College Football Week 6 Best Bets: Friday, November 6
Week 10 of the college football season is highly-anticipated and, quite frankly, loaded with must-see matchups; that is, if you’re aren't attending one of them in person. But before we get to Saturday’s historically good card, we have a five-pack of Friday matchups that will act as appetizers for Saturday’s main course, including Virginia Tech vs SMU and Arizona vs TCU as headliners.
Ahead of Friday’s abbreviated slate, I’m here to provide you with my best bet of the bunch. After Baylor’s rocking-chair winner over UCF last week, I’ve hit five Friday best bets in a row. Let’s keep that streak going this week, shall we?
CFB Week 10 Friday Best Bet: TCU Horned Frogs vs Arizona Wildcats Under 46.5 (-115)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to 45.
TCU has been an unders team all year, with the total staying low in all seven of their FBS matchups. In fact, just one of those games (West Virginia) finished in the 40s – each of the other six finished in the 20s and 30s. It makes sense, the Horned Frogs are tenacious defensively and can’t score consistently on the other end. TCU also doesn’t play with much pace, nor does Arizona.
By the numbers, TCU’s defense is top-35 in pass efficiency over the last six weeks (excluding garbage time), as well as top-10 in pass success rate and passing downs PPA in that span. Those are good ingredients for a recipe to limit Arizona’s efficient passing offense, spearheaded by Noah Fifita. You could argue the Horned Frogs haven’t seen a passing attack as good as Arizona’s at any point this season, and I would agree with you, but given this stop-unit’s success so far, the Horned Frogs should at least put up some resistance against the Wildcats.
In addition to a strong offense, Arizona has a strong defense that is top-15 in PPA per play and success rate allowed outside of garbage time since the end of September. Like TCU, the ‘Cats have been excellent at defending opposing scoring opportunities, as both defenses hold opponents to 3.15 points or fewer when they cross inside the 40-yard line. Getting into the red zone against these defenses is tough. When opponents actually reach the 20, they end up finding the end zone only half the time, at best.
This is a bit of a sandwich spot for Arizona, having just lost to Texas Tech last week with Utah on deck next week. The total ticked up after opening, which isn’t all that surprising given the success of this offense, but I disagree with the move. Arizona’s home games have stayed under in three of four, and they surrendered just 10 total points in their two conference home games. TCU has scored more than 20 points against a power conference opponent just once, and they haven't surpassed 17 in any game away from home.
Don't forget our CFB predictions for tips and analysis on the rest of the FBS slate this week and beyond.
