MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Monday, June 22, inc. Diamondbacks vs Cardinals
After a fun weekend of MLB action, we are starting a new week with some new series today. There are several intriguing matchups from both a viewership and betting perspective, and 3 MLB best bets stood out to me on this morning's board. Let's dive in and discuss my 3 favorite MLB betting angles for Monday, June 22! You can also find out all our expert MLB picks for every game today and throughout the entire 2026 season.
MLB Best Bet: St. Louis Cardinals ML over Arizona Diamondbacks (-140)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -150 odds.
I favor the St. Louis Cardinals over the Arizona Diamondbacks during their matchup on Monday. St. Louis defeated the Royals 12-10 on Sunday to avoid the sweep at the hands of their interleague rival. They return home Monday to take on the Diamondbacks, who are fresh off a series loss of their own. Arizona ran into a hot Minnesota offense and lost 2 of 3 games in that series.
Merrill Kelly is set to start for the Diamondbacks on Monday, but it has been a poor season for the veteran right-hander. Through his first 69.2 innings of work Kelly has posted a 5.81 ERA with a 7.51 xERA shadowing it. Kelly ranks just 2nd percentile in strikeout rate and 1st percentile in barrel rate allowed this season. He was knocked around by a poor Angels offense in his last outing and now draws a Cardinals offense in good form. St. Louis ranks 10th in wOBA with a 120 wRC+ across the last 30 days.
In that sample sample the Diamondbacks sit 28th in wOBA with an 81 wRC+. They also face the starter in superior form with Andre Pallante pitching well for the Cardinals. Through his first 76.2 innings of work the right-hander has posted a 3.76 ERA with a 3.68 xERA to back him up. For the first time in his career, Pallante’s advanced metrics support his success, ranking well in every metric outside of whiffs and strikeouts. St. Louis has won each of his last 5 starts made and I look for that to continue with a Cardinals win on Monday.
Get our expert's full Diamondbacks vs Cardinals prediction and analysis breakdown
MLB Best Bet: New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Over 8.5 (-114)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120 odds.
Kodai Senga returned from the injured list to toss 4 innings of 4-run ball with 4 walks issued against the Cincinnati Reds. Senga has just 24 innings under his belt across 6 appearances this season, with each of the last 4 resulting in 4 innings or fewer. His 17 walks issued and 7 home runs in that small sample are extremely worrisome. The Cubs have a 109 wRC+ against right-handed pitching across the last 30 days, and I expect them to continue that form with solid production on Monday.
Shota Imanaga is set to start this game for the Cubs, marking his 16th start of the season. Imanaga has been better on the road this season, but overall, it has not been his best work so far in 2026. The southpaw starter has allowed 17 home runs this season and his 10.4% barrel rate ranks just 18th percentile. Imanaga has done well with generating strikeouts and limiting walks, but I still believe the Mets can get to him for a few runs. New York ranks 11th in wOBA with a 113 wRC+ against lefties across the last 30 days and I favor the over on this posted game total.
Read our full Cubs vs Mets prediction for tonight's matchup
MLB Best Bet: Anthony Kay (CWS) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-155)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -170 odds.
Anthony Kay has had a tough schedule of opponents to begin his month of June, facing the Phillies, Dodgers, and Yankees. The matchups with Philadelphia and New York were tough road spots, but he returns home Monday where he has been much stronger in 2026. Kay has a 3.08 home ERA across 38 innings there compared to a 6.40 ERA in 32.1 road innings. Through the month of May Kay had posted a 3.77 ERA and he had a 1.95 ERA across 32.1 innings in May alone. Only 4 of his 15 appearances this season have resulted in more than 2 earned runs, and I am a fan of his matchup on Monday.
Kay draws the Cleveland Guardians on Monday, and Cleveland is slumping very hard against southpaw pitching. Across the last 30 days of play Cleveland sits last in wOBA 72 wRC+ and a 25.9% strikeout rate. Their .596 OPS in that span is .042 lower than any other club in the sport, and they have failed to score 3 or more earned runs off 7 of the 9 lefty starters they’ve seen in that sample. At current pricing I will back Kay in the earned runs market on Monday.
