Parlays

Baseball fans can finally celebrate as the MLB season kicks off on Thursday and we have a New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers prediction right here. Both teams have had some big changes in the offseason, and only time will tell if they’re for better or for worse. The Yankees lost Juan Soto to the Mets and Nestor Cortes to the Brewers in exchange for Devin Williams. Despite losing Soto, the Yankees called up Jasson Dominguez and signed Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt to strengthen their lineup. As for the Brewers, they didn’t make too many changes in the offseason — opting to bring back most of their team from last year that helped them win the NL Central. 

Typically, this would be a game where Gerrit Cole would start for the Yankees. However, with their ace sidelined due to Tommy John surgery, Carlos Rodon gets the nod to start Opening Day. Rodon struggled in spring training, going 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA and striking out 10 in 10.0 innings pitched. Last season Rodon went 16-9 with a 3.96 ERA, striking out 195 batters in 175.0 innings. On the mound for the Brewers will be Freddy Peralta, who also had a rough spring — compiling a 1-2 record with an 8.56 ERA in just 13.2 innings pitched. Last season he posted a 11-9 record with a 3.68 ERA and struck out 200 batters in 173.2 innings. While the Yankees will be without Soto,  all eyes are on Cody Bellinger — who has been on fire this spring, hitting .423 with 4 home runs and 8 RBIs. The Brewers’ lineup is well-rounded, featuring hitters like Chourio, Yelich, Hoskins and Frelick, so Rodon will need to be careful when facing them. This Brewers team has speed and talent, but so do the Yankees.  

I think this game is going to come down to pitching, and even though it’s hard to gauge how a team is going to perform on opening day, the Yankees have the advantage of being at home. Rodon has pitched slightly better than Peralta this spring, and that could be the difference maker. Plus, the Yankees boast a stronger bullpen — which can shut things down if they’re in the lead. All things considered, I’m taking the Yankees on the money line for their home opener. 

Brewers vs Yankees prediction: New York ML (-150) available at time of publishing. Playable to -160. 

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In this matchup we will see the Los Angeles Angels travel to Chicago to take on the White Sox for opening day of the MLB season. Starting on the mound for this game will be Yusei Kikuchi for the Angels and Sean Burke for the White Sox. Kikuchi was acquired from the Houston Astros in the off season and will make his Los Angeles debut to open the season. To close the year for the Astros, Kikuchi pitched in 10 games and the Astros were able to win 9 out of 10 with Kikuchi pitching a minimum of 5.1 innings throughout. In those games, Kikuchi averaged 1.8 earned runs per game. On the other hand, Sean Burke for the White Sox pitched a total of 4 games last year and posted a 2-0 record with a 1.42 ERA. The downside is that those 4 are the only games he has pitched in his MLB career. If these pitchers follow similar form on the closing performances of last year, you can expect that both pitchers will be able to control the mound.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, we have the hitting of these 2 squads. Last season was rough for both of these teams, with the Angels averaging 3.92 runs per game and the White Sox at 3.13. If we dive a little deeper into the statistics in order to find a potential edge, we come across the RBI numbers for these 2 teams. The Angels accrued a total of 596 RBIs last season while the White Sox totaled 485 RBIs. Given the difference in hitting potential through the history of RBIs and the experience difference among the starting pitchers, we may have found our edge.

Angels vs White Sox prediction: Los Angeles ML (-150) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Dodgers have already played 2 games this season in Japan against the Cubs, and the reigning champs have already shown they will be tough to beat. The Tigers are ready to kick things off on Thursday and will send ace Tarik Skubal to the mound. Skubal was fantastic in 2024, going 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA and striking out 228 batters. He has been solid this spring, going 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA and striking out 24 in 19.1 innings pitched. The Tigers are hungry to win the AL Central this year, but do they have what it takes to start off the season 1-0 against the reigning World Series champs?

