MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Thursday, June 4, inc. Dodgers vs Diamondbacks
Major League Baseball has storylines regarding the CBA negotiations and a potential lockout looming, but the on-field MLB product this season has been very good. There are numerous teams with playoff hopes and several teams making noticeable strides in the right direction as an organization. We should have another entertaining slate of MLB action on Thursday, so let's dive in and discuss my MLB best bets for Thursday, June 4!
MLB Best Bet: Shota Imanaga (CHC) over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-122)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140.
Shota Imanaga has an issue with limiting home runs, as the southpaw hurler has allowed 13 already through his first 70 innings of work. This includes 10 home runs allowed in his last 5 starts alone, with at least 1 surrendered in each start. Among his 13 home runs allowed, 8 have come in his home ballpark -- and more could be in store today. Wrigley Field is extremely receptive to wind, and today's wind is blowing out towards left center at around 13 MPH. These hitter-friendly conditions have resulted in a posted game total of 10 for Thursday's matchup between the Cubs and the Athletics. Moreover, Imanaga has a 10.8%-barrel rate this season, which sits just 13th percentile among MLB pitchers.
The Athletics have been successful against left-handed pitching within the last 30 days. In that sample, they have a 104 wRC+ while generating the 5th best HR/FB ratio. Athletic batters have just 19 combined PA against Imanaga across his career, but they do have 2 home runs in that sample. Imanaga allows a 40.7% hard-hit rate, so even if the Athletics damage doesn't come via the long ball, they are certainly capable of stringing together a long inning or 2. The Cubs starter has an outs recorded line of 17.5 with significant juice towards the over. If he falls short of that mark, we likely won our prop, but I also like that he has the ability to work deep and allow the opposing lineup to see him a 3rd time. Opponents have a .968 OPS against him that 3rd time through, and I look for the Athletics to get to him on Thursday.
Read our full Athletics vs Cubs prediction
MLB Best Bet: Kai-Wei Teng (HOU) over 2.5 walks issued (+132)
Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing. Playable to +110.
Kai-Wei Teng began the season in the bullpen for the Houston Astros. The right-handed pitcher made 13 relief appearances for the club before joining the starting rotation thanks to strong performance and opportunity. His 18 outings have combined for 42 innings of work, posting a 2.57 ERA along the way. Teng has struggled with his command throughout his MLB career so far, and since joining the rotation, those issues have flared up -- as his last 3 outings have included 4, 3 and 4 walks issued. On the year, his 11.3% walk rate sits 23rd percentile, while his career walk rate across 82.2 innings is at 12.2%.
Now Teng draws a matchup against a Pirates lineup that has been very patient this season, ranking 8th-best in walk rate against right-handed pitching at 10.1%. Their 9.9% mark over the last 30 days is tied for 6th-best in that span as well. Pittsburgh has numerous patient bats in their lineup willing to work long counts and take ball 4. As a team, they average the 8th-most pitches seen per plate appearance, and that type of mindset throughout the lineup should serve us well Thursday. Teng also worked a season high 91 pitches across 22 batters faced in his last start, and he enters this game on 5 full days of rest.
MLB Best Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Over 9.5 (-105)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing. Playable to -115.
I look for runs from both sides in Thursday's matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Los Angeles has a historic lineup in terms of talent, and despite some pieces not performing to their typical level, this unit has been on a tear. In the last 30 days against right-handed pitching, the Dodgers sit 1st in wOBA while posting a 121 wRC+. Andy Pages has taken yet another step towards stardom and is crushing the ball currently. His elevation has propelled this lineup and makes them that much scarier moving forward. On Thursday, they will face off against Ryne Nelson of the Diamondbacks, who has a 4.82 ERA across his first 65.1 innings of work. Nelson has faced this Dodgers lineup once already, allowing 4 earned runs and 2 home runs across 4.2 innings of work in his season debut. He has been at his worst when at home this season, posting a 5.97 ERA with 12 walks issued in 31.2 innings of work.
The Diamondbacks have been crushing left-handed pitching. In the last 30 days against southpaw hurlers, Arizona sits 5th in wOBA with a 121 wRC+. They sport the lowest strikeout rate in baseball during that sample, while walking at a 9.9% clip. Justin Wrobleski is the scheduled starter for the Dodgers Thursday. Wrobleski enters play with a 2.87 ERA, but he is due for significant regression as the year continues on. The lefty starter has an xERA a full run higher than his actual ERA, and he struggles to miss bats. His 16% strikeout rate is just a 13th-percentile mark, and he also fails to keep the ball on the ground. Wrobleski profiles more as a backend starter. While still a solid option overall, I look for the Diamondbacks to contribute to the posted game total.
