Parlays

The Philadelphia Phillies play the San Diego Padres to finish off the first half of the season. Both teams have had successful first halves and are well-positioned for a playoff run. The Phillies have been on the west coast for the week, and after dropping the first two games to the Giants, they exploded for 13 runs in the series finale. San Diego split a 4-game set with Arizona earlier this week. On Friday, the Philly definitely have the starting-pitching advantage, but the bullpen edge goes strongly to the Padres. This is a tough game to play for that reason, but I am going to side with the Phillies.

Ranger Suarez has been outstanding all season. His only bad start was the first one of the year. Since then he has churned out 11 straight fantastic outings, most of them going 6 or 7 innings with 1 run allowed or fewer. The Padres are using a bullpen arm in Omar Cruz, and he has not pitched in the Big Leagues since April. Clear advantage to the Phillies there. The problem comes with the end of the game. The Padres have the #2 bullpen in baseball, while the Phillies can blow a late-inning lead with the best of them. Still, I am going to take my chances with the bullpen in the first game — trusting Suarez to hand them a solid lead.

Phillies vs Padres prediction: Philadelphia ML (-160) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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It’s time for some Friday night baseball, and we’ve got your New York Mets vs. Kansas City Royals prediction right here! The Mets are coming off a series loss to the Orioles, losing two out of three. Meanwhile, the Royals are coming off a sweep against the Pirates and have won six of their last seven games. Taking the mound for the Mets will be the right-hander Kodai Senga, who has been terrific all season, entering with a 7-3 record, 1.47 ERA, and 1.11 WHIP. For the Royals, Michael Wacha gets the start, entering with a 4-9 record, 3.83 ERA, and a 1.29 WHIP.

The Royals struggled to produce offensively towards the end of June, but recently, their bats have come alive, averaging 5.2 runs per game over their last six – just behind the Mets who are putting up 5.5 runs per game during that same stretch. Kodai Senga has been terrific all year, and in his last three starts, he’s 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA. As for Michael Wacha, it’s been a different story as he’s 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA. The Mets are in need of a win, and with Senga on the mound, I think they’ll be in a great position to do so. Despite the Royals offense coming back to life, I think Wacha struggles will continue against the Mets, making New York my best bet of the day. 

Mets vs Royals prediction: Mets ML (-135) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Ryne Nelson enters Friday’s matchup with the Los Angeles Angels in excellent form. The right-hander was not a member of the starting rotation to begin the season, appearing in 10 games as a reliever, but injuries and poor performance from their starters has put him back into a larger role. Nelson has delivered in recent outings, providing Arizona with quality production and depth in his outings. Ryne tossed 7.0 innings of 1-run ball in his last start against the Royals, and he has allowed just 4 earned runs total in his last 5 starts combined.

Tyler Anderson is also pitching relatively well, allowing 3 or fewer earned runs in each of his last 3 starts. He does draw the tougher matchup against a more consistent Arizona lineup, and Anderson is not a pitcher I am as fond of to begin with. Anderson is a low strikeout rate arm that allows too many home runs for my liking. His performance has been better in his home park this season, but I still expect Arizona to win the game.

Diamondbacks vs Angels prediction: Arizona ML (-130) available at time of publishing. Playable to -135.

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To start off our MLB parlay, let’s take the Red Sox on the money line. This is a massive series in the AL Wild Card picture, and it came down to the wire on Thursday, when Boston rallied late to steal the series opener. Winners of 9 of their last 10, the Red Sox should be in a solid position to keep the good times rolling on Friday, especially since their offense is averaging 7.7 runs per game with a .938 OPS over the past 2 weeks, and Alex Bregman is set to return on Friday. Neither starter is expected to go that deep into this game, but Red Sox starter Hunter Dobbins has been much better at home (3.22 ERA) and Drew Rasmussen is due for some regression (3.68 xERA compared to his 2.82 actual ERA) in his upcoming outings. Let’s take Boston to keep the train rolling at home.

For the 2nd leg of our MLB parlay, we’re off to San Francisco for a matchup between the Giants and the suddenly reeling Los Angeles Dodgers. Los Angeles’ offense has struggled mightily of late (5 runs over its last 4 games), and I don’t see the Dodgers succeeding much against the excellent Logan Webb (2.62 ERA, 27.2% strikeout rate, 90th percentile ground-ball rate) on the road. On the other side, Dustin May will get the ball for Los Angeles on Friday, and the lanky southpaw has been pretty unconvincing this season, posting a 4.52 ERA on the year, to go along with a 5.67 ERA in June. All things considered, the Giants should be able to get out to an early lead and hold the edge through 5 innings on Friday.

To close out our MLB parlay, let’s back the Tigers on the run line. Detroit is taking on a Seattle Mariners team that suffered a heartbreaking loss on Thursday, and will now have the displeasure of facing off against Tarik Skubal (2.02 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 33.9% strikeout rate), who is the AL Cy Young favorite for the 2nd straight season. As for the Seattle side of things, the Mariners are countering with Luis Castillo, whose underlying metrics are just not as good as his baseline statistics at this point in the campaign. That’s certainly concerning against a Tigers lineup that is ranked 6th in SLG and OPS on the year. With Detroit having the vastly superior starter and a pretty well-rested bullpen, I’ll gladly back the Tigers to win by margin on Friday.