UFC predictions, picks and best bets for UFC Fight Night 195: Felipe beats the Veteran

July 19, 2020; Abu Dhabi, UAE; Carlos Felipe of Brazil punches Serghei Spivac of Ukraine in their heavyweight bout during UFC Fight Night at the Flash Forum on UFC Fight Island.
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Matthew Lowrimore

UFC· 1 month ago

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Matthew has been with Pickswise for over a year now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passion is college football and that is the sport he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will do everything he can to make his readers money.

UFC Fight Night 195 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card will feature a women’s featherweight division fight as the main event.

We are sharing our UFC Fight Night 195 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC Fight Night 195 predictions page for picks for every fight on the main and preliminary card. Please gamble responsibly when following our MMA picks and predictions.

UFC Fight Night 195 main card best bets

Aspen Ladd vs Norma Dumont – Fight to go the distance – Yes (-110)

Aspen Ladd comes into this fight 4-1 in the UFC. She is averaging 5.22 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 55%. She is absorbing 4.84 strikes and has a striking defense of 46%. Her grappling has been great, averaging 2.45 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.2 submission attempts during the same time period. Her takedown accuracy is 75% and her takedown defense is 66%.

Norma Dumont comes into this fight 2-1 in the UFC, winning her most recent fight against Felicia Spencer by split decision. Dumont is averaging 4.98 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. She is absorbing 2.86 strikes and has a striking defense of 67%. Her grappling has also been decent, averaging 1.79 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Her takedown accuracy is 40%, but her takedown defense is 100%.

Ladd was supposed to fight a few weeks ago, however that contest was canceled, so her last fight was more than 18 months ago. She has quite a few wins by finish, but Dumont is a formidable opponent and has lost by a finish only once in her career. Her last 2 fights have gone the distance, and that is the play here as well.

Andrei Arlovski vs Carlos Felipe ML (-110)

Carlos Felipe comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-1. He is 3-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Jake Collier by unanimous decision in June. He is averaging 4.88 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 46%. He is absorbing 5.62 strikes and has a striking defense of 50%. His grappling has been non-existent, but he is defending takedowns 72% of the time.

This fight is very evenly matched as the odds might suggest. Felipe is an up-and-coming fighter, while Andrei Arlovski is a long-time veteran. Felipe does have the better striking though, and backing him to win is the best play.

Manon Fiorot vs Mayra Bueno Silva – Fight to go the distance – No (-115)

Manon Fiorot comes into this fight 2-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Tabatha Ricci by TKO/KO in June. She is averaging 8.00 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. She is absorbing 1.98 strikes and has a striking defense of 80%. Her grappling is also solid, averaging 1.75 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Her takedown accuracy and her takedown defense are both 100%.

Mayra Bueno Silva comes into this fight 3-1-1 in the UFC. She is averaging 4.06 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 57%. She is absorbing 4.89 strikes and has a striking defense of 47%. Her grappling is not great, considering she has not landed any takedowns. However, she does average 1.6 submission attempts every 15 minutes. Silva also has a takedown defense of 73%.

Both ladies have seen plenty of their fights end inside the distance in their careers. Six of Fiorot’s 7 wins have come by TKO/KO, including 2 in the UFC. Six of Silva’s 7 wins have also come by finish, including all 3 of her UFC wins. For that reason, backing this contest to end inside the distance is the play.

Pickswise is the home of free UFC Predictions and UFC Picks. Our expert UFC handicappers bring you the best bet from the top UFC and UFC Fight Night cards.

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