College Basketball Picks

After a highly entertaining opening day of March Madness action that featured plenty of compelling college hoops, Friday’s slate was largely a letdown. However, we should get plenty of compelling matchups in the Round of 32 this weekend, including a battle between the Texas A&M Aggies and Houston Cougars. Based off what we just saw on Thursday, I can understand the case for backing Texas A&M at this number. After all, the Houston offense can be prone to extended scoring droughts and the Aggies are fresh off a dominant victory over a Saint Mary’s team that plays a somewhat similar defense-focused style to what the Cougars focus on. However, that performance was more about Saint Mary’s and the Gaels’ complete lack of athleticism than what the Aggies were bringing to the table, specifically on the defensive side of the ball.

Compared to most of its opponents this season, Houston is a much tougher matchup for this Texas A&M. The Aggies thrive on outworking the opponent and creating chaos, but they won’t be able to accomplish that against a Cougars team that is elite at taking care of the basketball (5th in turnover rate) and generating offense late in the shot clock. More importantly, Kelvin Sampson’s team consistently dominates the glass and should hold a massive edge on the offensive boards against an Aggies defense that is 280th in defensive rebounding percentage (BartTorvik). Ultimately, Texas A&M is well outside the top 200 in 2-point percentage defense, and we can expect Kingston Flemings and the Houston offense to have enough to win this game by double digits.

Texas A&M vs Houston prediction: Houston -9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -10.5.

The Round of 32 matchup between the Texas Longhorns and Gonzaga Bulldogs sets up as one of the more intriguing games of the weekend, featuring two teams coming off impressive opening round wins. Texas advanced with a 79-71 victory over the BYU Cougars, showcasing a balanced offensive attack and strong guard play. The Longhorns enter averaging 75.2 points per game while shooting 45.8% from the field, and they’ve been particularly effective when controlling tempo and limiting turnovers. Defensively, Texas allows 70.4 points per game, and their ability to contest shots on the perimeter has been key, holding opponents under 34% from three point range. Guard play remains the backbone of this team, with multiple contributors capable of initiating offense and creating late clock scoring opportunities.

Gonzaga enters this matchup in strong form after a 73-64 win over Kennesaw State Owls, continuing their trend as one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country. The Bulldogs average 83.6 points per game while shooting an impressive 50.6% from the field, ranking among the top teams nationally in offensive efficiency. They also dominate the glass, pulling down 40.7 rebounds per game, which creates consistent second chance opportunities. Gonzaga’s offensive structure is built on ball movement and interior scoring, complemented by efficient perimeter shooting at 37.8% from three. Defensively, they allow 69.1 points per game, and their size inside often forces opponents into difficult half court possessions. While Texas has the defensive discipline and guard play to keep this competitive early, Gonzaga’s offensive consistency, rebounding edge, and ability to generate high percentage looks should allow them to gradually create separation. If the Bulldogs control tempo and win the battle on the boards, they are well positioned to advance to the Sweet 16.

Texas vs Gonzaga prediction: Gonzaga -6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -7.5.

The VCU Rams and the Illinois Fighting will meet on Saturday in the round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament. VCU is coming off an improbable comeback against North Carolina last game to move onto the next round. They are one of two 11 seeds to upset a six seed in the first round and have a chance to win again here. Illinois is coming off a blowout win against Penn in the first round and will look to make their second Sweet 16 in three years. The Rams are an 11.5-point underdog, but I am backing the over in this game.

I like the over in this game because VCU will look to push the pace as much as possible and Illinois has one of the best offenses in the country. According to KenPom, VCU is ranked 59th nationally in average offensive possession length and #117 in adjusted tempo. To compete with Illinois, I expect VCU to try to speed up the game and make the Illini uncomfortable. Illinois plays slow but have the second ranked offensive efficiency at KenPom, which should help drive the total over. Illinois offense is ranked 36th in effective field goal percentage, 6th in offensive rebounding percentage and 20th in 2-point percentage. Take the over here.

VCU vs Illinois prediction: Over 151.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 152.

The #3 Nebraska Cornhuskers face the #6 Vanderbilt Commodores on Saturday night. Vanderbilt has been red hot down the stretch, although it was not easy bouncing McNeese St on Thursday. The Huskers got off the trivia list as the last remaining major conference team to never win a tournament game; they smoked Troy by nearly 30 to do it. The contrast in styles will be interesting in this one, as Vanderbilt has elite guards and a top-notch offense, while Nebraska is an elite defense that also makes a lot of 3s. Vanderbilt opened as the favorite, despite being the lower seed, but I like Nebraska to win this game outright. I’ll take Nebraska on the money line.

