Big 12 Championship Predictions 2026: Odds, Best Bets & Expert Picks

It’s been a long and eventful offseason, and the 2026 college football season is nearly upon us. The battle for a spot in the newly revamped 12-team College Football Playoff begins on August 29 and won’t stop until we crown a champion in January. Last season’s National Championship game saw Indiana complete a perfect season with a win over Miami to claim a third straight National Championship for the Big Ten. Who will we see reach the pinnacle of the sport this season? It’s almost time to find out.

With the offseason chaos in the rearview mirror, it’s time to delve into the futures market for each conference, and here we’re taking a look at the Big 12. This is a league with a clear overwhelming favorite at the top, but one that carries plenty of questions heading into the campaign. Let’s look at the latest college football odds for the Big 12, along with our NCAAF picks to win the Big 12 Conference before the 2026 season starts.

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2026 Big 12 Conference Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and available at time of publishing.

• Texas Tech +100
• BYU +550
• Utah +650
• Kansas State +1500
• Houston +1700
• Arizona +1800
• TCU +2000
• Arizona State +2500
• Oklahoma State +3000
• Baylor +4800
• Kansas +5200
• West Virginia +6000
• UCF +7500
• Colorado +9000
• Cincinnati +10000
• Iowa State +11000

See our 2026 Heisman Trophy winner predictions, with our expert picking a longshot at 40/1 odds!

2026 Big 12 contenders

Texas Tech Red Raiders (+100)

Few teams throughout the college football landscape have caused as much of an offseason stir as Texas Tech. Following a Big 12 championship and first-round bye in the College Football Playoff in 2025, the Red Raiders are the heavy favorites to claim a second straight conference title this fall, but they'll have to do so without prized transfer portal acquisition Brendan Sorsby after his exit from the program. Texas Tech will now turn to sophomore Will Hammond at quarterback, who is coming back from a torn ACL and might not suit up until Week 3. Fortunately for the Red Raiders, the offensive line has continuity and the loaded running back and wide receiver rooms should easily be able to carry whichever quarterback ends up suiting up. It's also worth mentioning that Hammond gained some pretty important experience under center a season ago, so he should be effective once he finds his legs after a year away from game action.

As for the other side of the ball, Texas Tech has a lot to replace after boasting the best front seven in the nation a season ago. The losses up front can't be glossed over, but there is plenty to be excited about with this excellent transfer portal class, plus a secondary that should be the best in the conference. Furthermore, Texas Tech happened to hit the schedule lottery, with the Red Raiders somehow avoiding Utah, Kansas State and BYU — the three primary challengers in this league. They will face off against Houston in Week 3, but even that game is in Lubbock. Texas Tech's toughest road game is either Oklahoma State or Baylor, which is a remarkably soft slate for a conference favorite. It's hard to imagine the Red Raiders missing out on an appearance in the Big 12 title game.

BYU Cougars (+550)

After an excellent 2024 season, BYU managed to up the ante last fall with an 11-1 regular season and a berth in the Big 12 title game. The Cougars clearly overachieved but couldn't hang with Texas Tech in either of their meetings against the Red Raiders a season ago. The good news for BYU fans is the gap might have shrunk a bit after the chaos of this offseason in Lubbock, and it doesn't hurt that the Cougars are bringing back quarterback Bear Bachmeier fresh off his first collegiate season in which he finished with over 3,000 passing yards and 26 total touchdowns. The true sophomore is joined by All-Conference running back LJ Martin, who was tabbed to be Big 12 player of the year in the preseason coaches and media polls. Martin will run behind an offensive line that should be among the best in the Big 12, and BYU has plenty of continuity within its experienced coaching staff as well.

Generally speaking, we can count on BYU to field strong defenses, but there could be a few questions on that side of the ball following the departure of defensive coordinator Jay Hill to Michigan. However, there's still enough continuity here for the Cougars to be successful on defense and round into form by the time we hit the second half of the campaign. Furthermore, while the schedule does have some landmines, I only have BYU projected as an underdog in two games (vs Notre Dame, at Utah). With that in mind, even if the Cougars experience some close game regression after benefiting in that department from a season ago, it's hard to see Kalani Sitake's team winning fewer than eight games this fall.

