MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Sunday, June 7, including Jameson Taillon's Command
Sunday baseball is here, and we have an interesting slate of MLB action. There are some spots I can't wait to see unfold today that unfortunately did not have a ton of betting value. However, there were 3 spots that stood out to me from a betting perspective this morning. Let’s dive into those picks, while you can get our MLB predictions for tips and analysis on EVERY game throughout the MLB season.
MLB Best Bet: Jameson Taillon (CHC) under 1.5 walks issued (-140)
Odds available at Bet365 sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -155.
Jameson Taillon has always had very solid command of the strike zone. He has never been afraid to fill up the zone and pitch to contact rather than issuing free passes by trying to dance around corners. Even in the later stages of his career, he is still someone who displays plus command. This season, he ranks 65th percentile with a 7.5% walk rate, and even that mark is an elevated rate for his career. He is generating chases on pitches outside the zone at his highest rate since 2022.
The main reason for looking into Taillon’s command today is his matchup with the San Francisco Giants. Over the last 30 days, the Giants have MLB’s lowest walk rate against right-handed pitching. In that sample, their 6.4% walk rate is the lowest mark in the sport. San Francisco batters also have the 5th-highest chase rate and the 3rd-highest overall swing rate over the last month. Taillon has allowed 1 or 0 walks in 6 of his first 12 starts this season, and I expect a 7th today.
MLB Best Bet: Cade Cavalli (WAS) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-150)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -165.
Cade Cavalli is underrated, in my opinion. The right-handed hurler has made 13 starts so far this year, and his numbers are strong to this point. Cavalli has amassed 64.2 innings of work, recording 74 strikeouts in that span. He not only generates a 71st-percentile strikeout rate, but his 72nd-percentile ground-ball rate is another excellent attribute I appreciate. His 3.62 ERA is backed by an even better 2.99 FIP, and I believe that FIP stays under 3 with another strong outing today.
Cavalli has stayed under this 2.5 earned runs allowed mark in 3 straight outings and 10 of 13 starts, and he faces an Arizona lineup on Sunday that is not in great form against right-handed pitching. Across the last 30 days, the Diamondbacks sit just 23rd in wOBA with an 89 wRC+. In that sample, they have the league’s lowest strikeout rate, but they aren’t generating enough quality contact to do much damage. With his outs recorded prop of just 15.5 having juice towards the under, I believe there is value in backing Cavalli once again.
Get more MLB best bets for Sunday's action
MLB Best Bet: Noah Cameron (KCR) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-127)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140.
Noah Cameron started his season by facing and taking down the Minnesota Twins. His season debut resulted in 5 innings of 1-run ball against Minnesota, resulting in a 13-9 Royals victory. He followed that outing up with 5.2 innings of 1-run ball against the Cleveland Guardians, and then had a 6-start stretch during which he didn’t perform at his best – causing his ERA to balloon to 5.40.
Cameron has been far sharper of late, however, tossing 18 innings with just 3 earned runs allowed across his last 3 starts combined. This includes 7 innings on the road in Great American Ballpark against a Reds lineup that had been mashing lefty pitchers. Unlike Cincinnati, Minnesota has not been hitting lefties well, ranking 24th in wOBA with an 85 wRC+ in the last 30 days. Look for Cameron to fill the zone early and often in counts and work from ahead in this start.