The Dodgers will be sending Blake Snell to the mound after he went 5-3 last season with a 3.12 ERA with the Giants. Snell didn’t pitch much in spring training, throwing just 4.2 innings in 2 starts, posting a 7.71 ERA. The Dodgers are loaded with talent, and last year, this team was first in OPS (.795) against left-handed pitching, something Skubal should keep in mind when facing hitters like Ohtani, Smith and Muncy if they all get the nod to start on Thursday. The Tigers made a few notable moves in the offseason, which included signing infielder Gleyber Torres and outfielder Manuel Margot. They also strengthened their bullpen by acquiring Tommy Kahnle, adding to their already talented roster. Detroit boasts one of the best high-upside rotations in the American League, if they remain healthy, but their one concern will be their lineup. The Dodgers have a significant advantage in hitting in Thursday’s matchup, but the Tigers will have an edge with pitching. Overall, it’s hard to go against the reigning champs — especially when they have already played 2 regular-season games. All in all, give me the Dodgers to win their home opener.

Tigers vs Dodgers prediction: Los Angeles ML (-150) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Nationals are playing at home on Opening Day, but that may not make much difference. They were a horrendous 33-48 at Nationals Park last season. Washington also has to go up against a familiar NL East foe in Zack Wheeler, which is obviously more bad news. Wheeler went 16-7 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 2024. Unsurprisingly, the right-hander completely befuddled a weak Washington lineup last season to the tune of a 2-0 record, 2.29 ERA and 23 strikeouts in 19.2 innings of work across 3 appearances.

The Nats are countering with MacKenzie Gore, who is a solid pitcher but on almost any other club would not be an Opening Day starter. It goes without saying that Philadelphia also boasts a much more potent lineup, led by Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber. I am more than happy to back the visitors to win by multiple runs.

It is true that Atlanta has Chris Sale on the mound, but I was still surprised to see San Diego as an underdog. The Padres have Michael King on the mound, just as they did for Game 1 of the wild-card round against none other than the Braves in 2024. King turned in a dominant performance, firing 7.0 innings of shutout baseball while striking out 12 batters that set the stage for a San Diego sweep. A late bloomer at 29 years old, the right-hander was effective from start to finish last season – winning 12 games and compiling a 2.95 ERA with 201 Ks in 173.2 innings.

King will face an Atlanta lineup that does not yet have Ronald Acuna Jr. at its disposal on the heels of last year’s torn ACL. Sean Murphy is also sidelined for a couple of weeks. Sale should be good once again, but it’s a big ask for him to duplicate his 2024 Cy Young success. Give me the Padres as small home underdogs.

The Cubs are in sole possession of last place in the MLB standings after losing both games of the Tokyo Series against the Dodgers. That certainly isn’t worth overreacting to given how good the Dodgers are, but it’s still not a great start. Chicago will look to right the ship with Justin Steele toeing the rubber on Thursday in Arizona. Steele predictably took a step back last season, when his strikeouts-to-walks ratio dipped from 4.9 to 3.6. The southpaw got pummeled by L.A. in Tokyo, giving up 5 earned runs on 2 homers in just 4.0 innings.

Zac Gallen gets the ball for the Diamondbacks after averaging more than 14 victories over the past 3 years. Arizona has the better pitcher, the better lineup and is playing at home for its season opener. I’ll take the Snakes by multiple runs.

The Cleveland Cavaliers will be hoping to extend their winning streak to 3 games when they host the San Antonio Spurs on Thursday night. Cleveland is coming off consecutive victories over Utah and Portland in which it put the clamps down defensively. The Cavaliers gave up just 91 points to the Jazz and 111 to the Trail Blazers. At the other end of the court, they have exceeded the 120-point mark only once in the last 6 outings, their worst such drought of the entire season. Evan Mobley (18.7 ppg) is out for this game to get some rest and Ty Jerome (12.2 ppg) is questionable due to a knee issue, so the Cavs will be lacking plenty of offensive firepower. As such, my Spurs vs Cavaliers pick is the under.