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Utah Utes (+650)

After three decades with the program and 20 years as the head coach, Kyle Whittingham moved on to Michigan in the offseason, and he took offensive coordinator Jason Beck and a whole lot of talent with him. Utah is not a program that is any stranger to roster turnover on a season-to-season basis, but this was a particularly damaging offseason for the Utes on that front. Gone is the entire offensive line and most of the key contributors from last season's stout defensive front, but at least the Utes are bringing back dynamic dual-threat Devon Dampier following an excellent first season in the Big 12. It remains to be seen how Dampier will perform in his first season without Beck as his offensive coordinator, but he'll have a good running back tandem alongside him and new OC Kevin McGiven should lean into the strengths of his quarterback.

Defensively, the Utes lost a number of key pieces up front and new head coach Morgan Scalley is no longer expected to call plays following his move away from the defensive coordinator role. However, the secondary is in pretty good shape — particularly at safety — so that should at least bring some stability to a unit that could really struggle to stop the run. Fortunately for Scalley, the schedule is pretty favorable in his first season as a head coach. Utah has a very nice nonconference runway to start the season, followed by games against Iowa State, Kansas and Colorado — three of the worst teams in the conference by projected win totals. Two of Utah's toughest games (BYU and Houston) are at home, and the Utes don't have a difficult road game until a showdown against Arizona on November 14. The win total feels a bit inflated given the amount of production lost and the lack of depth on the roster, but it's hard to see more than four losses on this schedule.

Kansas State Wildcats (+1500)

Kansas State entered the 2025 season with high expectations, but the Wildcats fell flat on their face in a number of early-season spots en route to a disappointing 6-6 campaign. Now, a new regime is in place as former Kansas State legend Collin Klein is back in the Little Apple as the new head coach following a stint as the Texas A&M offensive coordinator. Klein appears to have the backing of the boosters and it showed in the transfer portal, as the Wildcats made some really nice additions at the skill positions and on the offensive line to reshape this unit into one that should benefit the skillset of Avery Johnson. The third year starter has the talent to succeed at this level, and with the help of Klein in his ear, this might finally be the year for Johnson to break out in a big way.

The potential issues for this team could be on defense, as the Wildcats lost number of impactful players on the defensive line and at linebacker. They were able to add make some notable additions on the defensive line, but it's not a certainty that this transfer-laden defense will be able to gel and function as a cohesive unit right away. Fortunately, the Wildcats were given one of the more favorable schedules in the conference in my estimation, with the first half of the season consisting of five home games and a lone road trip to Cincinnati. The back half is certainly more challenging, but Kansas State should still be favored in at least four of its final six games. With that in mind, I've already taken a position on Over 7.5 wins earlier this summer, and I don't mind taking a shot with the Wildcats to win the conference as a longshot bet.

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Houston Cougars (+1700)

Houston's tenure in the Big 12 appears to be in an upward trajectory in the Willie Fritz era, and the longtime head coach is now in a position where his teams can think bigger. The Cougars won nine regular season games in 2025, and they could've easily finished with double digit wins if not for a three-point loss at home to TCU. Now, the expectations are as high as they've ever been for a program that was in the wilderness for a bit prior to Fritz's arrival. The offseason saw another strong transfer portal class for the offense, with running back Makhi Hughes reuniting with his former head coach from their Tulane days, along with solid additions in the wide receiver room and on the offensive line. Add in the fact that Connor Weigman should be among the best quarterbacks in this conference, and you have a recipe for success on offense.

The Cougars were up-and-down on defense a season ago, and there are a significant amount of projected starters that are transfer portal additions. At this point, I blindly trust Fritz and his staff to incorporate these new pieces and keep things rolling, but it's not a guarantee that this revamped defensive line replicates the success of last season. The good news is the early-season schedule is pretty manageable, including a massive game at Texas Tech in a spot where the Red Raiders might not have a healthy Will Hammond at quarterback. The home schedule is favorable throughout conference play, but road tests against Kansas State, Utah and West Virginia could prove to be very difficult. Ultimately, Houston is a team with a pretty established high floor, but I'd also be fairly surprised if it won more than 9 games this season.

Arizona (+1800)

Brent Brennan's first season at Arizona didn't go according to plan, but the Wildcats bounced back in a big way in 2025 — finishing with a 9-3 record in the regular season and exceeding their win total projection by four wins in the process. Arizona should be right back in the mix in the Big 12 this season thanks to the return of quarterback Noah Fifita, who is among the best (and most experienced) players at his position heading into the 2026 campaign. There is plenty of continuity on this coaching staff and the Wildcats have a very experienced group as a whole on offense. The floor should be pretty high with Fifita under center, and the Wildcats have a pretty straightforward nonconference schedule to work out any kinks. I expect another rock solid season from this group.

