Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
UFC on ESPN 38 takes place tonight at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card will feature a lightweight fight as the Main Event.
Here is our favorite 4-fight parlay for this event, with odds of +764 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC on ESPN 38 predictions for the full 12-fight card.
Let’s get into our parlay for Saturday’s card.
Chris Curtis ML (-130) over Rodolfo Vieira
The odds would suggest this fight is very evenly matched and it is also a clash of striking against grappling. Chris Curtis has won 16 times in his career by KO/TKO, while Rodolfo Vieira has 7 wins by submission. Curtis has been perfect when it comes to defending takedowns so far, which does suggest that he could keep this fight standing. His striking is superior and his striking volume should give him the edge in this fight. For that reason, backing Curtis will be the play.
Carlos Ulberg ML (+105) over Tafon Nchukwi
Carlos Ulberg comes into this fight with an MMA record of 6-1. He is 2-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Fabio Cherant by unanimous decision in February. Ulberg is averaging 8.76 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 61%. He is absorbing 4.02 strikes and has a striking defense of 51%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 1.18 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 100% and his takedown defense is also 100%.
Ulberg does hold the advantage in striking and he also has had perfect grappling so far over a few UFC fights. For that reason, backing Ulberg to win will be the play.
Don’t miss our UFC on ESPN 38 best bets!
TJ Brown ML (-200) over Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
TJ Brown comes into this fight with an MMA record of 16-8. He is 3-2 in the UFC, most recently beating Charles Rosa by unanimous decision in January. Brown is averaging 3.87 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 43%. Brown is absorbing 2.82 strikes and has a striking defense of 53%. His grappling has been very good so far, averaging 4.50 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.1 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 62% and his takedown defense is 36%.
Brown is a heavy favorite coming into this fight, which looks to be justified. He has the better striking and superior grappling, therefore backing Brown to win looks to be well worth a play.
Mario Bautista ML (-170) over Brian Kelleher
Mario Bautista comes into this fight with an MMA record of 9-2. He is 3-2 in the UFC, most recently beating Jay Perrin by unanimous decision in February. Bautista is averaging 5.42 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. He is absorbing 4.13 strikes and has a striking defense of 56%. His grappling has been good, averaging 1.63 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 55% and his takedown defense is 66%.
Bautista is a decent favorite in this fight and looks to be the right side. He has the better striking and while his grappling is not as strong, his takedown defense is solid enough to believe he can keep this fight standing. Brian Kelleher is good on the ground, but also is vulnerable, having lost 7 times by submission in his career. For that reason, backing Bautista to win will be the play.
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