Parlays

The Reds and Cardinals meet up again on Saturday afternoon. The Cardinals won on Friday night, 7-4, but they are still jockeying with the Cubs for last place in the NL Central. The Reds were expected to be in the cellar, but they keep sneaking in wins, despite trotting out one of the youngest teams in the Majors. The Reds also do a great job of covering the +1.5 Run Line, as they both tend to win games as underdogs or lose by just one. I like this play on Saturday as well.

The pitching matchup is tough to read. The Cards are starting Miles Mikolas. After three awful starts to open the season, Mikolas has been one of the better pitchers in the NL. He has not given up more than three runs in 10 straight starts. My heart says to fade Mikolas, but the stats say I shouldn’t. The Reds will give the ball to rookie Andrew Abbott. Abbott blanked the Brewers over six innings a few days ago in his MLB debut. It is hard to project how he will play in his second start, but like so many others in the Cincinnati clubhouse, he is a young player who is outperforming his expectations.

The Reds are scrappy, and they love to score runs late in the game. I don’t think it is out of the question for the Reds to win the game outright, but I am totally comfortable playing this Run Line.

Reds +1.5 at -140 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Download the Pickswise app to get our picks and best bets for every game, every day.

We may be witnessing the next rising star in baseball this afternoon. The 24-year-old Bobby Miller is drawing comparisons to Atlanta’s Spencer Strider because of his high-velocity fastball and devastating offspeed pitches. After his first 3 starts, Miller’s fastball is sitting at 98.6 MPH and his slider has gotten a 42.3% whiff rate, so no matter which pitch opponents see, they are in trouble. During his limited outings, he has given up 2 runs on 9 hits while racking up 16 strikeouts against the Braves, Nationals and Yankees. His success is all well deserved because he has a .197 xBA with just a .256 xSLG, so his dominance is backed up by his advanced metrics.

Aaron Nola is coming off of the best outing of his season. He went up against the Detroit Tigers, obviously not the greatest lineup in baseball, and struck out 12 while not allowing an earned run in 7 innings. I was getting flashbacks to last season’s version of Nola, who was lights out nearly the entire season. But the key in this game will come down to Philadelphia’s inconsistent offense and their poor showing against right-handed pitching. The Phillies have just a 94 wRC+ against right-handers in the last month which does not bode well for this afternoon’s battle, so I’m taking the Dodgers by the money line at a great price.

Dodgers ML (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -125

Download the Pickswise app to get our picks and best bets for every game, every day.

The Guardians could not be more happy to have Triston McKenzie back in the rotation. The young right-hander made his season debut against the Twins last weekend and put on a show. In 5 scoreless innings, McKenzie allowed just 1 hit while striking out 10 batters, so it’s safe to say that he’s back and better than ever. His fastball was up a tick from last season and his curveball had more spin – all great signs that McKenzie is completely healthy. Cleveland’s right-hander will take on a Houston offense that has struggled against him in their careers since their lineup has a combined batting average of just .240 with a .226 xBA and a 25% strikeout rate.

Houston will counter with their own right-hander in the form of JP France. The 28-year-old was fabulous in his most recent start as he allowed just 1 run and 3 hits in 7 innings to the Angels. That was the 4th start of the season in which France has allowed 1 run or less, and he’s only had 6 outings this season! France is the type of pitcher that doesn’t rely on the strikeout, but more so pitches to get weak contact. That’s perfect against a Guardians lineup that doesn’t strike out a ton and aims to put the ball in play to let good things happen. Between France and McKenzie dueling it out, I’m happy taking the under in Cleveland.

Under 8 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number

Download the Pickswise app to get our picks and best bets for every game, every day.

It’s not quite time to just blindly fade the Mets regardless of the situation…but it’s close. They have lost 7 games in a row, during which they have scored 5 total runs against Toronto during a 3-game sweep, got swept by Atlanta while blowing 3-run leads in every single game and lost the opener of this series in Pittsburgh by a humiliating 14-7 scoreline. Adding insult to injury, or vice versa, Pete Alonso is out for a few weeks after getting hit on the wrist with a pitch against the Braves. Can Kodai Senga solve the Mets’ problems? Maybe not. They have lost 2 of his last 3 starts and he did not even make it out of the second inning in his most recent appearance against the Blue Jays.

Just as the Mets are spiraling down the drain, the Braves are going in the other direction. Despite missing Max Fried and Kyle Wright, Atlanta has won 6 straight games – complete with its sweep of the Mets, 2 victories over Arizona and success in the series opener against Washington on Friday. Young, less well-known arms have stepped up in a big way during the absences of Fried and Wright, and that will once again be the plan on Saturday. Jared Shuster compiled a 3.68 ERA in May and has made 4 consecutive appearances without giving up more than 3 runs. Given the strength of the Braves’ lineup and the way a lot of their hitters are cooking right now, another decent performance by Shuster should be enough for a multi-run victory.

The Yankees lost 3-2 on Friday, but I think they will bounce back and make the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball Game of the Week tomorrow the rubber match of this series. Domingo German is taking the mound this afternoon and has turned things around since a slow start to the season. The right-hander posted a 2.54 ERA during the month of May and he opened June by working 6.2 innings of 1-run baseball in a 4-1 win over the Dodgers. For Boston, Tanner Houck is 3-5 with a 5.46 ERA. The Yankees have not exactly been crushing the ball of late, but the combination of facing Houck and being backed by German should be enough to cover the run line and bring us home in this parlay.