NBA Picks

The Toronto Raptors seem to be rediscovering a bit of form having won their last 2 games. They will have a great chance of extending the run at home against the Boston Celtics tonight. The visitors are going to be on the second night of a back-to-back set. And while they have been able to win 4 of their 5 games on no nights rest this season, that sort of form in those games should not be sustainable. They also played against the Miami Heat last night, the team leading the NBA in pace of play. Fatigue should be a major factor in this game as a result.

The Celtics should have real issues containing Brandon Ingram today. He has scored 28 or more points in each of his last 4 games including a 30-point performance against the Celtics. Over the last 10 games the Celtics have been just 23rd in defensive rating and are unlikely to put together a stronger defensive performance given their lack of rest. The Raptors are also leading the league this season in fast break points per game and should prove to be far from a favorable opponent. With Scottie Barnes among their ranks too, expect them to be able to contain either Derrick White or Jaylen Brown in key moments of the game. Back the hosts to take the win.

Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors prediction: Toronto Raptors ML (+100) available at time of publishing.

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The Mavs are coming off a strong performance and an OT win over the East leading Detroit Pistons, a result that caught many people off guard. Next up for them are the Philadelphia 76ers as they embark on a mini 2-game road trip. With 6 wins in 8 games optimism is back in the Mavs’ camp, however caution is advised ahead of Saturday’s game in Philly with Anthony Davis potentially missing this game with an illness. He had a monster double-double in the win over the Pistons, it goes without saying that his absence would be a major handicap for the Mavs here.

Philadelphia will be playing on a 2nd night of a back-to-back, after a heroic win at Madison Square Garden over the Knicks last night. Consistency might have eluded them lately, but the Sixers have been resilient with a 15-11 SU record despite injuries decimating them in these first 2 months of the season. Joel Embiid did not play last night due to illness, there is a chance he might come back here which would be a big boost for the Sixers down low. Philadelphia has done well in this match-up winning 4 of 5 meetings, they are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

I’m having a hard time trusting the Mavs here, despite their 6-2 SU record over the past 8 games. AD might not play, Klay is dealing with a knee issue, so it’ll mostly be rookie Cooper Flagg that the Sixers will have to deal with. Maxey and co. have been on a tear winning 5 of 7 games, this is a perfect opportunity for them to improve on their home record. I’ll take Philly to cover.

Dallas Mavericks vs Philadelphia 76ers Predictions: 76ers -1.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable up to -3.5

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For a moment there it looked like perhaps the Indiana Pacers have turned things around with 4 wins in 6 games, however with 3 losses in a row they are right back to the drawing board. Saturday sees them take on the New Orleans Pelicans, a team that’s in a similar boat as they are record wise, however unlike Indy they’ve won 3 games in a row. Only once in 12 outings on the road did the Pacers come out victorious this season, their last 3 games have seen them score just 105, 89 and 113 points against the 76ers, Wizards and Knicks. For the 23rd time this season they’ll enter a game as underdogs, against the Pels on the road they are just 1-5 SU in 6 visits.

New Orleans has taken down Portland, Chicago and Houston in their last 3 games, signaling that there might be better days ahead. They are in a far better position health wise than their opponent here, with only Dejounte Murray being out with his long term injury. Zion Williamson is active and putting up decent numbers, I’m expecting a lot from him in this game against a Pacers team that ranks only 18th in opponent points in the paint this season. Bettors have made the most out of this good spell by the Pelicans who have covered 8 times in 9 games, their offense is a major reason why the over has cashed in 12 of their 16 home games, including the last 5 straight.

I had a debate whether to back the Pelicans to cover or to simply go with the over. In the end I feel like New Orleans is the better bet here. They’re firing on all cylinders offensively, facing a Pacers team that has had very little success in road games. I’ll go with the home team.

Indiana Pacers vs New Orleans Pelicans Predictions: Pelicans -3.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This is purely about reading the market and understanding how perception shapes price. Detroit has been outstanding at home, sitting 11–2 in their own building and holding the best record in the Eastern Conference. They look the part of a legitimate contender, and backing the Pistons here feels safe, logical, and comfortable. That’s exactly why the number is where it is. Charlotte, meanwhile, brings almost no appeal to the table. The Hornets are 9–18 overall, have won just three games on the road, and are widely viewed as a lottery-bound team. When you stack those optics next to Detroit’s dominance, the natural reaction is to lay the points and move on. Oddsmakers know this — and they’ve priced the game accordingly.

Detroit doesn’t need to press here; they just need to handle business. Charlotte, on the other hand, enters with nothing to lose and everything to gain, which is often when underdogs play their most relaxed and competitive basketball. This is a wager which accounts for the market stretching the line to cater towards Detroit’s popularity. When one side becomes the obvious choice, value almost always lives on the other. We’ll take the inflated points and let the math work in our favor.

Hornets vs Pistons prediction: Hornets +10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +10

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The Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors will play the second game of a home-and-home series when they wage the rematch on Saturday night in Golden State. Phoenix won a 99-98 thriller 2 days ago at home. Will a change of scenery really result in a 7-point swing? The Warriors (13-15) have not even been that great at home this season, sporting a 7-4 such record. Stephen Curry and company might win, but asking them to do so by at least 6 points seems unreasonable. My Suns vs Warriors pick is for the visitors to cover.

