Wise n' Shine: What you need to know to bet better on Monday, July 18

Photo of Phil Agius

Phil Agius

MLB · 3 weeks ago

Show Bio

I've been writing about the NFL and a host of other sports for the UK's top daily betting paper the Racing Post for more than 20 years. An incurable Browns fan (1-31 survivor), I also specialise in all kinds of motorsport betting including F1, MotoGP, IndyCar and NASCAR.

Welcome to another wonderful week of sports, Pickswise Nation! There are no games today, so the MLB Home Run Derby takes center stage, while we look back at Cam Smith’s Open Championship win and ahead to the new NFL season. Let’s get straight to making your next bet better!

About Last Night

Back-to-back parlay days!
The Pickswise MLB team signed off for the first part of the MLB season by cashing our standard MLB parlay for the second day running, albeit with only 2 legs left after the Reds vs Cardinals game became the second postponement of the day, following Tigers vs Guardians. We still had a +187 win though, to follow Saturday’s +451 success. Our daily YRFI/NRFI article went 1-1, taking its overall record to 20-6 in its first 13 days. The Yankees gave the Red Sox another mauling, winning 13-2 after Saturday’s 14-1 win, while the upset of the day saw the Nationals ending a 9-game losing run by beating the Braves 7-3.

Today’s Slate

Big hitters on parade
Clear your schedule to watch them clearing the fences — a lot. It’s the MLB Home Run Derby tonight at 8:00 pm ET on ESPN. Eight of the game’s biggest sluggers will blast away to find a champion, with Pete Alonso aiming for his third straight win. Caleb Wilfinger has you covered with our MLB Home Run Derby predictions and best bets.

Best Bet of the Day

MLB Home Run Derby first round: Corey Seager (+130) over Julio Rodriguez
8:00 pm ET, ESPN

Former Dodger Corey Seager is a value outsider in the first round of the Home Run Derby playing in a familiar ballpark. Seager is putting up some outstanding power numbers this season, but not many are paying attention to him outside of Arlington, Texas. The shortstop’s power-hitting ability has always been underrated, but Seager is in the top 4% of baseball in xSLG and near the top 10% in hard-hit rate. His opponent Julio Rodriguez does have some impressive exit velocity numbers, but Seager is hitting from the left side in a familiar ballpark that caters to lefties with its shorter distance to right field. Check out our full Home Run Derby preview.

Must-watch

Don’t forget to check out our daily show Let’s Bet It! on our YouTube channel atyoutube.com/c/Pickswise at 10:00 am ET.

Lauren Jbara, Mark Zinno and Alex Glaze are your hosts today and they will be looking at all aspects of this week’s baseball festivities, assessing the latest MLB news, giving their Home Run Derby picks and All-Star Game predictions and revealing their Plays of the Day.

You can also access the show at any time through Spotify and Apple Podcasts (search for Let’s Bet It Presented By Pickswise).

Must-read

With the first half of the MLB season in the books, Jared Smith has taken a look at what we’ve learned so far and acquired some sportsbook insight in his MLB Betting Update.

The time has also come to start delivering our NFL season preview content with our Super Bowl 57 predictions and NFC best bet and longshot the first to arrive. Ricky Dimon has the smart bets for this week’s men’s and women’s tennis events in Hamburg too.

Keep an eye out for more great sports analysis as it arrives throughout the day on the Analysis tab.

Stat of the Day

The last 4 Home Run Derby finals have been decided by just 1 run (11-10, 19-18, 23-22, 23-22).

Quote of the Day

I am definitely going to find out how many beers can fit in this jug.”

British Open champion Cam Smith was not intending to use the famous Claret Jug trophy for its original purpose after his big win at St Andrews.

Pickswise is the home of free sports picks, news, and best bets. Check out our expert NBA picksNHL picks, MLB picks, Golf picks and Soccer picks for the latest game picks.

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