UFC on ESPN 35 predictions, picks and best bets: Vera rises in the ranks
UFC on ESPN 35 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card features a fight in the bantamweight division as the Main Event.
We are sharing our UFC on ESPN 35 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC on ESPN 35 predictions page for picks for every fight on the main and preliminary card. Please gamble responsibly when following our MMA picks and predictions.
Main card best bets
Rob Font vs Marlon Vera ML (+110)
Marlon Vera comes into this fight with an MMA record of 18-7-1. He is 12-6 in the UFC, most recently beating Frankie Edgar by KO/TKO back in November of 2021. Vera is averaging 4.08 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%. He is absorbing 4.27 strikes and has a striking defense of 50%. His grappling is not as strong, averaging 0.82 takedowns per every 15 minutes, but 1.3 submission attempts during the same time period.
This fight is very even, but with Vera having a more balanced fighting style, he looks to be a decent underdog. Vera has a total of 15 wins by finish, and even though his grappling numbers are not the best, 8 of those wins by finish have come by submission. He has also never lost by being finished, so his chin should be able to hold up. Vera is also 8-2 in his last 10 fights, so for that reason, backing Vera will be the play.
Preliminary card best bets
Alexandr Romanov win by KO/TKO (+130) vs Chase Sherman
Alexandr Romanov comes into this fight with an MMA record of 15-0. He is 4-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Jared Vanderaa by KO/TKO back in October of 2021. Romanov is averaging 4.26 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 52%. He is absorbing 1.43 strikes and has a striking defense of 43%. His grappling looks to be better than his striking, averaging 5.58 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.3 submission attempts during the same time period.
Romanov is by far the biggest favorite on this card, making his money line unplayable. He does have 14 wins by finish in his career, while Sherman has 5 losses by finish. Of those losses by finish, 4 came by KO/TKO with just 1 by submission. Romanov has 8 submission wins compared to 6 wins by KO/TKO, but because Sherman has been able to avoid losing by submission often, backing Romanov to win by KO/TKO will be the play.
Gabe Green vs Yohan Lainesse ML (+120)
Yohan Lainesse comes into this fight with an MMA record of 8-0. He is 1-0 in the UFC, though this will be his UFC debut. His lone UFC fight was in the Dana White’s Contender Series where he beat Justin Burlinson by KO/TKO back in November of 2021. Lainesse is averaging 3.09 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 38%. He is absorbing 1.24 strikes and has a striking defense of 60%. Through his 1 Contender Series fight, Lainesse has not shown any grappling ability.
Even though Lainesse is making his UFC debut, he was very impressive in his Contender Series fight. He has won 6 times by KO/TKO, while Gabe Green has 2 losses by the same method. Lainesse’s ability to grapple is still a question mark, but with the power he has shown, backing him to win his debut is still worth a play.