MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Friday, July 31, inc. Rays vs White Sox
We have a loaded slate of MLB action as we enter the final set of series before the trade deadline on Monday. There are countless teams debating to buy or sell, and perhaps others looking to do a bit of both. With such high stakes this weekend there should be plenty of betting value to uncover. Let's dive in and discuss my 3 MLB best bets for Friday, July 31. You can also get our expert MLB picks for EVERY GAME today, including Yankees vs Cubs, Pirates vs Reds, Phillies vs Orioles, Nationals vs Braves and Red Sox vs Dodgers, along with the Apple TV doubleheader of Rangers vs Astros and Giants vs Padres.
MLB Best Bet: Tampa Bay Rays ML over Chicago White Sox (-142)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -150.
The Tampa Bay Rays are 40-16 in their home ballpark this season. Nick Martinez is the scheduled starter for Tampa Bay, as he is set to make his 21st start, entering play with a 2.45 ERA across his first 117.1 innings of work. By all accounts, the veteran right-hander has outperformed his expected metrics all season. However, he has earned some of that success given his 87th-percentile hard-hit rate and his 99th-percentile walk rate. While not a strikeout pitcher, Martinez is my preferred starting option in this matchup, especially considering he draws the lineup in weaker form.
Chicago, across the last 30 days against right-handed pitching, has a 94 wRC+ while sitting 22nd in wOBA. Tampa Bay, in that same sample, sits 14th in wOBA with a 104 wRC+. Both lineups have cooled off compared to their season-long metrics, but I expect a decent showing from Tampa Bay offensively. Erick Fedde is set to make his 22nd appearance and 12th start of the season Friday, entering with a 4.25 ERA and 4.72 xERA across his first 97.1 innings. Like Martinez, Fedde struggles to generate whiffs, and his overall performance on the road has taken a massive hit with a 5.40 road ERA across 46.2 frames. Needless to say, I favor the Rays in this spot.
Get our full White Sox vs Rays prediction for tonight's MLB matchup
MLB Best Bet: Shota Imanaga (CHC) over 5.5 strikeouts recorded in Yankees vs Cubs (-136)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -150.
Shota Imanaga has had an up-and-down season for the Chicago Cubs, but he remains one of their stronger starting options. He has been a better performer when away from his home park this season, but I am willing to back him at Wrigley on Friday in an advantageous matchup. Imanaga draws the New York Yankees at a time when opposing pitchers are salivating. New York has had expanded struggles against both right and left-handed pitching lately, particularly in the strikeout department.
Against lefties, specifically in the last 30 days, New York has baseball’s highest strikeout rate at 29.0%. In that sample of 293 plate appearances, the Yankees sit 28th in wOBA with a 74 wRC+ and the 9th-lowest walk rate. Even Anthony Kay recorded 7 strikeouts in this matchup just 3 days ago.
Imanaga has had success this season when it comes to generating chases on swings outside the strike zone. He ranks 94th percentile in that metric while also sitting 76th percentile in whiff rate. Imanaga honestly appears due for positive regression in the strikeout department, and I expect that to start Friday against New York.
Get our full Yankees vs Cubs prediction for this afternoon's game
MLB Best Bet: Shane Drohan (MIL) over 5.5 strikeouts recorded in Brewers vs Angels (-135)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -150.
Shane Drohan is coming off a poor performance against the Colorado Rockies in which he allowed 5 earned runs. He delivered 6 innings of work in that outing at least, showcasing his ability to go deep into games even without his best stuff. Milwaukee gave Drohan some extra rest between starts in hopes to refresh his arm a bit more, so he will make today’s start on 6 full days of rest as Milwaukee hopes this will help regain his form.
With 82 innings of a 3.51 ERA, Drohan has been a major contributor towards the success of this Milwaukee pitching staff. His 3.32 xERA is the product of a healthy 17.3% K-BB% and a 66th-percentile xBA. He is elite at generating chases on pitches located outside the strike zone, ranking 82nd percentile in that metric this season.
Drohan faces an Angels lineup sporting the 2nd highest strikeout rate against lefties in the last 30 days at 27.9%. I look for the Angels to continue that strikeout trend and favor the over on Drohan’s posted strikeout prop given current pricing.
Read our full Brewers vs Angels prediction, featuring MLB stats, trends and more!
