MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Friday, September 4, inc. Brewers vs Reds & Angels vs Pirates

Happy Friday everyone! There are several MLB games on tap on Friday's slate worth diving into from a viewership standpoint, and from a betting perspective. I am seeing value as well! Let's dive in and discuss my three MLB best bets for today, while you can also get our expert MLB picks for all 16 games on Friday, September 4, including Tigers vs Guardians and Angels vs Pirates on Apple TV, plus Brewers vs Reds, Braves vs Phillies, Red Sox vs Orioles, Cubs vs Marlins, Rays vs Rangers, Diamondbacks vs Astros and Yankees vs Padres.

MLB Best Bet: Milwaukee Brewers ML over Cincinnati Reds (-153)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -165 odds.

I favor the Milwaukee Brewers over the Cincinnati Reds on Friday and show some value on their current ML price. Milwaukee will send Shane Drohan to the mound for his 28th appearance and 17th start of the season. The southpaw hurler has amassed 110.1 innings this season with 110 strikeouts and a 3.75 ERA. His 3.60 xERA ranks 70th percentile, and the rest of his underlying metrics are solid as well. The lefty is fortunate to be a lefty for his matchup against the Cincinnati Reds, as they have struggled to produce against southpaws all season long. In the last 30 days, Cincinnati sits 26th in wOBA with a 75 wRC+. Drohan enters this game in solid form and should continue that form Friday.

Rhett Lowder is the scheduled starter for the Reds Friday. He is someone I have picked on regularly this season, and I am not fond of his matchup against the Brewers. In 24 appearances spanning 112 innings pitched, Lowder has posted a 5.14 ERA with a 5.12 xERA behind it. His 7th-percentile whiff rate and 15th-percentile barrel rate are a troubling combination for run prevention, especially when facing this Brewers lineup. Milwaukee sits fourth in wOBA against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days, and they have already gotten to Lowder twice this season.

Read the full analysis for our Brewers vs Reds prediction tonight

MLB Best Bet: Shane Drohan (MIL) over 5.5 strikeouts recorded in Brewers vs Reds (+109)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -110 odds.

Let’s stick with Shane Drohan and back him in the strikeout department as well. Drohan has faced this Reds lineup twice already this season, putting together solid outings in both matchups. Those starts were back-to-back outings, and typically close proximity rematches tend to favor the offense. The first matchup resulted in only 4.1 innings pitched due to three walks issued, but Drohan struck out five Reds across those scoreless innings. The next matchup was even better for Drohan, tossing 5.2 innings with seven strikeouts recorded. 

I mentioned that the Reds have struggled to produce against lefties this season, and a large reason why is their high strikeout rate. In the last 30 days, that rate sits at 25.4%, the seventh-highest mark in that sample. Drohan ranks 81st percentile in chase rate this season while sitting 66th percentile in whiff rate as well. Part of his success comes from his pitch usage, utilizing five different pitches at least 12% of the time. He generates a whiff rate of at least 29.9% on four different pitches, and he should be effective today against the Reds.

MLB Best Bet: Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates Over 8.5 (+100)

Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing. Playable to -105 odds.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are set to host the Los Angeles Angels for a weekend series, and I favor the over in Game 1 of the set. Jared Jones had his start pushed back and will make his next appearance in this matchup Friday. The Pirates are being cautious with his workload given his injury history and the team’s lack of contention at this point in the year. Jones has spanned just 20.2 total innings in his last five starts made. His 12 walks issued and five home runs allowed helped contribute to a poor month in August, posting a 7.40 ERA in that sample. His underlying metrics are still better than his actual numbers, but he is not an invincible arm right now. Behind him is a highly worked Pirates bullpen that will struggle to cover innings following his exit.

Ryan Johnson is someone I look to pick on given his shaky underlying metrics. The right-handed starter for the Angels has a 5.47 ERA and a 5.51 xERA that ranks fourth percentile on the season. Johnson walks batters, allows barrels and struggles to generate many whiffs. His performance on the road has also been a glaring concern, posting a 6.48 road ERA on the year. Pittsburgh is a flawed lineup with high whiff rates and inconsistent play of late, but I expect them to do some offensive damage in this spot.

Get MLB stats, trends and more for tonight's Angels vs Pirates prediction live on Apple TV