The difference in this game ought to be the Cornhusker defense. They rank in the top 10 in the nation in 3-pt percentage allowed, and Vandy lives on that arc. If Nebraska suppresses those outside shooters, the ‘Dores will have trouble. Nebraska is also the better team on the boards, and they can more than hold their own offensively. The Vanderbilt defense is the weakest link in this game, and while this is likely to be a high-scoring shootout, Nebraska seems to just enough of an edge for me to back them.

Vanderbilt vs Nebraska prediction: Nebraska ML (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The scoreboard operator better limber up their fingers, because they’re going to be busy. Arkansas averaged 90.1 points per game this season, good for third in the nation. Right on its heels, High Point averaged 89.8 points per game, ranking 4th in the country. This game figures to be a track meet. High Point had the late-game heroics to surprise Wisconsin 83-82 as a 10.5-point underdog in Round 1, pulling off a 12-5 upset as the Over cashed. The Over also cashed against Winthrop in the Big South Tournament Championship Game, while going 4-2 in the past 6 outings, 7-3 in the past 10 games, and 12-5 across the previous 17 contests.

For Arkansas, it cruised by Hawaii 97-78 in the first round, cashing as a 13.5-point favorite, avoiding the 13-4 upset with ease. The Over cashed, too, which was a frequent happening with Coach John Calipari’s squad. The Over is just 2-2 in 4 postseason games, including the SEC Tournament, but the total has gone high in eight of the past 10 games since Feb. 18. In addition, Arkansas has scored at least 82 points in 6 consecutive outings, while hitting that mark in 12 of the past 13 contests. Arkansas has also allowed at least 75 points in 11 in a row. Look for a track meet in Portland to wrap up the Saturday second-round action.

High Point vs Arkansas prediction: Over 168.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 169.5.

The #2 seed Purdue Boilermakers take on the #7 seed Miami Hurricanes in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. Purdue was dominant in their win over #15 seed Queens, shooting 63.1% from the floor while controlling the glass 41-19. As for the Hurricanes, they handled business against Missouri, shooting 43.3% and outrebounded the Tigers 46-30. Purdue enters this matchup playing some of their best basketball of the season, coming off a Big Ten Tournament title and an impressive first-round performance. However, they can’t afford to overlook this Hurricanes team that can beat them inside. 

Malik Reneau, Ernest Udeh Jr., and Tre Donaldson have been fantastic for the Hurricanes this season, and they bring plenty of talent that could give Purdue a tough time. According to KenPom, the Hurricanes rank 31st in adjusted offensive efficiency (121.3) and 36 in adjusted defense (100.3). Purdue leads the nation in adjusted offense (131.9) and sits 38th in defense (100.4). The Boilermakers are weak when it comes to defending inside the arc (53.3%) and that’s good news for the Hurricanes as they shot 57.2% from 2-point range this season. However, Purdue is an elite 3-point shooting team and Miami is allowing opponents to shoot 35.4% from beyond the arc. This should be a great matchup, but Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn will be too much for the Hurricanes to handle as Purdue pulls away late. 

Miami vs Purdue prediction: Purdue -7.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Kentucky came into March with the appearance of a team that is more brand name than substance, and depending on how one interpret events of Friday that may be the market’s position here again. That makes them a far less marketable option compared to Iowa State who looks every bit the contender to cut down the nets many regard them as. Thats where we start.

On Friday, ISU cruised past Tennessee State. Big Blue needed theatrics against Santa Clara. In what was one of the wildest finishes in tournament history, Kentucky escaped with an overtime win and covered as a 3.5-point choice despite being placed on upset alert by many before tip-off. The Cats were just seconds away from suffering an early exit until a miracle half-court shot gave them second life. Immediately, many will say that theatrics might work against a WCC team like the Broncos, but not against a stud like the Cyclones. The price however suggests that UK has an honest chance to cause more chaos. And they do have a chance here. Kentucky was big on defense when it needed to be and made the plays it had to when required to get the job done. Thats the DNA of a team that can make a deep run and excel on the big stage contrary to popular opinion. The line suggests that the Cats make more noise. I am taking them to advance. Kentucky outright.