San Antonio has long since shut down Victor Wembanyama for the remainder of the season and De’Aaron Fox is also out for the year. The Spurs aren’t entirely inept at the offensive end without him, but it cannot be overlooked that they scored a mere 96 points during Tuesday’s blowout loss at Detroit. No active player on the roster is averaging more than 16.4 ppg. There is simply too much star power missing from these 2 clubs to feel comfortable about going with the over when the total is set at a lofty 239 points.

Spurs vs Cavaliers prediction: Under 239 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 237.

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A massive sigh of relief was felt among the Lakers fanbase last night and especially LeBron James fans as he kept his double-digit point scoring streak alive. LeBron also tipped in the game winning basket as time expired, giving the Lakers a much needed win to end a 3-game losing streak. Luka Doncic went for 34-7-7, both he and LeBron logged a team-high 38 minutes. I’m certain James will rest tonight as the Lakers head to Chicago for a 2nd night of a back-to-back, there’s a chance Luka and Austin Reaves do as well. At least, that’s how head coach JJ Redick approaches these back-to-back scenarios. LA is 7-4 SU in 11 such games this season, they’ll be seeking revenge vs the Bulls who beat them less than a week ago.

Following that massive 146-115 win in LA 5 days ago, the Bulls followed it up with another spectacular showing and beat the Nuggets 129-119 to finish off an impressive West coast road trip. They are one of the most in-form teams in the league with 8 wins in 10 games and a 9-1 ATS run. Even in home games they’ve been a reliable bet, covering in 5 of 6 so I’m quite optimistic about their chances here. Coby White has been on an absolute tear averaging 30.6 points per game. He is one of the main reasons why the Bulls have overtaken the Miami Heat for the 9th spot in the East.

Chicago’s on a run of 3 straight wins by double digits, against formidable opponents. The Lakers exerted a lot of energy in last night’s game vs Indiana, with this being their 2nd game in two nights I think certain players will be rested. If that’s the case, then backing Chicago makes way more sense here. Bulls to cover.

Lakers vs Bulls prediction: Bulls +3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Oklahoma City Thunder will be looking to extend their winning streak to 8 games when they entertain the Memphis Grizzlies at the Paycom Center on Thursday night. Thanks to its 7-game surge and a record of 14-1 in its last 15 outings, Oklahoma City is now in sole possession of the best record in basketball at 60-12 (Cleveland is 58-14 after losing 4 of its last 6). The Thunder boast a 13.5-game lead atop the Western Conference standings, but they obviously aren’t going to call off the dogs quite yet given that it is only March 27. Whereas OKC is beginning a 4-game home-stand, Memphis is concluding a 5-game road trip. There is a lot to like about the home team in this spot, so my Grizzlies vs Thunder pick is Oklahoma City to win and cover.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a massive favorite to NBA MVP. The Canadian has been on fire basically all season long and has been especially hot of late with at least 30 points in 10 of the last 12 contests. This stretch features 4 performances with at least 40 points (1 of which was a 51-point outburst). As if SGA and the Thunder need any help, Jalen Williams (hip) has a chance to return tonight after missing the last 7 games because of a hip injury. Oklahoma City’s 2 most recent home wins have come by 35 and 33 points, plus it just destroyed Sacramento by 16 points on the road earlier this week. In 3 head-to-head meetings this season, the Thunder are 3-0 and have won by 24, 13 and 17 points. And, oh yeah, the Grizzlies are without Ja Morant due to a hamstring problem. Give me OKC to win big.

Grizzlies vs Thunder prediction: Oklahoma City -10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -11.

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The Pittsburgh Penguins hit the road for Western New York on Thursday evening. So far this season, the Penguins have had their way with the Buffalo Sabres, winning both meetings, including a 5-2 rout as short ‘dogs (-105) on Jan. 17 at KeyBank Center in the most recent encounter as the Over (6) cashed. The Over hit in the first meeting in the Steel City, too, a 6-5 victory in overtime. So, if you’re cobbling together a same-game parlay (SGP), looking to the Over, as well as the Penguins, isn’t a bad way to go.

