UFC on ESPN 25 predictions, picks, best bets and four-fight parlay

January 18, 2020; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Aleksa Camur during UFC 246 at T-Mobile Arena.
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Matthew Lowrimore

UFC

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Matthew has been with Pickswise for a while now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passions are college football and UFC, and those are the sports he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will put in the research to try and achieve this.

UFC on ESPN 25 is happening in Las Vegas, Nevada this week, featuring a Featherweight fight as the Main Event.

Here is our favorite four-fight parlay for UFC on ESPN 25 that pays at odds of +538. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC on ESPN 25 predictions for the full 12-fight card.

Josh Parisian Money Line (-134)

Josh Parisian comes into this fight with an MMA record of 13-4. He is 2-1 in the UFC, most recently losing to Parker Porter in what was his UFC debut. This was a loss by unanimous decision and came back in November of 2020. Parisian is averaging 7.46 significant strikes and has a striking accuracy of 51 percent. He is absorbing 7.51 strikes and has a striking defense of 42 percent. His grappling will likely not play much of a factor, but he is defending takedowns 66 percent of the time.

Roque Martinez may have looked better in his most recent fight, but he still seems to be inconsistent. The striking from Parisian looks to be the difference here, so backing him to win will be my play.

Kanako Murata vs. Virna Jandiroba – Fight to go the Distance – Yes (-165)

Kanako Murata comes into this fight 1-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Randa Markos by unanimous decision back in November of 2020. She is averaging 1.93 significant strikes and has a striking accuracy of 67 percent. She is also absorbing 1.93 strikes and has a striking defense of 52 percent. Her grappling was the difference in her UFC debut, now landing 4.00 takedowns per every 15 minutes. She also is averaging 2.0 submission attempts during the same time period. Murata is also landing her takedowns 44 percent of the time.

Virna Jandiroba comes into this fight 2-2 in the UFC, most recently losing to Mackenzie Dern back in December of 2020 by unanimous decision. She is averaging 2.39 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 46 percent. She is absorbing 3.08 strikes and has a striking defense of 54 percent. Her grappling is also solid, averaging 3.16 per every 15 minutes and 2.0 submission attempts during the same time period. Her takedown accuracy sits at 53 percent and her takedown defense is 73 percent.

Both ladies have very good grappling and will both likely look for a submission win. However, I am not confident either will find the finish, so backing this fight to go the distance will be our play.

Aleksa Camur Money Line (-250)

Aleksa Camur comes into this fight with an MMA record of 6-1. He is 2-1 in the UFC, most recently losing to William Knight by unanimous decision. This fight was back in September of 2020. He is averaging 3.94 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 54 percent. He is absorbing 2.49 strikes and has a striking defense of 57 percent. Camur’s grappling is less than ideal, averaging 0.84 takedowns per every 15 minutes. The main issue is the fact that he has a takedown accuracy of 33 percent and a takedown defense of 20 percent.

The layoff for Nicolae Negumereanu scares me away from his side, so backing Camur to win this fight will be the play.

Wellington Turman vs. Bruno Silva – Fight to go the Distance – No (-160)

Wellington Turman comes into this fight 1-2 in the UFC, most recently losing to Andrew Sanchez by TKO/KO back in August of 2020. He is averaging 2.75 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 42 percent. He is absorbing 3.71 strikes and has a striking defense of 45 percent. His grappling has been solid, averaging 2.63 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 35 percent and his takedown defense is 100 percent.

Bruno Silva comes into this fight with an MMA record of 19-6. He will be making his UFC debut here and is currently riding a four-fight win streak. He has also won 14 of his last 15 professional fights. Silva already has 16 wins by TKO/KO, but has also lost five times by submission. Because of the high finish rate, especially for Silva, I am going to back this fight to end inside the distance and will look to use this prop in a parlay.

Pickswise is the home of free UFC Predictions and Picks. Our expert UFC handicappers bring you the best bet from the top UFC and UFC Fight Night cards.

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