MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Sunday, July 5, inc. Mets vs Braves

The 4th of July provided tons of fireworks across the baseball landscape, and it was an enjoyable slate from start to finish with the Pickswise crew going 11-4 on game previews and 2-1 on best bets. Sunday presents us with another beautiful slate of games, and there are 3 best bets standing out to me. Let's dive in and discuss these betting angels below, while you can check out our MLB predictions for tips and analysis on EVERY game throughout the season.

MLB Best Bet: New York Mets ML over Atlanta Braves (+100)

Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -110.

I favor the New York Mets over the Atlanta Braves on Sunday, June 5. Nolan McLean struggled against the Cubs 2 starts ago, but 5 of his last 6 earned runs have each resulted in 2 or fewer earned runs allowed. McLean enters Sunday with a 3.78 ERA across 95.1 innings of work, and his 3.46 xERA supports his success. The right-hander generates a healthy ground ball rate while recording an 87th percentile strikeout rate. Walks are his main concern, but Atlanta is in horrid form offensively against right-handed pitching. In the last 30 days, no lineup has a worse wOBA than the Braves while their wRC+ sits at 71.

Martin Perez has a 3.27 ERA through his first 77 innings pitched this season, but I am not buying his success as sustainable for the remainder of the year. Perez has a 4.36 xERA sitting a full run higher than his current ERA, and the veteran southpaw is coming off back-to-back shaky outings. Against the Cardinals and Padres Perez allowed 7 walks and 3 home runs which resulted in 7 earned runs. New York ranks 6th in wOBA with a 123 wRC+ against southpaw pitching in the last 30 days and I expect that to continue Sunday.

MLB Best Bet: Milwaukee Brewers ML over Arizona Diamondbacks (-120)

Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

Eduardo Rodriguez has the 4th-best ERA among qualified pitchers this season at 2.21. He has made 17 starts spanning 102 innings of work, providing consistent depth into games for a ball club that has sorely needed his production. The rest of this starting rotation has been a challenge for Arizona, and E-Rod has provided a steady presence for the Diamondbacks. That being said, he draws a tough matchup on Sunday, and I am willing to fade Rodriguez given his shaky underlying metrics. Despite his 2.21 ERA, his xERA sits at 4.90. This is one of the larger discrepancies we have among MLB pitchers currently. He doesn’t strike many batters out, he walks batters, he allows hard contact and there is a chance we see a far different 2nd half of the season for Rodriguez than the 1st. 

Milwaukee sits 10th in wOBA with a 111 wRC+ against southpaw pitching in the last 30 days. In that same span, the Diamondbacks rank 29th in wOBA against right-handed pitching with a 77 wRC+. They face Brandan Sproat, who is set to make his 17th appearance and 15th start of the season. Sproat has a 5.28 ERA across his first 75 innings pitched with a 4.64 xERA behind it. Like Rodriguez, Sproat allows barrels, tons of hard contact and issues free passes. He does generate strikeouts, however, including 28 across 26 innings in June. That was a solid month for him with a 3.46 ERA, and I see value in backing the Brewers on Sunday.

We have more MLB best bets for Sunday's action

MLB Best Bet: Tampa Bay Rays Team Total over 4.5 vs Houston Astros (+100)

Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -110.

Peter Lambert is the scheduled starter for the Astros on Sunday, as the right-hander looks to make his 14th start of the season. Lambert has provided Houston with much-needed innings and decent production to this point, posting a 3.51 ERA through his first 74.1 innings of work. His month of June was his best in terms of ERA at 3.10, allowing just 10 earned runs in 29 innings pitched. It appears as though he was fortunate to post that ERA, however, as the right-hander allowed 8 home runs in those 5 starts with at least 1 allowed in each outing.

Eventually those home runs will not be solo shots, and we could see Lambert's ERA soon spike if he can't figure out how to keep the ball in the park. Tampa Bay ranks 7th in wOBA with a 127 wRC+ against righties in the last month, so I am a fan of their matchup Sunday. The Rays sport an extremely low strikeout rate while also generating walks and displaying power. I love the matchup for Junior Caminero if I had to highlight one specific bat, but I believe we see 5 or more runs from the Rays on Sunday.

Get our full Rays vs Astros prediction