MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Friday, July 24, inc. Cubs vs Pirates & Angels vs Giants

I am heading out for a golf trip this weekend, but there is business to attend to first with a loaded 15-game slate of MLB action for Friday. There are 3 MLB best bets standing out to me this morning that I'd like to share, so let's dive in and discuss! Among today's big matchups are Yankees vs Phillies and Blue Jays vs Red Sox on Apple TV, plus Cubs vs Pirates, Braves vs Orioles, Dodgers vs Mets and Mariners vs Rangers. You can get our expert MLB picks for those games and every matchup today.

MLB Best Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates ML over Chicago Cubs (-122)

Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are beginning a stretch of 17 straight game days as they host the Chicago Cubs Friday. Chicago enters this series 4.5 games ahead of the Pirates in the standings, while Pittsburgh is 0.5 games back from the final wild card spot. To say this is a massive series would be an understatement, and I am fired up to see the outcome of this 3-game set. 

Game 1 will be started by Matthew Boyd of the Cubs and Jared Jones of the Pirates. Boyd has tossed quality starts in 2 of his last 3 attempts, but his underlying metrics don’t support that success. On the year, his 4.71 xERA overshadows his 4.15 ERA. Boyd ranks 9th percentile in hard-hit rate, 17th percentile in barrel rate and 21st percentile in xBA. Pittsburgh has picked up their production against lefties in the last 30 days, ranking 7th in wOBA with a 118 wRC+ in that sample.

Jared Jones has looked terrific for the Pirates across his first 3 outings in July. Through 15 innings of work, the right-hander has 23 strikeouts with only 3 walks issued and just 2 earned runs surrendered. Jones has been aggressive with attacking the zone early and often in counts. I am optimistic he can continue his success given his 90th-percentile strikeout rate and his 3.31 xERA. Chicago ranks 11th in wOBA with a 108 wRC+ against righties in the last 30 days, but I still favor the Pirates at home as they begin this season-defining stretch.

Get the full analysis of our Cubs vs Pirates prediction

MLB Best Bet: Chicago White Sox ML over Houston Astros (-129)

Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140.

The Chicago White Sox are home as they host the Houston Astros for a 3-game weekend series, where they are 31-17 this season. Moreover, they have the superior starter in terms of recent form, and their lineup is in better form against right-handed pitching. I favor Chicago on Friday as they look to extend their American League Central lead.

Davis Martin is tabbed as the starter for Chicago in Game 1, which will be his 20th start of the season. He enters play with a 3.31 ERA across his first 106 innings pitched, and that ERA lowers to a dominant 1.80 mark in his home park. Martin does have shakier underlying metrics with his xERA a full run higher, but he limits walks and limits barrels, which is a solid recipe for run prevention.

Houston ranks 14th in wOBA with a 106 wRC+ against righties in the last 30 days, but Chicago is outpacing them in that span, sitting 7th in wOBA with a 119 wRC+. The White Sox have a powerful lineup, and they draw a favorable matchup against Spencer Arrighetti. Arrighetti is someone I have suggested betting against, as his underlying metrics are so drastically different from his surface level numbers. Regression did indeed catch up to him as the right-hander has allowed 35 earned runs in his last 40 innings pitched.

Read our full Astros vs White Sox prediction

MLB Best Bet: Logan Webb (SF) under 2.5 earned runs allowed in Angels vs Giants (-162)

Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -175.

Logan Webb had a tough time adjusting to the automated ball strike zone this season with the nature of his East-to-West style pitching. Webb’s profile was largely based on deception and garnering strikes on the edges that perhaps weren’t actually strikes. Having Patrick Bailey as his catcher benefited that style of pitching as well. Bailey is now gone, but Webb has still found a way to find success for the Giants, albeit maybe not at his peak level. 

Webb enters play with a 3.87 ERA and 3.94 xERA across 107 innings of work. His strikeout rate is down after a career year in that department last season, but the right-hander is still elite at generating ground balls. This season he ranks 88th percentile in ground ball rate and 85th percentile in barrel rate. His walks were piling up at the beginning of the season as he adjusted to the new zone, but he now sits 83rd percentile in that metric.

Webb’s last 2 starts were on the road, and he allowed over 2.5 earned runs in both outings against the Mariners and Rockies. He returns home now, where he has been much better across his career. Webb’s last 3 home starts have combined for 23 innings with 2 walks issued and 1 earned run allowed. He now faces an Angels unit ranking 27th in wOBA with a 76 wRC+ against righties in the last 30 days. Each of the last 6 right-handed starters to face the Angels have allowed fewer than 3 earned runs, and I expect that streak to continue with Webb.

Get MLB stats, trends and more in our Angels vs Giants prediction