Phoenix won the previous matchup even though Grayson Allen (16.3 ppg) did not play because of a knee injury. It sounds like the former Duke standout has a good chance to return on Saturday. Even if he doesn’t, the Suns have plenty of guys who can make them competitive in this contest. Seven players are scoring in double-figures, including Devin Booker over 25 points and Dillon Brooks over 21. The sum of the parts on this roster is a lot greater, too, than it was when this franchise had more individual star power in Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal. Meanwhile, Golden State has lost 3 games in a row and 9 of its last 14.

Suns vs Warriors prediction: Phoenix +6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This total feels inflated given the way this matchup is likely to be played. Orlando is being priced as a significant favorite, and when the Magic find themselves in control of games, they default to what they do best: slow the pace and defend. Defense is not just a feature of Orlando’s identity — it is the identity. They are far more comfortable winning games by defensive acumen than engaging in shootouts, and when they dictate terms, possessions shorten and scoring dries up. Utah’s path to competitiveness also points in the same direction. The Jazz are not equipped to run with Orlando in a track meet, nor would that be a smart approach. Their best chance to hang around is to grind, limit mistakes, and force the Magic to execute in the half court. Orlando’s offense, while capable of spikes, remains inconsistent and heavily matchup-dependent. When they aren’t generating transition looks, scoring often becomes a chore.

A total pushing 240 implies extended efficiency from both sides, but the game script doesn’t support that expectation. If Orlando builds a lead, they’ll protect it defensively. If Utah stays close, it will be because the game turns physical and deliberate. The Jazz want to keep Orlando in striking distance and not let the game get away from them. Either way, the conditions favor fewer possessions and longer scoring droughts. This isn’t about fireworks — it’s about who can throw their weight around more, and controlled possessions points directly to the Under.

Magic vs Jazz prediction: Under 239.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

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This matchup sets up perfectly for points, and the number, while high, still doesn’t fully account for how these two teams prefer to play. Neither Portland nor Sacramento has shown any real commitment to defense this season. What they have shown is a willingness to push tempo, take early shots, and trade buckets rather than grind possessions down. That combination is exactly what you want when targeting an Over here.

Both teams are surrendering roughly 122 points per game, which tells you defense is optional on most nights. More importantly, neither side has the personnel nor the scheme to suddenly flip the script and slow things down. Portland leaks points in transition and struggles to protect the rim, while Sacramento routinely gives up open looks on the perimeter and gets caught in rotation. That creates a steady diet of high-quality shots on both ends. The beauty of this Over is margin independence. We don’t need a tight game, a late foul fest, or overtime. We just need scoring. If each team simply plays to its season averages, we’re right in range. And if one side catches fire — which is very much on the table in a matchup like this — 130+ from one team alone isn’t out of the question which puts in even better position because even a marginally better showing from either defense still gets us home. This profiles as a fast, loose, shot-heavy game where defense takes a back seat. That’s the environment Overs are built on. 238.5? We can easily see 250 points combined here, no problem. Move in hard on the Over.

Trail Blazers vs Kings prediction: Over 238.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

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Is there anything Luka Doncic cannot do? We saw yet another historic performance by the talented point guard as he went for 45 points, 11 rebounds and 14 assists, with his Lakers taking down the Utah Jazz on the road. The Jazz led 75% of that game and were up double-digits at one point, but the Lakers showed great resilience and fought back to get the win. This team is 10-0 SU in clutch games this season, something to keep an eye on as the season continues. Luka and co. will look to win their 4th game in 5 outings as they take on cross town rivals the Clippers, a team they’ve already beaten 135-118 in their building earlier this season.

The disaster season continued for the Clippers with yet another loss, their 5th in a row as they fell at OKC 122-101 on Thursday. James Harden decided to skip that game, he is the lone bright spot for this team this year and without him they just looked lost out there barely going over the century mark. With a somewhat rested Harden things should improve on Saturday, but the odds are still stacked against the Clippers who are only 3-8 SU in home games this season and have very little to brag about this season. They’ve failed to cover in 10 straight at the Intuit Dome and have lost 8 in a row vs Western Conference opponents.

This was a very fun match-up the first time these two teams met in late November, we saw a total of 253 points in that game. Defense has not been a priority for either team this season – the Lakers rank 21st in defensive efficiency, while the Clippers are 26th. We saw the over cash 8 times in 10 Lakers games, there’s just too much firepower on both rosters here. I’ll be backing the points.

LA Lakers vs LA Clippers Predictions: Over 229.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This matchup looks simpler than it is. Denver has won and covered four straight against Houston, which naturally pulls sentiment and money their way. But rewind just five days and the story changes — these two teams needed overtime in Denver to decide a winner. This was an accurate reflection of how evenly matched they are and why the price is where it is. The market priced that game as a coin flip for a reason, and nothing since then suggests the gap has suddenly widened. What has changed is perception. Denver’s recent success has elevated their price, while Houston remains undervalued despite proving they can compete.

When streaks pile up, lines get shaded. That’s where value opens. Houston doesn’t need to reinvent anything — they simply need to replicate what already worked and for the coin to land on their side this time around. They’ve already shown they can trade blows with Denver without backing down. This time however, the Rockets make the most of the situation. Houston grabs this one straight up.

Rockets vs Nuggets prediction: Rockets (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

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