Falcons vs Saints Same Game Parlay: Best SGP Picks
Week 4 of the NFL season wraps up with a huge Monday Night Football rivalry game in the NFC South between the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints. Although both teams are 1-2, they are right in the thick of things as part of a perennially moribund division.
I kicked off Week 4 by cashing my +750 Same Game Parlay for Steelers vs Browns on Thursday Night Football. Here is my SGP for Monday’s primetime festivities, which get underway at 8:15 pm ET on ESPN. Also be sure to check out our full Falcons vs Saints predictions.
Falcons ML (+110)
Kyle Pitts Over 28.5 receiving yards (-115)
Chris Olave Over 7.5 receptions (+123)
Parlay odds: +650
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Atlanta tight end Kyle Pitts going for a decent amount of yardage obviously works well with a Falcons victory. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing New Orleans receiver Chris Olave to have a productive night. But even if he does, there is no reason why the visitors can’t get the job done. Let’s break down each of the three legs.
Falcons ML (+110)
The Falcons’ 1-2 record can be broken down into two parts: they are 0-2 without Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback; they are 1-0 with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback. Atlanta was completely inept when Cooper Rush was running the offense in the first two games, but Penix immediately restored order by winning at Green Bay 35-14 in Week 3. The Washington product completed 18 of 25 passes for 256 yards and one touchdown while playing turnover-free football after the opening drive. That game was on Thursday night, too, so the Falcons are effectively coming off a mini-bye. Yes, the Saints are playing at home – but they just lost their home opener to Las Vegas. There is no reason why the visitors can’t pull off a minor upset.
Kyle Pitts Over 28.5 receiving yards (-115)
This is a fantastic buy-low spot for Pitts. Atlanta’s talented tight end has been non-existent so far, making just two receptions on six targets for 20 yards through three weeks. Count on much more production on Monday night. One, you know Penix will make a concerted after to get Pitts the football after the former Florida standout was basically the only guy who missed out on the offensive fun at Lambeau Field. Two, this is a favorable matchup for Pitts. New Orleans has already watched opposing tight ends make 25 catches for 250 yards and two touchdowns.
Chris Olave Over 7.5 receptions (+123)
The Saints are without RB1 Travis Etienne (on injured reserve with a hamstring problem) and Alvin Kamara is well past his prime. Moreover, the Falcons are #1 in the NFL in run defense by a country mile – allowing just 47.7 yards per game. It’s safe to assume that New Orleans’ offense will be extremely one-dimensional in this matchup. That means Olave could see a ton – and I mean a ton – of balls come his way from Tyler Shough. He has already caught 27 passes on 36 targets for 375 yards and one score this season. Olave faced Atlanta once last year and made nine receptions on 13 targets.
