Conference USA Predictions 2026: Odds, Best Bets & Expert Picks
Once a conference that included the likes of Louisville, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis and East Carolina, Conference USA has fallen into a different role within the college football landscape recently. Through a couple decades of conference realignment, CUSA has become a pathway into the FBS for FCS programs like Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State and Delaware – the former two have already won a conference championship to boot. Furthemore, this league has thrust itself into the national spotlight with weeknight games in October, which serves as a great appetizer for mid-week MACtion in November.
With UTEP moving on to the Mountain West and Louisiana Tech heading to the Sun Belt, Conference USA is down to 10 teams spanning from Newark, Delaware to Las Cruces, New Mexico, and this league is as wide open as it’s ever been. Jacksonville State and New Mexico State both start their seasons with non-conference tilts in Week 0, so the CUSA season is quite literally right around the corner. As such, it’s time to break down the odds to win the conference title, identify the contenders and conclude with a couple best bets.
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2026 Conference USA Championship Odds
Odds courtesy of bet365 at the time of publishing.
- Liberty Flames +280
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +300
- Jacksonville State Gamecocks +475
- Delaware Blue Hens +700
- Kennesaw State Owls +800
- Florida International Panthers +1000
- New Mexico State Aggies +2000
- Missouri State Bears +2500
- Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders +4000
- Sam Houston State Bearkats +7000
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2026 Conference USA Favorites
Liberty Flames +280
The Flames are coming off a disappointing 4-8 season that included four consecutive one-score losses, but Jamey Chadwell probably earned the benefit of the doubt with a College Football Playoff berth in 2023, an 8-3 mark in 2024, and a medical condition that hampered his 2025 campaign. Now seemingly healthy, Chadwell replaced his coordinators and hit the transfer portal to supplement his 57% returning production, which ranks 49th nationally.
Ethan Vasko is back to lead the Liberty offense, but he will be met with some competition from a couple power-conference transfers in Deshawn Purdie (Wake Forest) and Jaylen Henderson (West Virginia). He will need to show immediate improvement in order to keep the job considering he threw the most interceptions and had the fifth-most turnover-worthy plays in the conference a season ago, despite sitting seventh in passing attempts.
Whoever wins the quarterback competition will play behind an offensive line that returns four of the top five in snaps from a year ago. However, the wide receiver group is largely unproven outside of senior Jamari Pearson. The running back group should be a strength, led by power-conference transfers in Kanye Udoh and Kam Davis, as well as Terron Kellman, who came over from Wyoming.
Liberty has less continuity defensively, but as many as six of the top 10 linemen will return, in addition to leading tackler Derrell Farrar. Keep an eye on the secondary, as this is likely to be where most of the growing pains originate. As many as eight transfers are vying for spots on the two-deep, joining two returning pieces in Elijah Hopkins and Jiquavious Marshall that did not produce much last year.
The Flames will kick their conference schedule off with a road game at Delaware, which will be the second game of a back-to-back travel spot, but their conference schedule is manageable otherwise. They will get Western Kentucky at home, while they avoid Jacksonville State during the regular season.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +300
Tyson Helton returns to Bowling Green, Kentucky for his eighth season after winning at least eight games for the fifth year in a row. However, his work will be cut out for him this year, as the ‘Toppers rank 133 in overall returning production, are incorporating their sixth offensive coordinator in seven years and have just one returning contributor on the two-deep of the offensive line.
Quarterback Rodney Tisdale Jr. returns to lead the offense full time after playing half the season behind Maverick McIvor. In nine games, Tisdale threw for 1,432 passes, nine touchdowns and seven picks while adding 100 yards and two touchdowns with his legs. In addition to a revamped offensive line, he will have to work with almost an entirely overhauled wide receiver room that has just one key contributor from last year in K.D. Hutchinson (706 scrimmage yards, five touchdowns), while the running back room also is made up predominately of transfers.
There’s slightly more continuity on the defense considering only two transfers are currently projected to start. However, a vast majority of the top producers moved on, as the returning talent is mostly backups stepping into bigger roles. In fact, six of the top eight in tackles moved on to power-conference programs.
While it doesn’t matter for the sake of the CUSA race, it’s worth mentioning Western Kentucky’s non-conference schedule is brutal. It doesn’t ease up in conference play, even with key home games against Delaware, Jax State and Kennesaw State, while road contests at New Mexico State and Liberty could bite them later in the year.
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2026 Conference USA Contenders
Jacksonville State Gamecocks +475
The 2024 Conference USA Champions went through a major overhaul last year when Rich Rodriguez left for West Virginia, but their success didn’t end with his departure. In their first season under Charles Kelly, the Gamecocks returned to the CUSA title game, though they fell just short against Kennesaw State amid a feverish fourth-quarter comeback. Now in their second season under Kelly, Jacksonville State has a good bit of continuity, relative to the conference, and will aim to make their third straight title game.
