UFC predictions, picks and best bets for UFC 272: Covington can finish it
UFC 272 takes place on Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card features a welterweight fight as the main event.
We are sharing our UFC 272 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC 272 predictions page for picks for every fight on the main and preliminary card. Please gamble responsibly when following our MMA picks and predictions.
UFC 272 main card best bets
Colby Covington vs Jorge Masvidal – Fight to not go the distance (+110)
Colby Covington is a massive favorite, but Jorge Masvidal is not a guy to ever count out. Both of these guys may be fighting for another shot at Kamaru Usman (Welterweight title holder), so expect them to be trying to make a statement. They both have plenty of finishes in their careers, while also having lost by a finish a few times as well. For that reason, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be the play.
UFC 272 preliminary card best bets
Jalin Turner vs Jamie Mullarkey – Fight to not go the distance (-200)
Jalin Turner comes into this fight 5-2 in the UFC, most recently Uros Medic by submission back in September of 2021. Turner is averaging 6.20 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 47%. He is absorbing 4.12 strikes and has a striking defense of 45%. His grappling is also decent, averaging 0.98 takedowns per every 15 minutes, but 1.9 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 75% and his takedown defense is 78%.
Jamie Mullarkey comes into this fight with an MMA record of 14-4. He is averaging 3.03 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 40%. He is absorbing 4.45 strikes and has a striking defense of 45%. His grappling is his main weapon, averaging 3.50 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 32% and his takedown defense is 66%.
This should be a fast-paced fight, especially seeing that both of these fighters tend to finish their fights. Turner has won 11 times inside the distance, and Mullarkey has won 13 times by finish. For that reason, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be the play here.
Umar Nurmagomedov win by finish vs Brian Kelleher (+120)
Umar Nurmagomedov comes into this fight with an MMA record of 13-0. He is 1-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Sergey Morozov by submission back in January of 2021. He does have elite grappling, at least through his first UFC fight, averaging 8.67 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.7 submission attempts during the same time period. He has a takedown accuracy of 45% and has not been taken down in the UFC so far.
Nurmagomedov is a huge favorite, thus taking the money line out of play. He has 6 wins by submission in his career and 1 win by KO/TKO, while Brian Kelleher has 6 submission losses in his career and 1 by KO/TKO. Because Nurmagomedov is so good on the ground, backing him to win by finish will be the play.