Parlays

Apart from the Nuggets vs Lakers series, this one appears to be the most lopsided one in the first round. The Thunder are the more talented team, plus they have health on their side with Zion Williamson likely missing the entire series for New Orleans. After that feel out game in the series opener, the young Thunder players have now settled in and the postseason debut jitters are out of the way.

For the Pelicans this is basically a must win game, just like it was for the Lakers in their Game 3 vs Denver. Things aren’t looking bright from a Pels perspective here, they’ve covered the spread only once in their last 7 home games, while in head-to-head meetings vs OKC they’re 0-9 ATS in the last 9 played. Brandon Ingram still appears to be bothered by his knee injury, he has not scored 20 points in his last 5 outings. I have the Thunder covering in Game 3.

Everyone expects a bounce back performance from the Celtics here, but from a betting perspective it makes way more sense to go with Miami. The Heat torched the Cs from downtown in Game 2, knocking down a record 23 threes in a 10-point win. Unlike Joe Mazzulla, Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra has actually been in situations like this which gives the Heat an edge in the coaching department.

Obviously not a lot of people see the Heat winning this series, but after watching that Game 2 performance I think they can push the Celtics to at least 6 games here. Kristaps Porzingis was neutralized in Game 2, he Heat players executed the gameplan to perfection. Adjustments will be made for Game 3, but if Miami continues shooting like that they’ll be hard to beat here. I’ll give the Heat the benefit of the doubt and back them to win their first home game of the postseason.

I hate to say it, but it’s time to bring out the brooms. The Lakers looked absolutely demoralized in Game 3 in front of their home fans, blowing yet another double-digit lead against the Nuggets. Denver just owns this team and I think it’s a mental thing at this point, 11 straight losses against the same team can get into your head.

Whatever the Lakers throw at them, the defending champs have a counter for it. The Lakers bench has been a no show this entire series and now with D’Angelo Russell seemingly disconnected with the starting unit, I’m just not sure where the points come from in Game 4. We saw this movie last season, I thought Game 3 was the Lakers’ best opportunity to get a win, but I think we’re headed towards a sweep here.

The sixth-seeded Pacers aim to take a 2-1 series lead on Friday night after tying up the best-of-7 series against the Bucks with a 125-108 win in Game 2. Indiana finds itself favored by 5 points at home with Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) and potentially Khris Middleton (ankle) still sidelined for the Bucks. Milwaukee’s defensive struggles in Game 2 — allowing Indiana to shoot 55.6% from the field and 44% from 3 — are a major concern against a Pacers offense that finished the regular season second in offensive rating (122.2). Without 2 of its most potent offensive weapons, Milwaukee likely lacks the firepower to keep pace with Indiana.

Damian Lillard has valiantly kept the Bucks competitive, scoring 35 and 34 points in the series, but their offense sputters in Antetokounmpo’s absence. Given Milwaukee’s porous defense in Game 2, I have more faith in head coach Rick Carlisle’s squad getting the job done at home and taking a 2-1 series lead. I’m backing the Pacers to win and cover.

Pacers -5.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Download the Pickswise app to get our picks and best bets for every game, every day.

Game 3 of the Western Conference matchup between the Los Angeles Clippers and the Dallas Mavericks will be played Friday night in the primetime spot in Dallas. The Clippers won Game 1 109-97 behind a 28-point performance from James Harden. Harden looked like his old self and the Mavericks had no answer for him or for big man Ivica Zubac. Zubac dominated the inside and did whatever he pleased with 20 points and 15 rebounds. The Mavericks answered by winning Game 2 96-93. Kawhi Leonard returned in this game, but even the Klaw couldn’t slow down Luka Doncic. Doncic scored 32 points and Kyrie Irving contributed 23 points to even this series back up. As this series shifts back to Dallas, all eyes are on Los Angeles to regain home-court advantage. Tonight is by no means a must-win situation, but the Clippers will really have their back against the wall in Game 4 if they lose tonight.

