NBA Picks

December has not been kind to the Miami Heat, who are currently on their longest active losing streak of the season, dropping 5 games in a row. Whether or not this poor run of form has anything to do with the return of Tyler Herro to the line-up remains to be seen, but the Heat offense has really struggled over the past 5 games, going over 110 points just once during that stretch. Herro has been in and out of the line-up with various knocks, and with the next 3 games all being on the road, the Heat could get close to the .500 mark if they don’t turn things around.

The Nets go into this game without any real expectations, just like they do on most nights. They’ve actually played decently since the turn of the month, winning 4 of their last 6 games, and they’re coming off their biggest win of the season after dismantling the shorthanded Bucks 127-82 on Sunday. So what has been the driving force of this positive run happening all of a sudden? Defense. Brooklyn ranks 2nd only to the OKC Thunder in defensive efficiency during this stretch, allowing just 104.8 points per game. Michael Porter Jr. has also been on a heater averaging 27.1 points per game over his last 7 outings.

Backing the under has yielded profit in 5 straight Miami Heat games, their pace of play has fallen off a cliff compared to the first month and a half of the season. Brooklyn has excelled defensively lately, with the under cashing 7 times in 8 meetings in Brooklyn between these two teams I feel very comfortable backing it again on Thursday.

Heat vs Nets Predictions: Under 226 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the league’s most dominant teams this season, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaging 32.4 points and 6.4 assists per game, shooting over 53% in recent stretches. In their last meeting with the Clippers, OKC won 126-107, with SGA scoring 30 points and handing out 12 assists, while Isaiah Joe added 22 points, showcasing their explosive scoring ability. Oklahoma City’s recent form has been elite, with high efficiency on both ends, solid assist numbers, and strong rebounding, allowing them to control pace and create easy scoring opportunities.

The LA Clippers will be without James Harden, a major offensive creator, leaving the scoring burden on lesser options. LA averages around 111 points per game while allowing opponents to score roughly 116.8 points, reflecting defensive vulnerabilities. Veterans like Kawhi Leonard can still contribute, but without Harden and with limited depth, the Clippers struggle to keep pace with elite scoring teams. Their tendency to fall behind early and defensive lapses further favor the Thunder in this matchup. Given OKC’s offensive firepower and the Clippers’ limitations, the Thunder should not only win but cover a large number.

Clippers vs Thunder Prediction: Thunder -17.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -18.5

The Milwaukee Bucks enter this matchup still searching for consistency but remain competitive thanks to shooting efficiency and veteran depth. Even with Giannis Antetokounmpo sidelined, Milwaukee averages around 114 points per game and ranks among the league’s best three-point shooting teams, hitting roughly 40% from deep with over 15 made threes per game. Bobby Portis has taken on a larger role offensively, averaging around 18 points and 6 rebounds, while guards like Ryan Rollins have helped stabilize ball movement and pace. At home, Milwaukee’s spacing and shooting tend to keep games tight, even against deeper opponents.

The Toronto Raptors have shown flashes of upside behind Scottie Barnes, but defensive consistency has been an issue. Toronto has struggled at times containing perimeter shooters and defending in transition, areas where Milwaukee can still exploit matchups despite missing its top star. While the Raptors have had success against the Bucks earlier this season, those games required strong shooting nights and near perfect execution. Given Milwaukee’s ability to stretch the floor, control tempo at home, and keep games within a single possession late, this sets up as a competitive matchup. With the spread sitting at five points, Bucks +5 offers value in what profiles as a close Eastern Conference game.

Raptors vs Bucks Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks +5.0 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +4.

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The San Antonio Spurs enter this matchup in strong form, sitting at 18-7 overall and thriving at home with a 9-2 record. They’ve won 10 of their last 13 games, driven by elite ball movement (25.7 assists per game) and dominant interior play from Victor Wembanyama, who is averaging roughly 25.8 points, 12.6 rebounds, and 3.5 blocks per night. San Antonio has already handled Washington comfortably this season, including a 131-121 win where the Spurs shot over 51% from the field and consistently controlled the pace on both ends of the floor.

