MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Monday, June 15, inc. Rays vs Dodgers
Sunday's MLB action was certainly entertaining, seeing 32 runs scored between the Rockies and Athletics and several underdog's grabbing wins. Monday's slate of games presents us with new series and several possible betting angles. Let's dive in and discuss my 3 MLB best bets for Monday, June 15, while you can also check out our experts' MLB picks for all 10 games today.
MLB Best Bet: Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers over 9 (-108)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -115.
I favor the over on the posted game total in Monday’s matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa Bay enters this set of games following a series loss to the Angels, but they don’t have to travel as they remain in Los Angeles to face the Dodgers. The Dodgers lost their weekend series to the White Sox who are on a tear currently. This sets up to be an intriguing series between 2 teams atop the MLB standings.
Eric Lauer is the scheduled starter for Los Angeles on Monday. Lauer has made 3 starts so far as a member of the Dodgers, tossing 16.1 innings with 5 earned runs allowed. Los Angeles has won all 3 of his starts thanks to 33 runs of support in that span. Lauer has allowed 4 home runs in those outings, however, and going back to his time with Toronto the southpaw hurler has allowed 15 home runs across 52.2 innings this season. He has allowed at least 1 home run in 9 straight outings which is certainly concerning. His low whiff rate combined with a high barrel rate is worrisome against a Tampa Bay lineup that doesn’t strike out often against left-handed pitching.
Nick Martinez is set to start this game for the Rays. Martinez has made 13 starts spanning 77.2 innings of work so far. His 2.43 ERA is an excellent mark, but it is shadowed by a 4.45 xERA and some worrisome underlying metrics. Martinez ranks just 7th percentile in whiff rate and 9th percentile in xBA. He didn’t allow more than 2 earned runs in any of his first 11 starts but his last 2 outings have resulted in 9 earned runs across 11 innings to Detroit and Boston. The Dodgers are mashing right-handed pitching across the last 30 days, ranking 2nd in wOBA with a 126 wRC+. I anticipate runs scored from both sides this evening.
MLB Best Bet: Chase Burns (CIN) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-150)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -165.
Chase Burns has been elite for the Cincinnati Reds in 2026. The former 2nd overall draft pick in the 2024 MLB draft has registered a 2.14 ERA across his first 75.2 innings of work in 2026. The right-hander has made 13 starts so far with 12 resulting in 2 or fewer earned runs allowed. This includes 6 of his 7 starts made at home. Burns has been elite in the strikeout department, ranking 92nd percentile with his 29.6% clip. He earns those strikeouts thanks to a 95th percentile whiff rate and 78th percentile chase rate. Young strikeout artists can struggle with command traditionally but Burns ranks 64th percentile this season in walk rate.
Burns faces the New York Mets lineup on Monday. This Mets unit is one he has already faced this season, tossing 5.1 innings of 2-run ball on May 26. I don’t love repeat matchups, especially within a month, but Burns is more than capable of producing another quality outing against this lineup. New York ranks 21st in wOBA across the last 30 days against right-handed pitching, albeit with a 100 wRC+. On the year the Mets have the 2nd worst wOBA against righties. At current pricing I feel required to back Burns in this market.
MLB Best Bet: Brandon Lowe (PIT) over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-152)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -165.
Brandon Lowe has been one of the best offseason acquisitions any team made this past offseason. The Pittsburgh Pirates had a need for a power-hitting middle infielder, and they went out and traded for what has been MLB’s most productive offensive 2nd baseman so far this season. Lowe was excellent in his final season with Tampa Bay, registering 30+ home runs for the 2nd time in his career and earning an All-Star nod along the way. Through 66 games with his new club Lowe has clubbed 17 home runs with 46 RBI and an .837 OPS. The lefty slugger has gone hitless in his last 2 games, but I am more than willing to buy into his props on Monday.
Lowe and the Pirates are set to play on the moon for a week, taking on the Athletics in Sacramento before traveling to Coors Field to take on the Rockies. We should expect their game totals to be in the double digits during this road trip, and that is true Monday with a 10.5 total set. Lowe is expected to bat 2nd, sandwiched between Spencer Horwitz and Bryan Reynolds who are both having fantastic seasons. Pittsburgh is expected to have 7 lefty bats within their lineup today as they look to take advantage of J.T. Ginn’s weaker split.
Lowe should be set for 5 or more plate appearances with Pittsburgh guaranteed to bat in the 9th regardless of score. He has crushed right-handed pitching in 2026 with his OPS rising to .940. Of his 17 home runs, 13 have come against righties, and I am very content getting current pricing on this prop Monday. It also doesn’t hurt that Lowe has a home run off Ginn in their brief history against each other.