We may have seen the worst game of the series for the Los Angeles Clippers in Game 2. They were sloppy and missed plenty of shots. The Clippers only shot 36.8 percent from the field in Game 2 and went 8-for-30 from 3-point range. Even with the shooting struggles, they were able to hang around. Doncic was finally able to put the Clippers away with a late triple to secure the victory. I expect head coach Tyronn Lue and the Clippers to make the necessary adjustments on Friday. For the first seven quarters of this series, Zubac has been the most influential and dominant player in this series. He has completely played Daniel Gafford off the floor in this series. Gafford only played 9 minutes in Game 2. It wasn’t until PJ Washington stepped up in the fourth quarter that Zubac was able to be contained. It was also the return game for Kawhi Leonard. Leonard only managed to contribute 15 points, but now that he has a full game played under his belt since returning, he should be in a better position to lead the Clippers. Game 2 included too much isolation offense for the Clippers and I believe that will be readjusted for tonight’s game. I believe we will see a more rhythmic offense from Los Angeles and their stars. I have the Clips covering.

Clippers +4.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Download the Pickswise app to get our picks and best bets for every game, every day.

It might not have looked pretty, but the Minnesota Timberwolves have managed to win both games against the Suns and find themselves in the driver’s seat as the 2 teams are set to meet in Game 3 on Friday. Minnesota is 3rd in both offensive and defensive rating through 2 games of this postseason, plus it boasts the best Net Rating out of all the teams that have played 2 games so far. Even with Anthony Edwards struggling on offense, the Timberwolves still won Game 2 by 12 points. Jaden McDaniels stepped up with 25 points on 10-for-17 shooting. Winning game 3 would be a massive step toward the conference semifinals, but this will by far be the hardest game of this season for the young Timberwolves. Are they up for the task?

Kevin Durant will certainly have something to say about that. The Suns have endured a lot of bad luck so far in this series. Leading 3-point shooter Grayson Allen sprained his ankle in both games and is likely to be out for several weeks. The lowest-scoring bench through the regular season is also struggling in the playoffs, so I’m looking at the big 3 of Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal to pick up the slack. This will be a familiar feeling for Phoenix, as it found itself in a 2-0 hole in last season’s series against Denver — after which the Suns were able to come back with consecutive wins. I know it’s hard to justify backing a team after seeing them fail to crack the 100-point mark in back-to-back games, but this series is far from over. I’ll take the Suns to cover in Game 3.

Suns -4 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Download the Pickswise app to get our picks and best bets for every game, every day.

The Blue Jays return to their home turf to face the Los Angeles Dodgers for what promises to be an exciting matchup. Coming off a challenging series against the Royals in which they lost 3 out of 4 games and scored only 10 runs, the Blue Jays are eager to turn things around. Meanwhile, the Dodgers swept the Nationals in their recent 3-game series and are determined to maintain their momentum.

Both teams have seen improvements in their pitching of late. Over the last 7 days the Blue Jays have posted a team ERA of 2.41 with a WHIP of 1.23, while the Dodgers have recorded a team ERA of 2.67 and a WHIP of 1.24.  However, the standout difference lies in the lineup strength. The Dodgers have one of the toughest lineups in the majors, with a robust .269 team batting average and .784 OPS. In contrast, the Blue Jays have struggled offensively with a .231 team batting average and a .684 OPS.

On the mound the Dodgers will rely on Gavin Stone, who holds a 1-1 record this season with a 6.00 ERA. The Blue Jays will counter with Chris Bassitt, who is 2-3 with a 3.90 ERA. While the Blue Jays may have a slight pitching advantage, the Dodgers lineup still poses a significant challenge. Despite Toronto’s efforts, the Dodgers’ offensive power is likely to test their pitching staff and should be able to score enough runs to secure a victory in today’s matchup at the Rogers Centre. 

Dodgers ML at -120 available at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

Download the Pickswise app to get our picks and best bets for every game, every day.

The St. Louis Cardinals are off a home series win against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The offense has been a letdown this season. They are second to last in home runs and near the bottom in scoring overall, too. That is not good enough to carry a pitching staff that is in the lower half of the league. First baseman Paul Goldschmidt is hitting just .200, continuing the decline we saw last season. The New York Mets won on Wednesday to avoid a sweep at the San Francisco Giants. It was the first time in 3 games that they scored more than a couple of runs. Shortstop Francisco Lindor hit a couple of homers in the win, but he is still struggling overall. He is 30 now and I am wondering how much he has left to be honest. 

