College Football Week 2 Best Bets: Friday, September 11
We’re off and running on the 2026 college football regular season, as the Week 2 action is quickly approaching. Before we get to Saturday’s massive card featuring Oklahoma vs Michigan and Ohio State vs Texas, we have a small appetizer of games on Friday night, headlined by two FBS matchups in Rutgers vs Boston College and Missouri vs Kansas. In addition, a trio of ACC teams will host FCS foes with spreads all north of 30 points, and we have you covered on all the action, even Friday’s FBS vs FCS matchups, with our college football picks and predictions.
With Week 2 on the horizon, let’s get into my CFB best bet for Friday night lights after a perfect 2-0 result in Week 1.
CFB Best Bet: Kansas Jayhawks +6 over Missouri Tigers (-110)
Odds courtesy of ProphetX at the time of publishing. Playable to +3.
A rivalry dubbed “Border War,” these regional and former Big 12 foes do not like each other. They met last year for the first time in nearly 15 years, and it was the Tigers that prevailed 42-31 at home. This time around, I like Kansas to be a bit more competitive than that.
There are a healthy amount of new pieces on both teams ahead of this renewed rivalry matchup. Kansas and Missouri are both working in new quarterbacks and new offensive coordinators, though Andy Kotelnicki is a boomerang hire rather than a new hire having already been coordinator under Lance Leipold in Lawrence from 2021-2023. Kotelnicki’s offenses were highly efficient and explosive, and he’s looking to create that magic once again with redshirt sophomore quarterback Isaiah Marshall playing behind a massive offensive line. There’s not much tape on Marshall, but he certainly looked similar to Jalon Daniels as the leader of Kansas’ offense last week, throwing for 246 yards and two touchdowns while running for 49 more yards. Missouri’s Austin Simmons looked great too for what it’s worth, but neither Missouri nor Kansas were tested last week, so it’s hard to take anything meaningful from those games.
Getting this game at home so early in the season is massive for Kansas, and I can’t help but think this line is showing a bit too much respect to Missouri given the Tigers’ recent history under Eli Drinkwitz. The fact of the matter is that this version of Missouri returns just 40% of its top-20 defense from a season ago, which ranks 107th. Are we so sure this unit will pick up right where it left off last year in a hostile road environment? Linebackers Josiah Trotter and Zion Young were the leaders of that unit and they are both in the NFL now. Meanwhile, Kansas stocked up at running back and will deploy a thunder-and-lightning type approach with Syracuse transfer Yasin Willis and Kansas State transfer Dylan Edwards in the backfield with Marshall, who also has a solid stable of productive wide receivers on which to rely. In fact, each of Kansas’ three starting wide receivers pulled in at least 40 passes and gained at least 450 yards last year while combining for 11 touchdowns. Newcomer Nik McMillan (Buffalo) is expected to be heavily targeted at the X position after 62 receptions and 981 yards in the MAC last year.
While Jamal Roberts is capable of bearing the workload, Missouri won’t be at full form offensively as star running back Ahmad Hardy continues to work his way back to full health. The running back room is very thin now considering Malae Fonoti picked up a season-ending injury in Week 1, which is less than ideal with Simmons under center. Missouri starting left tackle Cayden Green has also been battling injury, but is seemingly expected to play in this game.
It’s difficult to trust Simmons given the circumstances, as his limited starting experience against FBS competition yielded four interceptions on four turnover-worthy plays in two starts at Ole Miss last year. He hasn’t been particularly good under pressure in his short career either, and he could see a good bit of it Friday night with Kansas’s leaders in sacks and tackles back in the fold. I power rate this game much, much closer to a pick ‘em, so I’m going to trust those numbers with the added context I discussed and take the points with the Jayhawks. A sprinkle on the money line will probably be in order, too.
Check out our full Missouri vs Kansas prediction for this Friday night CFB game on FOX