Jax State is top-50 when it comes to returning offensive production, but the Gamecocks don’t actually feel that secure in this department. The offensive unit will have a new offensive coordinator in Taylor Housewright, who has minimal experience calling plays at this level, though he was with the program last year as a tight ends coach. He will benefit from having sophomore quarterback Caden Creel back in the mix after throwing for more than 1,500 yards and running for almost 1,200, but with stud running back Cam Cook off to West Virginia and five of JSU’s top eight linemen departing, there are some major holes to fill on this offense. It helps that leading-receiver Deondre Johnson returns after 724 yards and six touchdowns, but four of the top five pass-catchers behind him all departed. Missouri State transfer Ronnel Johnson will be needed immediately after catching 35 passes for 463 yards and two scores at Missouri State last year.
The Gamecocks left a bit to be desired on the other side of the ball last year, finishing eighth in scoring and ninth in total defense in a conference that was absolutely horrible defensively. Coming into this season, they have about 54% of their production returning, headlined by standout sophomore linebacker Mac Sanders, who led the team in tackles as a freshman, as well as Walker O’Steen and Caleb Nix, who combined for seven interceptions. The front of the defense isn’t as fortunate as the back, though, as there is plenty of turnover on the line with the losses of Emmanuel Oyebadejo and Darrell Prater – the team leaders in sacks.
As far as conference schedules go, the Gamecocks lucked out in that they will not have to play Liberty during the regular season, nor will they have to play back-to-back road games at any point. That said, the conference road schedule is somewhat difficult, as they will have to play the reigning champs in Kennesaw State, travel as far west as they can in conference to play New Mexico State and will have to close out the season with road games at WKU and Delaware in two of their last three weeks.
Delaware Blue Hens +700
In their first season as an FBS program, the Blue Hens performed admirably, finishing 6-6 in the regular season and capping it off with a 20-13 win over Louisiana in the 68 Ventures Bowl. I’m expecting this program to take the next step this season, in what will be the fifth year for head coach Ryan Carty. They are 33-17 in his four years as their skipper, including last season’s 7-6 result.
Delaware will benefit from having the most returning production in the conference, sitting 25th nationally with 62% of both the offense and the defense running it back in Newark. Senior quarterback Nick Minicucci is the premier returning piece as the conference leader in passing yards last season. He also finished second in touchdowns and third in big-time throws, but he will have to improve on his conference-leading 23 turnover-worthy plays, which luckily resulted in only seven interceptions.
Minicucci will play behind a line that returns three starters while working in two transfers – one of which was originally recruited by Duke. He will also have solid backfield partners with his top two rushers returning in Jo Silver and Viron Ellison Jr., as well as the addition of Kaderris Roberts from Bowling Green. Out wide, Kyre Duplessis’ 800+ yards and five touchdowns will be missed, but Sean Wilson returns after 877 yards and three touchdowns and will be joined by Oklahoma State transfer Da’Wain Lofton and Coastal Carolina transfer Bryson Graves, the latter of whom tallied 35 receptions with 330 yards and two scores last year. All things considered, this should be a unit that at least matches, if not improves, its 32.1 points per conference game (fourth in conference).
On the other side, Delaware was pretty bad with their backs against the wall. The Blue Hens finished 10th in the league in scoring (31.1) despite finishing fourth in yards allowed against conference opponents, which makes sense when you consider this team was playing its first season against FBS opponents last year. With over 60% of production back, this unit should take the next step. For reference, their top two tacklers will return, as well as four of their top six. In a bad defensive conference, marginal improvement on this side of the ball would go a long way in support of what could be one of the best offenses in the league.
Delaware will have to play the top three teams in the league per the preseason oddsboard, but two of those games – Liberty and Jax State – are at home. That being said, the Liberty game will be immediately after a road trip to Virginia on short rest, which caps off a non-conference schedule that also includes a trip to Vanderbilt. Back-to-back road games at WKU and Kennesaw State is likely where the Blue Hens’ season will be made or broken, but with Minicucci under center, those games are more than winnable.
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Kennesaw State Owls +800
It would be wrong to leave the defending champions out of this discussion, even if I think second-year head coach Jerry Mack has his work cut out for him this season. With only 42% of offensive production returning, Mack will have to replace nine starters on that side of the ball, including the quarterback and all the skill positions. He brought in productive transfers to fill the gaps, but only a small portion of them were productive at the FBS level.
The biggest concern I have is at quarterback, where Syracuse and Kennesaw essentially traded players. With Amari Odom off to Syracuse, former Orange Rickie Collins will take over under center. I’m pessimistic about this change considering Collins finished the year with a 46.2 PFF passing grade, as he threw just six touchdowns with 15 turnover-worth plays and 10 interceptions.
If Collins was plugging into an offense that was otherwise complete around him, I probably would be a bit more bullish on the Owls this year, but that’s not the case. They won’t have a single running back this year that carried the ball for them in 2025, while the top four pass-catchers have all moved on.