For the Sabres, they’ve won each of the past two games, and they’re certainly not throwing in the towel on the season. Sadly for Buffalo fans, it is much too little and too late, and we’ve seen the Sabres finish strong before, providing some hope, only to yank the rug out from under the feet of their faithful. Buffalo topped the Ottawa Senators 3-2 last time out as moderate underdogs (+140) on Tuesday behind veteran James Reimer, and that came on the heels of a 5-3 road victory against the Winnipeg Jets as a humungous underdog (+245) on Sunday. The Sabres are a respectable 4-2-0 in the past six games, too. However, they just haven’t been able to figure out the Penguins, and we’ll keep backing Pittsburgh until Buffalo figures out how to top the Pens.

Penguins vs Sabres prediction: Penguins ML (+115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +105.

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The Montreal Canadiens make the second stop on a four-game road trip against the Philadelphia Flyers at Wells Fargo Center. The Habs are currently in the eighth position in the Eastern Conference playoff race, occupying the final wild-card spot by just one point over the New York Islanders, although Montreal has a game in hand. The Habs also had a one game lead on the New York Rangers, with two games in hand. There are several other teams giving chase, too. The Flyers aren’t one of them, however, as they’re 10 points back with just nine games remaining.

The Canadiens are coming off a 6-1 beating in St. Louis, and they’re 0-1-2 in the past 3 games. Montreal did win 4-3 in the first meeting of the season with Philadelphia at Wells Fargo Center on Oct. 27 as a moderate underdog (+155) as the Over (6.5) cashed. It has won three in a row in the series, and five of the past seven encounters, too. The Flyers have been scuffling hard, going 0-5-1 in the past 6 games, including a 7-2 loss at Toronto on Tuesday. The Flyers have allowed 7 goals apiece in each of the past two games, too. The Habs are playing for a playoff spot, while the Flyers look like they’ve already thrown in the towel. We’ll take Montreal on the money line.

Canadiens vs Flyers prediction: Canadiens ML (-130) available at time of publishing. Playable to -140.

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The Los Angeles Kings and Colorado Avalanche are set for a Western Conference matchup from Ball Arena in Denver on Thursday night. The Kings enter this matchup with wins in 9 of their last 10 games thanks in large part to strong defensive play. Los Angeles has allowed just 1.6 goals per game over its last 10 contests, and the penalty killing unit is operating at a 87.1% clip during that stretch. It’s no secret that Colorado boasts a deep forward group that can light the lamp in a hurry, but with the way Los Angeles is playing defensively right now, they could stymie Nathan MacKinnon and company in this one.

On the other side, Colorado has done a good job of limiting chances for its opponents lately as well. The Avalanche have held their opponents to 24 shots on goal or less in 7 of their last 10 games. The Kings’ offense has not traveled well this season, as they are scoring just 2.49 goals per game away from home, which ranks 27th in the NHL. In what could be a tight, physical game, look to the Under.

Kings vs Avalanche prediction: Under 5.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -110.

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The first game of the Sweet 16 takes us to the East Region in New Jersey for a BYU Cougars vs Alabama Crimson Tide prediction. The Crimson Tide are part of the SEC’s steamrolling of the tournament, and they got here with wins over Robert Morris and St. Mary’s. St. Mary’s is a slow, defensive-minded team, but the Tide will have to change gears completely when planning for BYU. The Cougars dispatched VCU in the opening round before outgunning Wisconsin in round 2 via a 91-89 decision. These 2 teams are probably going to blow out the lights on the scoreboard. My BYU vs Alabama prediction, however, is for the Tide to ultimately win and cover.

Alabama plays at the fastest tempo in the country. Head coach Nate Oates’ method of basketball is straightforward: do something fast, and operate in volume. The Tide will shoot 3s or layups and little else. They also pressure the ball defensively and get a lot of transition looks. BYU shares some similarities. The Cougars do not play as fast, but they are one of the most prolific 3-point shooting teams in the nation. You know the modern basketball axiom: 3 points are worth more than 2 points, and both teams like to prove it true. Here’s the decisive factor for me, though: the Tide defend the arc at an elite level. They chase teams off the line, and they make those outside looks tough. I think that is the difference in the game. If BYU has a downturn in its ability to hit 3s, as I expect it will, Alabama should eventually pull away. I like the Tide to win and cover.

