Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
UFC on ESPN 46 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a flyweight fight between Kai Kara-France and Amir Albazi as the Main Event.
Here is our favorite UFC parlay for this card, with odds of +696 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC on ESPN 46 predictions for all of the Main Card fights.
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Alex Caceres vs Daniel Pineda – Fight to go the Distance – No (-185)
Alex Caceres is a decent-sized favorite, but Daniel Pineda’s ability to finish fights give him a solid chance in this fight. Pineda has seen his last 9 fights end inside the distance and 37 of his 42 fights overall. Because of that, also backing this fight to end inside the distance will be our play.
Jared Gordon ML over Jim Miller (-180)
Jared Gordon comes into this fight with an MMA record of 19-6. He is 7-5 in the UFC, most recently losing to Paddy Pimblett by unanimous decision back in December of 2022. Gordon is averaging 5.32 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 57%. He is absorbing 3.28 strikes and has a striking defense of 58%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 2.01 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 40% and his takedown defense is 62%.
Gordon is the clear favorite in this fight, so even though Jim Miller is a veteran and has elite grappling, backing Gordon to win will be our play as he has only lost once by submission in his career.
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Karine Silva ML over Ketlen Souza (-225)
Karine Silva comes into this fight with an MMA record of 15-4. She is 2-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Poliana Botelho by submission back in June of 2022. Silva is averaging 2.49 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 26%. She is absorbing 3.95 strikes and has a striking defense of 35%. Her grappling has also been solid, averaging 1.29 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 3.9 submission attempts during the same time period. Silva has a takedown accuracy of 33%.
Silva is a heavy favorite in this fight, which looks to be warranted given Ketlen Souza has not yet fought at this level. Silva’s elite submission ability could be the difference in this fight, therefore backing Silva to win will be our play.
Andrei Arlovski vs Don’Tale Mayes – Fight to go the Distance – No (+130)
Don’Tale Mayes is a small favorite, but Andrei Arlovski has plenty of ability to win this fight with a finish. Arlovski has seen 34 of his career fights end inside the distance, while Mayes has seen 10 of his 14 fights do the same. For that reason, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be our play.
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