MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Thursday, August 13, inc. Red Sox vs Blue Jays
We have a lighter slate of MLB action on tap for Thursday, August 13, and there are a trio of bets standing out to me among the rest this morning.
Let's dive in and discuss why I am targeting these MLB best bets today, while you can also get our expert MLB picks for all seven matchups, including Mariners vs Yankees, Cubs vs Nationals and Red Sox vs Blue Jays.
MLB Best Bet: Boston Red Sox ML (-154) over the Toronto Blue Jays
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -165.
Payton Tolle is pitching very well for the Boston Red Sox and draws an advantageous matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays Thursday. Tolle, an intimidating 6’6” left-hander, has amassed 107 innings so far this season for Boston while posting a 3.20 ERA in that span. That ERA is backed by an even stronger 2.81 xERA that ranks 93rd percentile. Tolle has terrific strikeout stuff while still limiting free passes. This is in large part to his 93rd percentile chase rate that draws batters out of the zone and expands the strike zone for Tolle. In the last 30 days against left-handed pitching the Blue Jays sit just 28th in wOBA with a putrid wRC+ of 62.
Max Scherzer is a household name, but not nearly the pitcher he once was. The veteran right-hander has tossed just 36 innings this season but has already allowed 11 home runs in that short span. Scherzer ranks 8th percentile with his 11.0%-barrel rate, and his 9.3% walk rate is leaving runners on base for those long fly’s. Boston sits 4th in wOBA with a 120 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days, striking out rarely in that stretch of play. I favor Boston Thursday given current pricing.
MLB Best Bet: Davis Martin (CWS) over 4.5 strikeouts recorded (-124)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135.
Davis Martin saw his previous start shortened due to a lengthy rain delay. The prior start resulted in 9 earned runs allowed across just 5 innings to a red-hot Red Sox offense. The market for his strikeout prop has taken a hit as a result, and I am looking to back the over on his 4.5 line in a rebound effort Thursday.
Martin has made 23 starts spanning 123 innings of work this season for the White Sox. In those starts Martin has racked up 108 strikeouts. While not a strikeout arm, he does generate a healthy number of chases, and Martin has shown upside in this area at times this season. The right-hander has recorded five or more punch outs in 12 of his starts this year including nine of his first 11 outings.
The matchup Thursday is the main reason why I am looking to back Martin in this fashion, as the Cincinnati Reds are a heavily strikeout prone lineup against right-handed pitching. In the last 30 days against righties Cincinnati sits atop the strikeout leaderboards with a league worst 27.3% rate. Among the last 15 right-handed starters to face the Reds, 11 have cleared this mark while numerous arms have soared past this threshold.
MLB Best Bet: Walbert Urena (LAA) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-142)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -155.
Walbert Urena is a starting pitcher for the Los Angeles Angels that I am very fond of. The right-hander is a crucial piece of this starting rotation moving forward, especially after the organization traded away Jose Soriano at the trade deadline. Urena shared a lot of positive attributes with Soriano, including his ability to generate ground balls. Walbert sits 92nd percentile in ground ball rate this season at 54.3%. He also generates a ton of weak contact, ranking 83rd percentile in hard-hit rate. This is not always a combination as often times ground ball artists do allow a lot of hard contact.
Not only is Urena’s batted ball profile strong, but he also generates a healthy number of whiffs. Urena sits 71st percentile in whiff rate this season. Walks are a major concern for the right-hander, and a large reason why he doesn’t work overly deep into games. We don’t necessarily want a deep outing for this prop type, however, and he has already shown an ability to perform despite poor command.
In two starts against the Rangers this season Urena has allowed eight walks in nine innings pitched. He allowed just one earned run in those combined innings, however, thanks to weak contact generated and decent strikeout totals. In the last 30 days against right-handed pitching the Rangers sit just 21st in wOBA with a 93 wRC+. Their walk rate during that sample is the 5th lowest mark in baseball as well. I favor the under on Urena’s earned runs allowed prop Thursday at current pricing.
