College Football Week 9 Best Bets: Saturday, October 31

With all the upsets over the last few weeks, spooky season is alive and well in college football ahead of Halloween weekend. Week 9 is just about here, which means it’s time to get into my college football best bets for Saturday’s slate. After a 2-1 result last week, I’m looking for the elusive 3-0 result this time around, and I like our chances with this three-pack of picks. Let’s get into the breakdown, and don’t forget the rest of our CFB picks for tips and analysis on every FBS game this week and beyond. 

CFB Week 9 Best Bet: Temple Owls +6 over East Carolina Pirates (-120)

Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to +4 (-115).

Both Temple and ECU come into this game off consecutive losses and an overall record under .500. However, I’m a bit more bullish on the Owls situationally ahead of this game than I am the Pirates. The Owls are off a bye, but not just any bye. Head coach KC Keeler announced staff changes during the week off, including the demotion of DC Brian Smith, the firing of Temple’s defensive line coach and the promotion of Henry Baker – now the interim coordinator and play-caller. Keeler also dismissed Syracuse transfer DL Quante Gillians. Who knows if these changes will pan out long term, but one thing is for certain, Keeler is not messing around, and that’s an infectious attitude to have in a locker room.

The Owls were favored in both recent games they lost heading into the bye week, including at home as -17.5 chalk against lowly Charlotte, when they allowed 449 yards and 38 points to one of the worst offenses in the country. Yeah, I’d say the defensive staff changes were warranted, especially after UConn went for 34 points and more than 500 yards the week prior. 

Do I expect all of Temple's defensive issues to be resolved within one bye week? No, but the amount of energy and preparation that’s seemingly going into this game plan is worth noting. Keeler said so himself when he spoke to the media earlier this week, referencing how ECU “took the Owls apart last year.” So, you have a Temple team that’s actually been solid on the road, in a charged-up spot off a bye, going against an ECU team that’s coming off consecutive road overtime losses, including last week’s blown double-digit lead at Memphis on national TV. Spot aside, ECU has covered just one out of four games in the favorite role – probably because the offense is unreliable. For reference, the Pirates rank 94th in scoring, 102nd in total offense, 117th in red-zone scoring rate, 124th in yards per play and 132nd on third downs over the course of the entire year, while they’re 110th or worse in most of the key advanced metrics I track, like PPA per play, success rate and points per scoring opportunity outside of garbage time, over the last six weeks. Temple is live here, and a sprinkle on the money line is warranted, but officially, I’ll take the points with the visiting Owls.  

CFB Week 9 Best Bet: Georgia Bulldogs team total over 34.5 vs Florida Gators (-110)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to 35.5 (+110). 

Florida’s offense has been inconsistent lately. Star RB Jaden Baugh has been banged up, as has starting QB Aaron Philo and apparently even backup QB Tramell Jones Jr. We don’t know who will be under center for the Gators Saturday, so I’ve chosen to isolate the Georgia offense and take the over on the Bulldogs team total. 

Florida’s defense has been suspect at best, currently surrendering the second-most points in conference play (34.8). Three of their recent opponents – Auburn, Missouri and South Carolina – dropped at least 38 on them, and I’m not sure why a week off would fix any of that. Since Week 3, the Gators defense ranks outside the top 100 in PPA per play, success rate and points per scoring opportunity allowed outside of garbage time (CollegeFootballData), while they’re outside the top 115 in standard downs rate and 130th in passing downs PPA in that span as well. In other words, Florida is bad defensively down-to-down and gives their opponents way too many third-and-manageables, and they aren’t getting off the field or holding opponents out of the end zone because of it. These are characteristics Georgia can exploit.

The ‘Dawgs are typically very good off a bye, and that’s before you add the bad loss they endured going into their week off. We know Kirby Smart will have his boys ready, and the fact that this rivalry game, normally played in Jacksonville, will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta is another feather in Georgia’s cap. The Bulldogs are already one of the most efficient offenses in the country; they’re elite in yards per play, third-down conversion, finishing drives and taking care of the ball, which is a confluence of factors that should lead to points against what’s been a bad SEC defense. 

Get our full Florida vs Georgia prediction, which includes a five-star best bet

CFB Week 9 Best Bet: Florida State Seminoles -5.5 over Clemson Tigers (-115)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -6.5 (-105).

If Clemson’s football program isn’t at rock bottom, then it’s approaching that level at an alarming rate after the Tigers lost their sixth home game since the start of last year against Virginia Tech in Week 8. On the surface, it doesn’t necessarily sound that bad, but when you consider Clemson only had seven home losses from 2010 to 2023, including 40 straight wins at one point, then it really adjusts your perspective. 

At 2-5 ATS, it’s fair to doubt Clemson’s upside, and their offensive inefficiencies don’t make it any better for the Tigers. They’re 111th in scoring, 115th in total offense, 123rd in third-down conversion rate, 128th in yards per play and 134th in red-zone touchdown rate on the season as a whole. In terms of efficiency and advanced metrics, the Tigers are outside the top 90 in multiple areas over the last six weeks. It’s no wonder they’ve punted at one of the 12 highest rates and didn’t come close to covering in either of their previous games in the underdog role – at LSU and against Miami. In fact, they lost those games by a combined score of 92-23, and they only put up 16 points at home on the Hokies last week.

LSU and Miami are in a different class than FSU, but are the Noles really as bad as their 3-4 record suggests? Their losses were against SMU, Alabama, Louisville and Miami, and they looked a whole lot better against the Hurricanes than the Tigers did, that’s for certain. The Seminoles have actually been pretty efficient and explosive offensively of late, and the ground game has been strong, which is an area Clemson has struggled to defend against multiple teams. 

Florida State hasn’t been a favorite over power-conference foes all that often since they opened the 2024 season with three consecutive losses when laying points, but they’re 3-1 ATS in four games as a home favorite since then, including the last time they played in Tallahassee – when they blew the doors off Virginia, 38-7. Look for that streak to continue thanks to an efficient rushing attack and a Clemson offense hasn’t been able to put it together.