BYU vs Alabama prediction: Alabama -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Terrapins have had their fair share of tough beats this season, and what seemed like another heartbreaking defeat turned into a thrilling win when freshman Derik Queen took the ball with just 3.7 seconds left and scored the game-winning layup to defeat Colorado State. The Terrapins aren’t the only ones who were lucky to be moving on, as the Gators had a tough time against the Huskies in the second round, winning by just 2 points despite shooting 46% from the field. Can we say both teams are lucky to have made it to the Sweet 16? Absolutely. However, it shouldn’t be considered a fluke that they’ve made it this far based on their performances all season long.  

According to KenPom, the Gators are ranked 2nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, while Maryland sits at 22nd. On the defensive end, KenPom has Maryland ranked 6th in defense where the Gators are close behind at 11th. The Terrapins likely would have earned a higher seed in this tournament if it weren’t for their buzzer-beater losses to Michigan State and Michigan, as well as a heartbreaking three-pointer by OSU with just a few seconds left. This Maryland team is loaded with talent, with all 5 of their starters averaging double digits this season.

The same can be said about Florida, with 4 of their starters averaging double digits, but I think the big difference here is each team’s ability to shoot the ball from beyond the arc. Florida loves to shoot the three-ball, hitting 35.6% of their shots from deep and holding their opponents to just 29.3%. As for Maryland, they don’t shoot it as much as Florida, but they’re shooting 37.5% from deep while holding their opponents to just 30.2%. I think this game is going to be a close one, but I believe the Gators have the advantage in rebounding the ball along with their ability to shoot the ball from deep. Give me the Gators to cover and march on to the Elite 8.

Maryland vs Florida prediction: Florida -6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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We’ve got a massive matchup on our hands in the Sweet 16 on Thursday, as the Arizona Wildcats will square off against the #1 seed Duke Blue Devils in the East Region. Arizona is fresh off a hard-fought victory over former Pac-12 rival Oregon, but it sure wasn’t easy, as the Wildcats needed to rally from an early double-digit deficit and hit all of their free throws late to secure a berth in the Sweet 16. As for Duke, it was business as usual for the Blue Devils in a dominant victory over Baylor on Sunday. Duke has undoubtedly looked like a juggernaut in this tournament, which has inflated this number a bit in the market. While the Blue Devils are the deserving national title favorite heading into this game, it’s important to remember that this will be the toughest matchup this team has faced in the postseason by a considerable margin.

On paper, this Arizona team has the athletes to compete with the Blue Devils’ elite talent at all positions, and while that is easier said than done, the Wildcats also have the advantage of clicking at the right time heading into this contest. Following the win over Oregon, head coach Tommy Lloyd’s team has now won 4 of their last 5 games, while also playing some of their best defense of the season in that span. Compared to what Duke faced in the lowly ACC this season, the cumulative wear and tear of a full Big 12 conference slate has seemed to strengthen the resolve of this Arizona team and given it some much-needed belief heading into this game. The Wildcats should be able to hang in this game thanks to their top-10 offense (Barttorvik), excellent offensive rebounding profile (15th in OREB percentage) and another good game from Caleb Love, who is known to be inconsistent. With that said, if Arizona can get second chance points and get to the line consistently, the Wildcats will have a chance to win this one outright.

On the other side, Duke is obviously a complete team, one that certainly looks like the best in the nation. However, the big unknown in this game is how Jon Scheyer’s team will adjust to finally playing a top 15 caliber team. It’s hard to account for the step-up in competition that the Blue Devils will see in this game, as the last time Duke played a team that was anywhere near Arizona’s weight class from a talent and/or statistical perspective, it lost outright to Clemson back in early February. While I don’t expect Duke to slip up and lose outright, Arizona is certainly a live underdog and should do enough to keep things close on Thursday.

Arizona vs Duke prediction: Arizona +9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 9.