Defensively, the Wildcats were excellent against the run a season ago and I expect a similar level of performance from that group this year. I do have some concerns with a pretty significant overhaul in the secondary, especially since Arizona will play a pretty difficult conference schedule — including three of my projected top five quarterbacks in this league. Speaking of the schedule, there are some real landmines here, with the Wildcats having to play four teams I'm pretty high on — Texas Tech, BYU, Kansas State and West Virginia — away from home. Elsewhere, Brennan's group hosts TCU and Utah in back-to-back weeks in November, and both games could have massive conference title game implications. There's a lot to like about this team on paper, but I can't play an over on the win total with this schedule.

TCU Horned Frogs (+2000)

TCU has exceeded its preseason win total in three of the last four seasons, and the Horned Frogs are one of the most intriguing teams in the Big 12 this season. Sonny Dykes and his staff were selective in their transfer portal acquisitions, but they made interesting use of the portal in acquiring former Harvard quarterback Jaden Craig to take over this offense. Craig has the ability to make plays with his legs, and that should make for a nice marriage with Dykes' quarterback friendly system. If the former Ivy League player is able to clean up some of his accuracy issues from previous seasons, there are enough weapons around him for TCU to produce one of the better offenses in the conference.

On the other side of the ball, the Horned Frogs boast a veteran group up front — one that has the potential to take another step forward and become one of the better units in this league. Elsewhere, the linebacking corps is a question mark but the secondary should be solid with a lot of the production from last year's unit returning, including safety Jamel Johnson. TCU should have a nice runway in nonconference play to open the season, before a couple of early Big 12 games against UCF and BYU could define how the season goes for this team. The Horned Frogs do get BYU, Kansas State, West Virginia and Utah at home, which gives them a real chance to make a run at a conference title game appearance. However, with road games against Arizona and Texas Tech in November and this many coin flips on the schedule, I can't quite get there with TCU to win the league at this price.

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2026 Big 12 Championship best bet: Texas Tech (+100)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -125

Ultimately, while I do have a small wager on Kansas State to take home the Big 12 title, my bigger position in this market is on Texas Tech. It's not exciting to bet the overwhelming favorite, but the Red Raiders have the best roster in the conference by a decent margin, and the schedule is one of the easiest in the Power 4 for my money. At the end of the day, getting an even-money price on Joey McGuire's team to win the league will definitely hold some real value when the Red Raiders are laying a touchdown or more in the Big 12 title game in early December.

2026 Big 12 win total best bet: Colorado under 4.5 wins (-160)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -180

This was one of the first win total bets I made in the offseason, and even though I've upgraded Colorado slightly since the spring, I'm still very confident in this wager. The Buffaloes do have an intriguing piece at quarterback with freshman Julian Lewis, and I do like the hire of offensive coordinator Brennan Marion to help right the ship following a disastrous 2025 campaign. However, this is still an extremely unproven group that will need a ton of transfers to perform at a high level on both sides of the ball, and that can't be trusted with how shaky Colorado's infrastructure has been over the last two seasons. Furthermore, this is an absolutely brutal schedule, with the Buffaloes traveling to Georgia Tech and Northwestern in the nonconference, before hosting the likes of Texas Tech, Utah, Houston and Kansas State in Big 12 play. I only have Colorado favored in two games this season, and I can't see the Buffaloes pulling off three upsets to exceed their win total. It should be a long year for Coach Prime and company.

2026 Big 12 win total best bet: Cincinnati under 5.5 wins (-150)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -165

This was another win total that I pounced on early in the offseason, and I still think there's some room to run with this number. Scott Satterfield is not a head coach that I have much belief in, and his tenure at Cincinnati hasn't done much to change my mind to this point. The Bearcats exceeded expectations a season ago thanks to the quarterback play of Brendan Sorsby, but he's out the door and I'm not a fan of his replacement JC French, who comes in from Georgia Southern to take over under center. Additionally, the defensive front lost a ton of production from a season ago and the secondary is replacing four starters from last year's side as well. It's going to take a lot for Cincinnati to overcome its defense, and it doesn't help matters that the Bearcats are expected to play six of the top seven teams in the conference by projected win totals. There's a real chance that the Bearcats lose six consecutive games to open Big 12 play, which could completely torpedo the mentality of this team heading into the final month of the season. Let's back another under for a team that could finish near the basement in this conference.

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