When St. Louis starter Miles Mikolas is at his best, he is inducing soft contact. When he is at his worst he is getting hit all over the yard. It has been more of the latter in 2024. In 3 of 5 starts he has given up 5 earned runs. Meanwhile, the Mets’ Jose Butto has no decisions this season but he has pitched really well. Best of all, the Mets are 3-0 in his starts. The 21 Ks in just 16.0 innings definitely plays. 

The Mets are just modest favorites at home. I like what I am seeing from Butto a lot and the feeling around the team has changed a lot after that tough start. The opposite is true for the Cardinals. I see the offensive talent but there has not been much production. I do not want to bet on it suddenly coming on the road. 

Mets ML at -135 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Download the Pickswise app to get our picks and best bets for every game, every day.

The San Diego Padres (14-13) return home looking to rebound after a crushing collapse against the Rockies on Thursday. They will have the perfect opportunity Friday night when they host the Philadelphia Phillies (16-10) at Petco Park. San Diego squandered a 9-4 8th-inning lead in Thursday’s 10-9 loss, coughing up 6 runs in the final 2 frames. It was a bitter defeat, but one the talented Padres should use as motivation. Back at home, they’ll be determined to get back on track against Philadelphia. The Padres have the offensive firepower to give Aaron Nola problems. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado anchor a lineup that ranks 5th in the majors in OPS (.799). Nola has been unhittable lately with a 1.67 ERA over his last 4 starts, but San Diego’s patience and pop could cool him off.

On the mound for the Padres is Joe Musgrove, who has fared well historically against the Phillies despite his 5.74 ERA this year. Over 5 career starts he is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA versus Philadelphia. Musgrove’s splitter has been an effective putaway pitch, holding the current Phillies roster to a .125 average against it. With the sting of the Colorado collapse surely motivating them, look for the Padres to play with an edge. Their combination of starting pitching and explosive bats position them well to bounce back and take the series opener from the streaking Phillies. I’m backing San Diego on the money line.

Padres ML at -105 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Download the Pickswise app to get our picks and best bets for every game, every day.

The New York Rangers and Washington Capitals lace up for a pivotal Game 3 in their Metropolitan Division playoff round. New York, as expected, has gained a 2-0 series lead and has outscored Washington 8-4. The Capitals played much better in Game 2 and are now on home ice, but will it be enough to earn a win with their backs against the wall? We are about to find out.

It is very difficult to go against the Rangers, as they do so much right and are a very deep team. However, Washington is basically playing for its playoff life — so I expect a good push. On home ice in front of a proud building of fans, the Capitals should be fully filled with energy to give them something to cheer for. The early part of the game is crucial, because if the Caps can jump out to a quick lead New York could be on its heels. Plus, captain Alex Ovechkin has been extremely quiet with just one shot in 2 games and he is not the type of player to go down without a fight. All it will take to keep this one close is hard work, and I believe this Capitals roster can produce that. Not many teams sweep a series 4-0 these days, as the league is full of parity, so I’ll take Washington to get a win in Game 3.

Capitals ML at +145 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Download the Pickswise app to get our picks and best bets for every game, every day.

This first-round Western Conference playoff series between the Vancouver Canucks and Nashville Predators heads to Nashville, and the series is all tied up. Vancouver had all the momentum in Game 1, but Nashville quickly scooped it back in Game 2. The tide seems to be shifting in the series, so this contest will be extremely important to see who jumps to a 2-1 series lead.

With starting goaltender Thatcher Demko being injured, this really changes the outlook of the Canucks. It was seen right away in Game 2, as they gave up 4 goals while scoring just 1. Unfortunately for Vancouver, I see this trend continuing. Nashville was the hottest team in the league exiting the regular season and has continued its swagger. Returning home for the next 2 games is huge, and the Predators know they have a very good chance at continuing a special run. Pressure is rising in Vancouver following an extremely strong season, so the Canucks have to show what makes their team so strong. As far as Game 3 goes, I’ll take the gritty Predators to earn a 2-1 series lead.

