MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Saturday, September 26, inc. Pirates vs Tigers
The final Saturday slate of the MLB regular season is here but it is admittedly a tough slate to find value in. There are numerous games with unannounced pitching plans and several betting props with one-way markets. Nonetheless, I have found 3 spots worth discussing so let's dive in!
MLB Best Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates First 5 Innings Team Total over 2.5 (+124)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +115 odds.
Justin Verlander is set to make his final career MLB start at the age of 43. The future Hall-of-Fame right-hander has made just one start this season. That outing came all the way back in March, allowing 5 earned runs in 3.2 innings against the Diamondbacks. In June he made 2 minor league rehab outings, the last of which he allowed 4 home runs in against the Twins AAA affiliate. Verlander is making 1 final outing in a Tigers uniform for a sentimental moment, but I am looking to bet against the 43-year-old’s arm in this game.
Last season Verlander had a surprisingly good season, posting a 3.85 ERA across 152 innings with the Giants, but his xERA of 4.24 was less impressive and he benefited from making his home starts in the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park. Verlander is surely going to be fired up for this game, and he will give it everything his arm has to offer given this is his last career start. That being said, I think this Pirates lineup has enough pop in it to give Verlander troubles and make things interesting with their first 5 innings team total. That prop is tagged with a plus-money price, and I am willing to bite given the potential rust and high emotions.
MLB Best Bet: St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers under 7.5 (-102)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -110 odds.
The game total for Saturday’s game between the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals sits at 7.5. While not a high total, I do lean towards the under given the pitching plan on both sides. Quinn Matthews will make just his 9th career start in this game, and his 1st of many against the Milwaukee Brewers. Milwaukee has been a very good lineup against left-handed pitching this season, and the same has been true across the last 30 days. During that span the Brewers sit 8th in wOBA with a 113 wRC+ and very low strikeout rate. It is a tough matchup for the rookie southpaw, but Matthews enters this game in good form.
In his last 5 starts he has allowed just 8 earned runs combined across 30.1 innings of work. He has 3 straight quality starts entering this matchup and has really only struggled in 1 start so far. That one poor outing came against the Phillies, allowing 7 of his 18 earned runs this season in 1 outing. So far through 44.1 MLB innings his barrel rate sits at 3.8% while allowing a hard-hit rate of just 34.8%.
Dustin May began his season with the Cardinals, posting a 4.38 ERA with the club before his trade deadline deal to Milwaukee. He has not been very good with the Brewers so far, and his role has been reduced to a multi-inning opener prior to the postseason beginning. This is how he will be used in the playoffs, and in theory it is a role he should thrive in. Paired with several other Brewer arms that can deliver electric spurts, this Brewers backend unit could be versatile enough for them to advance in the playoffs. St. Louis is in poor form against both handedness of pitching and I favor the under in this game.
MLB Best Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks ML vs San Diego Padres (+106)
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +100 odds.
Corbin Burnes has once again hit the IL for the Arizona Diamondbacks, this time in the midst of a heated battle for the final wild card spot in the National League. Burnes returned to make 3 brief and largely ineffective outings for the Diamondbacks before shoulder inflammation stirred up. This was his scheduled day in the rotation for Arizona and their pitching plan for Saturday’s crucial game is in the air. What I do know is that Arizona is in excellent form as a team, entering this game with 6 straight wins to pull within a single game of the final wild card spot. They have their backs against the wall and will use all hands on deck for this game from a pitching perspective.
Walker Buehler is the scheduled starter for San Diego as the right-hander makes his 32nd start of the year. It has been a healthy season for Buehler, and while his ERA may not be ideal, the innings have been exactly what San Diego needed. The Padres had a slew of injuries from their rotation this season, and it was a unit that entered the season with shaky depth. Buehler’s presence was crucial in getting San Diego to where they stand today. He still has extremely shaky metrics however, and he is not someone I am confident in betting on against Arizona’s current form.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres prediction: Diamondbacks ML (+106) available at time of publishing. Playable to +100 odds.
