College Football Week 0 Opening Lines, Odds & Best Bets: No Trust in Norvell's Seminoles

After a long wait, the college football offseason is effectively in the rearview mirror with the arrival of Week 0. You know what that means! We can move on from the college football futures markets – which myself and fellow senior college football writer Caleb Wilfinger covered in great detail, from a CFP National Championship best bet at +800 to a +1200 dark-horse MAC Championship best bet – and discuss real games. While we won’t have a full menu, we will have eight matchups on tap this Saturday, August 29, to wet our whistles ahead of a massive Week 1 card over Labor Day Weekend.

With the unofficial return of college football quickly approaching, it’s time to bring back my early-week best bet series. I’ve gone 20-10 in this series over the last two years for a clean win rate of 66.7%, and I’m looking to keep that momentum going this year. Keep in mind, Week 0 and Week 1 lines have been out for a while, so we aren’t going to find much value in these numbers as we would on a Monday morning in October, for example. However, there's still plenty to discuss and at least one best bet to make. Let’s get into it. 

2026 College Football Week 0 Opening Lines & Odds 

Odds courtesy of bet365 at the time of publishing. 

Saturday, August 29th

• North Carolina vs. TCU -7.5 (-115); Total: 47.5 (-110) *Dublin, Ireland
• San Jose State @ USC -38.5 (-110); Total: 60.5 (-110)
• NC State @ Virginia -5.5 (-115); Total: 53.5 (-110)
• Jacksonville State @ North Dakota State -6.5 (-120); Total 46.5 (-110)
• Sacramento State @ Eastern Michigan -9.5 (-115); Total 52.5 (-110)
• Hawaii @ Stanford -5.5 (-110); Total 49.5 (Under -115)
• New Mexico State @ Florida State -31.5 (-110); Total 53.5 (-110)
• Memphis @ UNLV -5.5 (-110); Total 56.5 (Over -115)

CFB Week 0 Notable Line Moves: 

• TCU moved across the key number of -7, from -6.5 to -8 in some places.
• USC has grown to a -38.5 or -39 favorite against San Jose State, up from -35.5. 
• Jacksonville State is the only underdog getting love in Week 0. The Gamecocks are down to +6.5 in some places after getting as many as 10 points at open.
• Eastern Michigan ballooned from -8 to -9.5 and even -10 at some books against new conference foe Sacramento State.
• Florida State opened -29 and now sits at -31.5.
• UNLV and Virginia have both moved across the key number of -3 to -5.5, and both are juiced in some places, signaling -6 could be on the horizon.
• Most totals have either stayed right around the opening number or dropped one or two points.

College Football Week 0 Best Bet: New Mexico State Aggies +31.5 over Florida State Seminoles (-110)

There’s no denying Florida State is the more talented team; the Seminoles should win this game comfortably. However, given the happenings in Tallahassee over the last few years, how are we to trust Mike Norvell, Ashton Daniels and company to win any game by at least 32 points? 

FSU projects to start an offensive line that has zero experience together. Not a single starter from last season returns, and the only player that was even in garnet and gold last season was André Otto, who played only 79 snaps per PFF. Two of the other four projected starters transferred up from non-power programs, and the remaining two were well below average last year on sub-par offenses. That said, I like their pick up of running back Quintrevion Wisner – a previous 1,000-yard rusher at Texas – in tandem with returning senior wide receiver Duce Robinson, who put up over 1,000 yards and grabbed six touchdowns in 2025, and a talented young pass-catching core. 

What I don’t like is Daniels running the offense, especially behind a questionable offensive line. He is a massive downgrade from what they had in Tommy Castellanos last year and is not someone that can be trusted under center. In his last three years, which consisted of two years at Stanford and four games at Auburn last year, Daniels threw 22 interceptions to go with his 24 touchdowns, and he had 11 more turnover-worthy plays (41) than big-time throws (30) in that span. Furthermore, he took 55 sacks in those three years and fumbled the ball 14 times. He even fumbled three times in 30 snaps as a freshman. Daniels simply doesn’t take care of the ball, and New Mexico State has a secondary littered with upperclassmen, a couple of whom come from the power-conference ranks. In fact, the Aggies’ entire defense is loaded with seniors. 

On the other side of the ball, the Aggies are going through ample change like the Seminoles, as they return less than half of their production from 2025. However, as crazy as it may sound, I still think there’s enough here to remain within 31 points of the ‘Noles. With every projected starter listed at least six-foot-three and 300 pounds, this new-look offensive line has the size to compete with FSU in the trenches, which is music to the ears of Furman-transfer quarterback Trey Hedden – who threw for nearly 3,000 yards last season. Hedden’s pass-catching group has a ton of speed to either get in behind the FSU secondary or beat defenders after the catch, and it also has a big-bodied target in true sophomore Brodie Malone-Bradford, who stands at six-foot-five and caught two touchdowns as a freshman. 

Once again, I don’t expect an upset here, but with a standalone conference game against SMU on national TV on Labor Day, followed by a road trip to Tuscaloosa to play Alabama, how motivated are the Seminoles to win by at least 32 in this spot? Even if they were motivated, can you trust Daniels to play a clean enough game to allow it to happen? I certainly don’t.