UFC predictions, picks and best bets for UFC Fight Night 189

Miguel Baeza (red gloves) throwing a punch in his fight at UFC Fight Night Tampa
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Matthew Lowrimore

UFC· 3 months ago

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Matthew has been with Pickswise for over a year now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passion is college football and that is the sport he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will do everything he can to make his readers money.

We are back in Las Vegas at the UFC Apex this week for UFC Fight Night 189. This week’s card will feature a Heavyweight fight as the Main Event.

We’ll share our UFC Fight Night 189 best bets here but head over to our main UFC Fight Night 189 predictions homepage if you want picks for every fight on the main and preliminary card. Please gamble responsibly when following our MMA picks and predictions.

UFC Fight Night 189 Best Bets

Main Card

Miguel Baeza Money Line (-120)

Miguel Baeza comes into this fight with an MMA record of 10-0. He is 4-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Takashi Sato by submission back in November of 2020. He is averaging 4.64 significant strikes per minute and landing them 55 percent of the time. He is absorbing 3.89 strikes and has a striking defense of 50 percent. His grappling is starting to improve, averaging 0.80 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He is also averaging 1.2 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 40 percent and his takedown defense is 100 percent.

Baeza has looked flawless so far in the UFC. I do believe his grappling is going to be the difference here and his submission ability gives him another method to victory. For that reason, I like Baeza to remain perfect in the UFC.

Preliminary Card

Jordan Leavitt Win by Finish (+115)

Jordan Leavitt comes into this fight with an MMA record of 8-0. He is 2-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Matt Wiman by TKO/KO back in December of 2020. Not only did Leavitt win this fight, but he knocked out Wiman with his first punch. Leavitt is only averaging 1.08 significant strikes per minute as a result and he has a striking accuracy of 55 percent. He is absorbing 0.43 strikes and has a striking defense of 75 percent. Leavitt’s main weapon is his grappling. He is averaging 6.50 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 3.2 submission attempts during this same time period. He has a takedown accuracy of 66 percent and neither of his UFC opponents have attempted to take him down.

Leavitt might not be a high-volume striker, but the one-punch knockout was impressive. Claudio Puelles on the other hand, has had a long layoff and I think it will be hard for him to adjust. Because Leavitt has won both his fights in the UFC by finish, I am going to back the same to happen here.

Tanner Boser Money Line (-200)

Tanner Boser comes into this fight with an MMA record of 19-7-1. He is 3-2 in the UFC, most recently coming off a loss to Andrei Arlovski. Boser is averaging 4.54 significant strikes per minute and is landing them 55 percent of the time. He is absorbing 2.70 strikes and has a striking defense of 63 percent. His grappling has not been anything special, but his takedown defense is 100 percent.

Boser has the better striking, but his takedown defense can be the difference here. If Ilir Latifi is not able to take this fight to the ground, I am not confident in his striking. For that reason, I will back Boser to pick up the win.

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