Kentucky vs Iowa State prediction: Kentucky +175 (ML) available at time of writing. Playable to the number.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders and Alabama Crimson Tide meet in the Round of 32 in a matchup that contrasts elite pace with offensive efficiency. Alabama enters as the highest scoring team in the country at 91.7 points per game, thriving in transition and relying heavily on tempo to create scoring opportunities. In their opening round win, the Crimson Tide put up 90 points, with Labaron Philon Jr. leading the way with 29 points while the team controlled the glass with 46 rebounds. Alabama’s ability to push pace and generate second chance opportunities makes them difficult to contain, but defensive inconsistency remains a concern, as they allow around 70.1 points per game and have struggled at times to get stops against efficient offenses.

Texas Tech counters with a more controlled and efficient offensive approach, averaging 80.7 points per game while ranking among the nation’s best three point shooting teams at 39.3%, knocking down 11.5 threes per game. In their first round win, the Red Raiders shot 64.2% from the field, with Jaylen Petty scoring 24 points and multiple players contributing offensively. Point guard Christian Anderson drives the offense with 7.7 assists per game, helping create high-quality looks in the half court. While Texas Tech allows 72.6 points per game, their ability to control tempo and execute efficiently could be key against Alabama’s fast paced style. If the Red Raiders limit transition opportunities and capitalize from beyond the arc, they can dictate the flow of the game and neutralize Alabama’s biggest strength. With Alabama’s defensive inconsistency and Texas Tech’s balanced offensive attack, this sets up as a competitive matchup where execution and tempo control could ultimately favor the Red Raiders.

Texas Tech vs Alabama Prediction: Texas Tech -1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2

The Saint Louis Billikens meet the Michigan Wolverines in a Midwest Region second-round game at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, N.Y. on Saturday to kick off the day. Saint Louis cruised past Georgia 102-77 in the opening round, cashing as a 1.5-point favorite as the Over cashed. Prior to that cover, SLU was just 1-5 against the spread (ATS) in the previous 6, however. The Billikens have cashed the Over in 2 of the past 3 games in the postseason, including the Atlantic 10 Conference tournament. However, the Under has a 3-2 edge in five neutral-site games this season, while going 3-1 in 4 games against teams in the NCAA Tournament, with the lone exception for rout of UGA.

Michigan pounded 16-seed Howard 101-80, but failed to cover as a 30.5-point favorite as the Over (151.5) easily cashed. However, the Under was 2-1 in the Big Ten tournament for Dusty May’s bunch, while the Under is 5-3 in the past 8 neutral-site games for the Wolverines. Michigan has also failed to cover the past 6 games, while going 1-8 ATS in the previous 9 outings. If you’re looking for a same-game parlay opportunity, going Under on the total, coupled with Saint Louis is the way to go. If you’re looking for just a singular play, the Billikens catching double digits is the play. Michigan is 0-6 ATS in the past six tries as a favorite of 9.5 or more points.

Saint Louis vs Michigan prediction: Saint Louis +12.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +11.5.

#9 seed TCU Horned Frogs will take on the #1 seed Duke Blue Devils on Saturday, with both teams looking to deliver a stronger performance than they showed in the first round. TCU narrowly escaped Ohio State, needing a game-winning layup from Xavier Edmonds with just four seconds remaining. Duke also had a sluggish start, only pulling away from #16 seed Siena in the final minutes. Both teams enter this matchup with a defensive identity. According to KenPom, TCU ranks 22nd in adjusted defensive efficiency (97.5 points allowed per 100 possessions) and Duke leads the nation with 89.8. 

For Duke, the key will be establishing control inside. TCU struggled in the paint against Ohio State, getting outscored 34-24, and that’s an area where Duke typically thrives. Even in their win over Siena, the Blue Devils held a 36-30 edge in the paint. However, they haven’t been as dominant inside as usual in recent games, especially with Patrick Ngongba II and Caleb Foster out of the lineup. TCU has the offensive firepower to keep pace with the Blue Devils, with four players averaging double figures. That balance should help them match up against Duke’s top options like the Boozer brothers and Isaiah Evans. The Horned Frogs have also proven they can compete with high-level teams, picking up wins over Cincinnati, Texas Tech, and Iowa State during the regular season while keeping other top-25 matchups close. While TCU may not have enough to pull off the upset, their physicality and defensive toughness should keep this game close. If Duke controls the glass and consistently scores in the paint, they’ll create separation – but I expect TCU to battle inside and keep this one within single digits. 

TCU vs Duke prediction: TCU +11.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.