UFC on ABC 2: Marvin Vettori vs. Kevin Holland Predictions

UFC on ABC 2: Marvin Vettori vs. Kevin Holland
Sat 4/10 5:00 ET
UFC on ABC 2: Marvin Vettori vs. Kevin Holland
UFC APEX

Pickswise's Expert Predictions & Analysis

Fight Prop Prediction
Vettori Win by Decision
Odds
Bonus

Fight Prop Prediction

The Main Event at UFC on ABC 2 will see Marvin Vettori take on Kevin Holland. Holland is a late replacement for Darren Till after he suffered a broken collarbone in training. This will be a fight in the UFC Middleweight division. Vettori comes into this fight as the favorite and is 16-4-1 in MMA. He is 6-2-1 in the UFC and is coming off a unanimous decision win against Jack Hermansson. Vettori has now won four fights in a row with his last loss coming back in 2018. He is a solid striker, averaging 4.78 significant strikes per minute. He also absorbs 3.19 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 66 percent. Vettori would likely be more comfortable on the ground, where he is averaging 1.33 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He lands his takedowns with an accuracy of 45 percent, but defends them 78 percent of the time.

Just last month, Holland was seen losing to Derek Brunson in a fight he looked uninterested in. He tends to talk far too much in the Octagon instead of actually focusing on the fight. Holland is now 21-6 in MMA and 9-3 in the UFC. The loss to Brunson snapped his five-fight win streak and also probably hurt his chances at a title fight. With that fight against Brunson coming just three weeks ago, I am not sure Holland is going to be prepared for the striking of Vettori. Holland is averaging 4.14 significant strikes per minute, landing them 56 percent of the time. He also has great defense, absorbing just 2.58 strikes per minute. His grappling is less prominent, averaging just 1.08 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown defense is 51 percent, which could hurt him here against Vettori.

The lack of focus we saw from Holland in that recent fight is a big concern here, so the fact that he is fighting three weeks later makes me believe this is Vettori’s fight to lose. Four of Vettori’s wins in the UFC have come by decision and with his striking ability, I think we see a dominate performance from the Italian and he extends his win streak.

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