MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Sunday, September 27, inc. Astros vs Athletics
We have reached the final day of the MLB regular season and storylines are abundant. Statistical races, playoff races in both leagues, Max Scherzer tracking down his former teammate no the all-time leaderboards. There are countless reasons to check into the MLB slate of games today from both an entertainment and betting perspective. Let's dive in and take a look at my 3 favorite bets for Sunday, while you can get the rest of our MLB picks for today's regular-season finale!
MLB Best Bet: Jared Jones (PIT) over 5.5 strikeouts recorded (-150)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -165.
Jared Jones has had an electric close to his 2026 season, putting together a very encouraging stretch of play. Pirate fans are hopeful he can roll this success into next season and perform at the top of their rotation in 2027. Jones has made 4 starts this month spanning a combined 25 innings pitched. He has recorded 35 strikeouts with just 4 walks issued in that span, allowing only 3 total earned runs in those starts. Pittsburgh has let his workload remain the same and I love that given his competitive nature and the fact this is his first time being healthy in some time. I expect Jones to come out fired up for the final start of his season.
Jones has a 5.5 strikeout prop for this matchup with the Detroit Tigers. Detroit is also eliminated from playoff contention in what was a disappointing season for the club. In the last 30 days against right-handed pitching the Tigers sit middle of the pack with a 101 wRC+ and the 17th ranked wOBA. They are striking out above 23% of the time, however, and I expect Jones to find 6 or more Ks in this spot.
Check out our Pirates vs Tigers prediction
MLB Best Bet: DJ Herz (WAS) over 4.5 strikeouts recorded (-104)
Odds available at DraftKings and FanDuel sportsbooks at time of publishing. Playable to -115.
DJ Herz will make his 2nd appearance of the season Sunday as his Washington Nationals close their season against the New York Mets. Herz, a left-hander, made 19 starts as a rookie during the 2024 season for Washington before going down with injury and requiring Tommy John surgery. Herz worked his way back through the rehab process and struck out 30 batters in 25.2 minor league innings. His last 2 outings each spanned 4.1 innings pitched, facing 15 and then 16 batters in those starts. Herz faced 19 batters across 63 pitches and 4 innings in his MLB return. His strikeout prop for his return was 3.5, a mark he surpassed with 4 Ks.
I am once again looking to back Herz in the strikeout department, this time at a 4.5 line. Herz will take on a Mets lineup that is slumping against southpaw pitching. In the last 30 days against lefties New York ranks 24th in wOBA with a 77 wRC+. They aren’t striking out a ton in that span, but we did successfully target Andrew Alvarez in this matchup the other day. Herz ranked 81st percentile in K% as a rookie with a 78th percentile whiff rate. He surpassed this 4.5 prop in 13 of 19 starts as a rookie and I am a fan of this play at current pricing.
Here's our Mets vs Nationals prediction
MLB Best Bet: Houston Astros ML (-172) over the Athletics
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -175.
The Houston Astros control their destiny on Sunday. They can clinch the division crown and a playoff berth by defeating the Athletics as they hold the tiebreaker with the Rangers. Texas and Houston each have the same 80-81 record entering the final day of the regular season and I am fired up to see how this race closes.
Peter Lambert is the scheduled starter for Houston Sunday. Lambert has been one of Houston’s better starting options in 2026, posting a 3.87 ERA through 28 starts spanning a combined 153.2 innings of work. His xERA supports him at 3.73, a mark that sits 66th percentile among MLB pitchers. The Athletics sit just 21st in wOBA with an 89 wRC+ in the last 30 days against right-handed pitching, and I expect Lambert to deliver some solid innings for the Astros in a must-win game.
The Athletics are rolling with a bullpen game to close out their regular season, rolling with Seth Johnson as the opener. We can expect a couple innings at most from the right-hander as he has been used in that role pretty steadily this season. Brady Basso is expected to see work in this game as well, and the 2 combined arms will likely get them through what used to be a normal workload for a starter. The Athletics pitching staff is an underwhelming unit, and I expect the Astros to produce enough run support to clinch a playoff berth Sunday.
Get our Astros vs Athletics prediction