The Washington Wizards continue to struggle, sitting at 4-20 overall and just 2-11 on the road. Injuries have compounded their issues, with key rotation pieces sidelined or limited, and the team ranks near the bottom of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency. While Washington has shown occasional flashes, those moments have been short lived and haven’t translated into sustained competitiveness, especially against disciplined, high-execution teams. With San Antonio’s depth, defensive presence, and ability to build leads quickly at home, this sets up as a difficult spot for the Wizards to keep things close.

Wizards vs Spurs Prediction: San Antonio Spurs -14.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -15.

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The Los Angeles Lakers enter this matchup averaging 119.1 points per game, powered by a fast tempo and elite shot making. Luka Doncic has been outstanding as the engine of the offense, averaging roughly 34 points, 9 rebounds, and 9 assists, while LeBron James continues to defy age with around 17 points per game on efficient shooting. As a team, the Lakers are shooting over 50% from the field, but their defensive consistency has lagged, particularly in transition and perimeter containment. That combination often leads to wide open games where possessions pile up quickly and scoring runs come in bunches.

Utah profiles as the perfect opponent for a high total environment. The Jazz average close to 119 points per game themselves but are allowing over 126 points per contest, one of the weakest defensive marks in the league. Lauri Markkanen remains their focal point, posting around 28 points and 12 rebounds, while Keyonte George has taken on a larger offensive role and can heat up quickly from deep. Utah’s defensive struggles force them into shootouts, and their willingness to push pace at home only adds to the scoring potential. With both teams leaning offense first and neither consistently slowing opponents down, the ingredients are there for sustained scoring across four quarters.

Lakers vs Jazz Prediction: Over 243.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 244.5

Franz Wagner was dearly missed in the NBA Cup semis against the Knicks, as Orlando fell by 12-points in Vegas. Five days later, the Magic are back in action as they head to the Mile High city to take on the Nuggets. Jalen Suggs is the latest injury causality; he suffered a hip contusion which will keep him out of this game. Not ideal ahead of a 4-game West coast road trip that begins on Thursday. The Magic have not had good luck in games against this team, winning only once in 9 visits to Ball Arena. Dealing with Nikola Jokic is always troublesome for teams, but especially for Orlando — a team that isn’t really built to handle a player like him.

The 3-time MVP Jokic is coming off a monster triple-double performance of 39 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists in the Nuggets’ OT win over Houston on Monday. He’s averaging close to a triple-double over the last 5 meetings with Orlando, and my only concern here are his fatigue levels following those grueling 42 mins he played vs the Rockets. The key difference between these two teams is their ability to shoot the long ball. Only the Bucks have a higher efficiency from deep range than the Nuggets do, while Orlando ranks all the way down in 25th.

Orlando will want to start off this road trip on a high note. They probably won’t have an answer for Jokic, but Desmond Bane and Paolo Banchero will want to redeem themselves after losing that game against the Knicks in the NBA Cup semis. Denver probably comes out on top, but I have the Magic keeping this one close. They’ve covered the spread in 7 of 9 meetings.

Magic vs Nuggets Predictions: Orlando Magic +7 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Sacramento heads to Portland as a sizable underdog, but the matchup suggests the Kings can stay competitive. Despite a poor overall record, Sacramento averages just over 110 points per game and still has enough shot creation to score in bursts, especially against teams that struggle defensively. Their biggest issue has been stopping opponents, allowing over 120 points per game, but that often keeps games closer than spreads imply rather than leading to outright blowouts. When Sacramento can establish an offensive rhythm, they’re capable of trading buckets and hanging around deep into games.

Portland’s situation makes it difficult to justify laying a large number. The Trail Blazers are dealing with significant absences, limiting both their offensive ceiling and their ability to separate late. While young pieces have flashed, Portland has been inconsistent on both ends and has allowed opponents to score freely throughout the season. With a shortened rotation and reduced firepower, creating sustained runs becomes much harder. The Blazers have only covered one game as a favorite this season and I don’t expect them to win a game in this spot by more than a few points.

Kings vs Trail Blazers Prediction: Kings +8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7