets for Saturday’s card.

Main Card Best Bets

Yair Rodriguez ML (+145) over Brian Ortega

Yair Rodriguez comes into this fight with an MMA record of 14-3. He is 8-2 in the UFC, most recently losing to Max Holloway by unanimous decision back in November of 2021. Rodriguez is averaging 4.65 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 45%. He is absorbing 4.09 strikes and has a striking defense of 53%. His grappling is decent, averaging 0.86 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Though his takedown accuracy is 28%, while his takedown defense is 60%.

Even though Rodriguez is coming off a loss against Max Holloway where he was dominated, this was his first UFC fight since 2019. Rodriguez is actually a better striker than Brian Ortega and has the better striking volume. He also has better striking accuracy and better takedown defense which should nullify any small advantage that Ortega has when grappling. Rodriguez has also not lost by submission in his career and has not lost by KO/TKO since 2017, therefore backing him to pull off the upset looks to be worth a play.

Jack Shore ML (-150) over Ricky Simon

Jack Shore comes into this fight with an MMA record of 16-0. He is 5-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Timur Valiev by unanimous decision back in March of this year. Shore is averaging 4.18 significant strikes per minute, and has a striking accuracy of 59%. He is absorbing 2.27 strikes and has a striking defense of 60%. Shore is also an elite grappler, averaging 4.13 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 41% and his takedown defense is 84%.

Shore is a moderate-sized favorite, mainly because of his undefeated record. His striking is better however, and he does have better takedown defense which should allow him to control this fight or keep this fight standing. For that reason, backing Shore to remain undefeated will be the play.

Make sure you also read our UFC on ABC 3 four-fight parlay (+598 odds!)

Preliminary Card Best Bet

Dwight Grant ML (-130) over Dustin Stoltzfus

Dwight Grant comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-5. He is 4-4 in the UFC, most recently losing to Sergey Khandozhko by KO/TKO back in April of this year. Grant is averaging 3.26 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 34%. He is absorbing 2.55 strikes and has a striking defense of 61%. Grant is a decent grappler at best, averaging 0.72 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 100% and his takedown defense is 68%.

Dustin Stoltzfus has been inconsistent in the UFC to say the least, losing his last 3 fights in a row. He does have the better grappling by volume, but Grant has the better striking and is better at landing and defending takedowns. For that reason, backing Grant will be the play.

Pickswise is the home of free UFC Predictions and UFC Picks. Our expert UFC handicappers bring you the best bet from the top UFC and UFC Fight Night cards.

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