MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Saturday, August 15, inc. Tigers vs White Sox

We have a fun slate of MLB action on tap for Saturday, August 15, and there are a trio of best bets standing out to me among the rest. Let's dive into the MLB odds and discuss my MLB predictions for Saturday!

MLB Best Bet: Detroit Tigers ML (-134) over the Chicago White Sox

Odds available at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds.

Troy Melton has been one of my favorite arms to bet on this season. The right-handed starter for the Detroit Tigers has made 13 starts spanning 80 innings pitched this season. His .171 opponent batting average is the product of an 81st percentile hard-hit rate and an 84th percentile barrel rate. Melton enters play with a 1.46 ERA. His 3.06 xERA is obviously a much worse mark, but a number that sits him 86th percentile. Melton has tossed 20 innings with 0 earned runs allowed in his last 3 starts and the White Sox have been below average against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. In that sample they sit 20th in wOBA with a 94 wRC+ and 25.0% strikeout rate.

Anthony Kay is the scheduled starter for the White Sox on Saturday as the left-hander is set to make his 25th appearance of the season. It will be his 23rd start of the year in what has been largely a productive season. The southpaw hurler has a 3.96 ERA on paper, but his 5.08 xERA is a more worrisome mark. Not a big strikeout arm, Kay thrives when able to draw chases and generate ground ball outs. He has largely pitched very well of late for Chicago, but he has been worse on the road this season with his ERA at 4.88. Detroit is not in very good offensive form against lefties currently, but they do have the preferred starting option, and I will back the Tigers at current pricing.

MLB Best Bet: Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) under 3.5 earned runs allowed (-155)

Odds available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -170 odds.

If you’ve bet Eduardo Rodriguez starts this year based on expected metrics and projections, then you have not enjoyed betting on his starts this season. Rodriguez has consistently outperformed his expected metrics, and we are mid-way through August at this point. The veteran southpaw hurler enters play with a 2.70 ERA through 143.1 innings pitched. His xERA sits over 2 full runs higher at 4.78, yet he just tossed 7 innings of 2-run ball against the Dodgers. Rodriguez threw 7 scoreless frames against the Braves earlier this season, albeit back in April, but that gives me some confidence he can pitch well in this spot against a tough unit.

Atlanta has hit lefties well in the last 30 days, ranking 7th in wOBA with a 112 wRC+ in that span. More recently, however, we have seen some strong performances from lefties against this Braves squad. Zac Thornton (twice), Max Fried, Sean Manaea, and Trevor Rogers have each thrown quality starts against this lineup within the last 3 weeks. To give Rodriguez a 3.5 line earned run prop doesn’t make much sense to me when he has allowed 3 or fewer in 19 of 24 starts this season. At current pricing this is a prop I must play despite his regression concerns.

MLB Best Bet: Sonny Gray (BOS) over 5.5 strikeouts recorded (+116)

Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +105 odds.

A plus-money prop is always a good way to make a Saturday even better. Even when that prop required picking on your favorite team. My Pittsburgh Pirates have been striking out a ton against right-handed pitching this season, and it has gotten worse across the last 30 days. In that span the team ranks 3rd worst with a 25.9% strikeout rate to a walk rate of just 7.4%. Pittsburgh is showing spotty plate discipline and there have been several high strikeout totals posted against them of late.

Sonny Gray is the next right-hander to face them, and he has an enticing price on his over 5.5 prop. I would be comfortable laying juice on over 4.5 but see value in his upside today. Gray ranks just 41st percentile in strikeout rate this season, but we have seen his upside throughout his career with several high strikeout seasons and steady play. Even this year he has posted 7 or more strikeouts on 7 different occasions. His 79th percentile chase rate is an elite mark and one that should serve him well in this matchup.