Parlays

The Orioles have the advantage in the bullpen (3.58 reliever FIP to 4.19) and on defense (6th in Defensive Runs Saved to 15th). They have been respectable on offense over the last 30 days (100 wRC+), so plenty of runs should be expected tonight – especially against the Twins’ bullpen. Minnesota relievers allowed 5 runs in the last 2 innings against the Guardians on Monday. Baltimore has won the last 2 meetings with Minnesota, so getting the visitors at this price is too good to pass up.

Although they rank in the bottom 10 of MLB in runs scored, the Mariners are 9th in weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) – a massive disconnect. Consider it only a matter of time before that leads to more runs scored, and this is the perfect spot. Oakland starter James Kaprielian has been one of the worst pitchers in all of baseball. Add in Oakland’s bullpen struggles and the time is clearly now for the runs to start coming for Seattle. Although Mariners starter Marco Gonzales’ peripherals (5.14 SIERA) aren’t much better than Kaprielian’s, he is a pitcher who naturally allows a low batting average on balls in play (BABIP) due to inducing a lot of weak pop-ups (11.3% infield fly ball rate). Plus, no team in baseball has a lower wRC+ than the A’s.

With a 5.60 ERA in 7 starts, it has been a rollercoaster year for San Diego starter Blake Snell. However, there are reasons to be optimistic. For starters, Snell’s changeup (.461 wOBA allowed in 2021) has always been a pitch he struggles to command and he seems to have recognized that by throwing it less than 5% of the time in his last 2 starts. Considering how lethal his slider (42.5% whiff rate) and curveball (50% whiff rate) are, that is a major positive. This should be a good pitching matchup between Snell and Tony Gonsolin. If it stays a low-scoring affair, there is no reason why the Padres can’t pull it out late for an upset over their division rivals. A sizable +160 price is intriguing.

The NL East has become one of the stronger divisions in baseball, but this series features the 2 teams at the bottom. The Nationals have anchored the last-place spot virtually all season yet are in a solid spot to open up this series. The pricing of this game itself speaks volumes. Washington has one of the worst records in all of baseball, but Friday night’s game is a pick ‘em or close to it, depending on the sportsbook. It’s even more surprising given what these teams are known for. The Marlins’ are thought of as a team with one of the best starting rotations, while the Nats are widely considered one of the worst.

However, this series opener is a rare situation of the matchup being relatively — if not even in Washington’s favor. Miami’s Trevor Rogers has not lived up to expectations and is a far cry from ace Sandy Alcantara. The lefty has a 5.86 ERA and hasn’t pitched more than 5.0 innings in a start since mid-May. The Nationals are giving the former Dodger Josiah Gray the start on Friday night. He is coming off of a 2-run, 7.0-inning start in which he struck out 9 batters. Gray has also allowed just 4 earned runs over his last 5 starts. There are plenty of different ranking systems, but he has gotten a +20 or better boost on most lists over the last month. The Nats haven’t been able to win his most recent starts, but he still has 6 wins on the year — double that of Rogers. Now with Gray’s lineup having a good matchup to provide run support, he should be getting win number 7 by game’s end.   

*Nationals ML at -110 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.*

Taking the run line on a home team can cause hesitation due to potentially losing half an inning, so there is also no problem taking the expensive money line to play it safe. However, the Mets have proven that they can produce enough runs to beat any team by more than 1 run. After having to face the Astros and their elite pitching staff, New York should enjoy its weekend series against the Rangers. Houston has the league’s best bullpen and had elite starters Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander pitching against the Mets. Texas will be starting Glenn Otto, who is hardly comparable to those 2 pitchers.

After being forced to spend time on the COVID-19 list, Otto missed some time before returning in his start against the Nationals on Sunday. Whether the time off was the issue or not, Otto allowed 6 runs in just 2.0 innings against Washington — a team at the bottom of the Mets’ division. Not only has New York been atop the NL East all season, but they have also been atop the league in runs scored for the majority of the last month. That’s a scary combination for Texas, which just lost to the Royals in its last game. The Rangers won that series overall, but the Mets are in a completely different class than Kansas City. New York should perform up to that level with Chris Bassitt on the mound. He has pitched at least 6.0 innings in 4 of his last 5 starts, providing relief to an already solid bullpen. Bassitt isn’t quite Max Scherzer, but he can pitch well enough for Pete Alonso and company to support him.    

*Mets -1.5 at +120 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.*

After winning their series against the Dodgers, the Rockies have been hanging out at home awaiting the Diamondbacks. They will be taking on L.A. following this series and then Arizona once again. That’s a lot of familiarity, and Colorado can prove its success against the Dodgers was no fluke. The Rockies opened up the season by taking them down, and the Diamondbacks are not the same caliber of team. Arizona was just shut out at home in its last game and lost a home series to a struggling Tigers team prior to that.

If the Diamondbacks can’t handle the league’s lowest-scoring team, there’s no reason to believe they can take down the Rockies in Coors Field. Arizona’s Merrill Kelly was a part of the problem in that series loss to the Tigers. He gave up 4 runs to a bad Detroit lineup in that series opener, and Colorado can give him fits in this series opener. Kelly has not been their worst option, but he has also taken on the Tigers, Pirates, and Reds twice in 4 of his last 5 starts. The Rockies may not be leading the division, but they have a solid lineup. Kris Bryant has also returned, providing a boost to Colorado. The Rocks will be providing run support for Antonio Senzatela. He’s no ace, either, but the Diamondbacks’ lineup has not been consistent. They are one of the league’s worst in terms of strikeouts and Senzatela also won’t be giving up free bases. He is one of the best in terms of walk percentage, something Arizona relies on (it has done so the 6th-most in the league). This may be a battle of the bottom of the NL West, but the Rockies should come out on top. 

*Rockies ML at -115 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.*