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To start off our March Madness Sweet 16 parlay for Thursday’s action, let’s go in a unique direction and navigate to the “First Half Winner/Full Time Winner Parlay” section of this game between Maryland and Florida. Both of these teams needed to escape their Round of 32 matchups on Sunday, with each team winning by one possession to squeak by their opponents and into the second weekend. However, it’s certainly not a fluke that either team is in this game when looking at their resume from a season-long perspective. Florida is undoubtedly one of the best teams in the country, and the Gators’ metrics certainly support that assertion (2nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom). On the other side, Maryland boasts one of the best starting lineups in the nation, which gives the Terps the capability to play with any team.

Following their lackluster 1st half against Colorado State, I’m expecting a strong start for the Terrapins in this game, led by their excellent starting 5. However, where Maryland gets in trouble in this matchup is its lack of depth. All it takes is foul trouble or fatigue to creep in and the Terrapins could be forced to turn to their lackluster bench, which leaves them operating at a major disadvantage in this game when compared to Florida’s excellent depth. The Gators’ positional flexibility up front and tremendous rotation of guards gives them a massive leg up as the game goes along, so there’s a real chance that Maryland plays well enough to be leading at the half, before the overall depth and talent of Florida takes over in the final 10-20 minutes.

For the second leg of our March Madness Sweet 16 parlay, let’s target Arizona to keep things within single digits against the top-seeded Duke Blue Devils. Duke has undoubtedly looked like a juggernaut in this tournament, which has inflated this number a bit in the market. However, while the Blue Devils are the deserving national title favorite heading into this game, it’s important to remember that this will be the toughest matchup this team has faced in the postseason by a considerable margin.

On paper, this Arizona team has the athletes to compete with the Blue Devils’ elite talent at all positions and the Wildcats should be able to hang in this game thanks to their top-10 offense (BartTorvik) and excellent offensive rebounding profile (15th in OREB percentage). The true x-factor will be the game Arizona gets from Caleb Love, who is playing some of the best basketball of his career in recent weeks.

As for the Blue Devils, this is obviously a complete team, one that certainly looks like the best in the nation. However, the big unknown in this game is how Jon Scheyer’s side will adjust to finally playing a top 10-15 caliber team. It’s hard to account for the step-up in competition that the Blue Devils will see in this game, as the last time Duke played a team that was anywhere near Arizona’s weight class from a talent perspective, it lost as a favorite against Clemson back in early February. While I don’t expect Duke to slip up and lose outright, Arizona should do enough to keep things close on Thursday.

There are 7 Sweet 16 teams from the SEC, but only 2 are going head-to-head. The Tennessee Volunteers and Kentucky Wildcats will be facing each other for the 3rd time this season when they battle for a spot in the Elite 8 on Friday night at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Outside of the top teams in the nation, whom Tennessee obviously won’t run into as a #2 seed until at least the Elite 8, Kentucky is the last opponent the Volunteers would want to face at this stage. The Wildcats swept the regular-season series with a 78-73 road win followed by a 75-64 victory at Rupp Arena. Are those results repeatable? Probably. Kentucky held Tennessee to a combined 14-for-61 (23 percent) shooting from three-point range in those 2 contests. That is nothing out of the ordinary for the ‘Cats, who are 24th in the nation in three-point defense (30.6 percent).

Kentucky is better than its 24-11 (10-8 SEC) record suggests. Former San Diego State guard Lamont Butler missed 9 games due to injury but is looking better by the day. After doing nothing in Round 1 against Troy, Butler delivered 14 points, 5 assists, 2 rebounds and 3 steals during an 84-75 victory over Illinois. Tennessee, which ousted Wofford and UCLA in the first 2 rounds, is also playing well. However, this is clearly a matchup the Vols do not love. Is Kentucky going to beat conference rival Tennessee for the 3rd time this season? Maybe, maybe not. But getting 4.5 points, the value is definitely with UK.

Kentucky vs Tennessee prediction: Kentucky +4.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3.5.