On the other side of the ball, nine of the top 19 players that recorded at least 250 snaps return, so there is a bit more continuity on a stop-unit that finished third in scoring against conference opponents last season. That said, it also finished 11th in total defense against conference opponents. With three of their top four leaders in tackles for loss leaving the program in the offseason, as well as three of their top four in passes defended, I expect the Owls to be less efficient in opposing scoring opportunities and regress from their top-20 mark in red zone defense.
The Owls won’t play any back-to-back road games in conference, and they’ll get a week off between their non-conference and conference schedules, which is an ideal set up if you’re a CUSA team. That said, two of their first three conference games are against Jacksonville State and Liberty, and while they are both at home, working in so many new pieces against some of the best teams in the conference is less than ideal. They will also benefit from getting Delaware at home, but two road games in their last three weeks, with a home game against a sneaky FIU team in between, is a difficult end to the year.
Florida International Panthers +1000
It’s only right to include the final team with odds shorter than 20/1 to win the conference, especially after head coach Willie Simmons led the Panthers to seven regular-season wins and a bowl game thanks to a late-season surge that included four straight victories. That said, FIU has so much to replace, ranking 83rd in total returning production – 105th on the offensive side and 76th on defense. Quarterback Keyone Jenkins is gone and will be replaced by App State transfer JJ Kohl, running back Kejon Owens is now in the NFL after tallying 1,401 scrimmage yards and 11 total touchdowns and leading wide receiver Alex Perry transferred to Illinois after putting up 840 yards and nine scores. Even the sure-handed tight end, Dallas Payne, moved on after scoring four touchdowns, as did five of the top seven in snap count across the offensive line.
It’s only slightly better on the defensive side. Leading tackler Johnny Chaney Jr. graduated, as did Keegan Davis (5.5 TFL, 5 sacks), but Kenton Simmons – the team leader in sacks – and Dante Anderson returned on the line after combining for 13 tackles for loss and nine sacks. Percy Courtney Jr. and Josiah Taylor offer some stability in the linebacker room after 13.5 combined tackles for loss and three sacks, which will be much needed considering the secondary is almost completely new. Senior safety Shamir Sterlin will be the leader of this group after two picks and four passes defended, but Mister Clark, Brian Blades, and Jessiah McGrew will be missed.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see FIU win each of their conference home games against New Mexico State, Middle Tennessee State, Missouri State and Sam Houston State. However, with road games at Jax State, Liberty, Delaware and Kennesaw State, including a back-to-back situation against the latter two in November, the Panthers ceiling is somewhat limited. They would have benefitted from having one or two of those games at home.
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2026 Conference USA Champion Best Bet: Delaware Blue Hens +700
While it’s purely coincidental, it’s fun to point out the previous two CUSA champions both won the title in their second FBS season, which is exactly where the Delaware Blue Hens are right now. That’s not why I’m picking Delaware, but it’s a fun correlation.
I’m picking Delaware mostly due to continuity, specifically on the offense. There’s a real argument for Minicucci to be the best signal-caller in the conference this season, and he has the privilege of playing with his top two rushers, one of his 800-yard receivers, and what’s projected to be a good offensive line, which is few and far between in this league coming into this season. The defense will be a work in progress, but as I mentioned before, essentially every team in the conference has a bad defense, so marginal improvement via their top-25 returning production should be enough to support a conference championship – especially when you consider neither of the recent winners were top-four in the conference in total defense. For reference, both were in the top three offensively. In fact, Jax State and Kennesaw State both led the conference in scoring in their title seasons, averaging over 34 points per game. The Blue Hens were fourth last year, putting up 32.1, in their first season at the FBS level. Going one step further, the three teams ahead of them – Kennesaw State, Louisiana Tech, FIU – come into this season either outside the top 100 in returning offensive production or in a completely different conference. It’s Delaware’s for the taking.
2026 Conference USA Prop Bet: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Under 6.5 Total Wins (+150)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM at the time of publishing. Playable to +125.
I’m just not a buyer of the WKU program this season. Sure, Coach Helton has had a very consistent career in Bowling Green, Kentucky, but sitting 133rd nationally in returning production with his sixth offensive coordinator in seven years and a brutal schedule, I have a hard time seeing this season even getting off the ground.
A Week 1 road trip to Nevada isn’t a guarantee given the state of the Hilltoppers program right now, so an 0-3 start after being demolished at Georgia and Indiana in consecutive weeks is a very real possibility. In fact, five of WKU’s first six FBS contests are on the road, and they end the season with games against four of the other top-five teams in the conference per the preseason oddsboard. Honestly, I would entertain alternate unders down to 4.5 for significant plus money. I can give them wins over FCS Mercyhurst and Missouri State, but given the context of their schedule, I have trouble confidently finding them three more wins.
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