Predators ML at -110 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Download the Pickswise app to get our picks and best bets for every game, every day.

The Edmonton Oilers travel to Los Angeles to take on the Kings in Game 3 of the Western Conference playoffs. Los Angeles secured a 5-4 overtime victory in the last game to steal home-ice advantage and is hoping to keep things rolling tonight. The Kings have given up 11 goals in 2 games, but that doesn’t matter. What matters is winning hockey games and they came back home with a positive result. Edmonton is going to score goals — there’s no question about that — but for L.A. it’s all about limiting Connor McDavid.

He has 6 points in 2 games, but 5 games in the 1st one. He’s an elite hockey player who you just hope you can contain. He’s been unstoppable on home ice, but things are different when he goes on the road. He scored just 9 goals on the season when he wasn’t at home, which may not be a concern, but it’s way down from his home numbers. Anze Kopitar and Philipp Danault are 2 very good 2-way centers who can keep up with the best players in the world. They have the advantage in this game and will need to play as a team to keep McDavid at bay. If you can prevent him from doing what he does best, then you can slow everyone else on his line down. It may not be easy, but I believe the Kings can come away with a win.

Kings ML at +120 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Download the Pickswise app to get our picks and best bets for every game, every day.

The best pitching matchup of the night takes place in Boston, Massachusetts. Shota Imanaga will take the hill for the Cubs and he will be countered by Kutter Crawford of the Red Sox. Following his first 4 starts of the season, Imanaga owns a 0.84 ERA and 0.75 WHIP and has dominated some of the best lineups in baseball already. The Japanese sensation took on the star-studded Dodgers lineup a few weeks ago, and he threw 4.0 shutout innings while allowing just 2 hits. The lefty’s fastball and splitter has taken the league by storm, and that combination should continue to be a problem against the Red Sox.

The Red Sox have had a disappointing — but not unexpected — start of the season. Countless injuries have plagued the Sox lineup and starting rotation in just the first month. However, there has been a silver lining: Kutter Crawford. The right-hander has had a breakout season so far, as he has posted a 0.66 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in his first 5 starts. He has allowed more than 3 hits in an outing just once, and at Fenway Park, he has surrendered just 4 hits in 10.2 innings. This game should feature only a few runs, so I’m taking the under with confidence.

Logan Allen was a key piece of Cleveland’s youth movement last season. He posted a 3.81 ERA with a 22.2% strikeout rate in 24 starts. However, he hasn’t been the same pitcher in 2024. Allen owns a 5.06 ERA with a 10.8% barrel rate and just a 18.6% strikeout rate so far this season. The lefty has already allowed 6 home runs in 26.2 innings, which is alarming since he allowed 16 in over 120 innings last year. That’s even more worrisome since he’s facing the Braves on Friday night.

Chris Sale looks 5 years younger in a Braves uniform. The former Red Sox ace has been the perfect addition to the Atlanta starting rotation, posting a 3.57 xERA with a 1.05 WHIP in his first 4 starts. His strikeout rate is back to normal and his ground-ball rate is back to near 50%, which gives me the confidence that he is finally fully healthy. In Atlanta, Sale is 2-0 with a 3.65 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. Sale and the Braves should be able to run the Guardians out of the stadium.

According to advanced metrics, Joe Musgrove has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season. Musgrove ranks in the 6th percentile in xERA, 5th percentile in xBA, 36% percentile in barrel rate and 19th percentile in strikeout rate. Plus, his ground-ball rate is just 39.2%. That’s the first time his ground-ball rate has below 40% in his 9-year career. In summary, Musgrove is getting hit harder than ever and hasn’t been able to get the weak contact he’s been known to get.

The Phillies had a slow start to the season. However, I wasn’t worried and I’m glad I didn’t jump the gun. Philadelphia has won 8 of its last 10 games and the lineup has finally woken up. Part of that is Bryce Harper returning after being on the paternity list, so the lineup is finally full again. Trea Turner and J.T. Realmuto have been phenomenal in the middle of the order. Philly ranks 4th in OPS in the last 7 days, so I’m confident backing its bats against Musgrove on Friday — especially with Aaron Nola on the bump.