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It was a wild weekend for the Michigan Wolverines. They nearly blew a double-digit lead to UC San Diego on Thursday, scoring just 27 second-half points and ultimately winning by only 3. Then in the round of 32, the Wolverines faced a 10-point second-half deficit against Texas A&M before going on a torrid run – scoring 46 points in the final 15 minutes of the game while outscoring the Aggies 30-16 over the final 10 minutes. Head coach Dusty May and his squad now advance to the Sweet 16 in Atlanta to play the #1 overall seed Auburn Tigers less than 2 hours up I-85 from their own campus. While Michigan’s fanbase tends to travel well, I’m expecting there to be a heavy Auburn contingent at State Farm Arena. Michigan typically overpowers its opponents with size in the front court thanks to its dueling 7-footers in Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin, but Auburn has the size to match the Wolverines in the post. Johni Broome and Dylan Cardwell are 2 of the better post defenders in the country, both boasting top 50 marks in KenPom’s block rate out of 2,300+ Division 1 players. Head coach Bruce Pearl will also likely use Chaney Johnson on Wolf for a bit, as Johnson has freakish athleticism that would be well-utilized against the versatile Michigan big man. 

The Tigers have the advantage in this matchup when it comes to reliability from the 3-point line and in the turnover department. While Michigan has been a little bit better at taking care of the ball in the postseason, the Wolverines are still 324th in turnover rate this season, and their 14 turnovers against the Tritons in the first round almost cost them the game. Moreover, the Wolverines only have 2 real perimeter threats in Nimari Burnett and former-Tiger Tre Donaldson. On the other end, Auburn simply doesn’t give the ball away. In fact, the Tigers are pretty much the polar opposite of Michigan, as they turn the ball over on less than 14 percent of their possessions – which is 5th nationally. The Tigers also have 4 shooters that knock down at least 38% of their perimeter shots on at least 135 attempts. I see a path to success here for the Wolverines, but it would require an uncharacteristically good shooting night in combination with one of their lowest turnover rates of the season. That is a lot to ask against a deep Auburn team that gets it done on both ends of the floor and has been playing together for a couple years. Give me the Tigers to win by 10+ and advance to the Elite 8.

Michigan vs Auburn prediction: Auburn -8.5 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable to -9.5. 

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The Midwest Region has almost gone all chalk to this point, which sets up a very intriguing matchup between the Houston Cougars and Purdue Boilermakers in the Sweet 16 on Friday. These teams have taken very different paths to get to this point, with Purdue knocking off a couple of double-digit seeds in High Point and McNeese State, while Houston had to go through a dramatically under-seeded Gonzaga team in the Round of 32. The Cougars are certainly the more battled-tested team to to this point, and Gonzaga even profiles as a significantly better team than Purdue according to the predictive metrics. I’m certainly inclined to agree with the likes of KenPom, BartTorvik, EvanMiya and others, which certainly doesn’t hurt my handicap for this game. Given that this contest is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, this is something of a home game for Purdue, a rare sight for the lower seed in a second weekend tournament game. However, that doesn’t dissuade me from backing the much better team, specifically on the defensive side of the ball, in a game where Houston’s physicality, coaching and dominance on the glass should win out.

Purdue was able to systematically break down its first couple of opponents in the tournament with an excellent offensive gameplan, something that Matt Painter has excelled at over the years. However, Purdue was fortunate enough to get great matchups against defenses that were willing to give Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn plenty of space to get off the shots they were most comfortable with. While the Boilermakers’ offense is excellent, this Houston defense is the best in the nation by any metric, and they are not one to make things easy on their opponents. Not only will this easily be Purdue’s stiffest test yet, but the Boilermakers will be in trouble on the other side of the ball as well. This Purdue defense is possibly the worst unit remaining in the tournament, particularly when it comes to defending the rim (341st in two-point defense per BartTorvik). That doesn’t bode well against a Houston team just got a terrific effort from J’wan Roberts in the paint against a better Gonzaga defense. Ultimately, Houston should establish itself as the better team over the first 20 minutes and go on to win this one comfortably in the second half.

Purdue vs Houston prediction: Houston -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 8.

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