MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Thursday, July 2, inc. Reds vs Brewers

While we have a smaller slate of MLB games on Thursday, July 2, there are still several spots worth diving into from a betting perspective. I found 3 MLB best bets worth sharing today, and I'm ready to dive into the analysis with you. Let's get into it right now, and remember, we have MLB predictions for EVERY game throughout the season.

MLB Best Bet: Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers first 5 innings total under 3.5 (-125)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135.

I favor the under in Thursday’s matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Cincinnati Reds. While I believe we see a low-scoring affair throughout the contest, I do feel more comfortable limiting this bet to the first 5 innings. Our best angle on this bet is the elite starting pitching matchup, and I would hate for 2 middling bullpens to ruin that pitcher’s duel in the later innings. I am also fine with a first 3 innings under if you can find a playable price. 

Chase Burns and Jacob Misiorowski are 2 of the more talented young arms in the sport. These fire-throwing right-handers are set to face off on Thursday, with the posted game total sitting at just 6.5. We are requesting 3 or fewer runs within the first 5 innings, and I believe this is an achievable proposition. Burns is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing 5 earned runs to the Pirates. His prior 12 starts each resulted in 2 or fewer earned runs allowed, and I expect him to return to form on Thursday. Burns is the lesser of today’s starters, but he is still an elite arm with fantastic strikeout upside and the ability to shut down any lineup.

Misiorowski has been baseball’s best pitcher so far in 2026 despite tons of competition for that crown. The Brewers’ right-hander averages 100.3 MPH on his fastball and has reached 105.5 MPH on that pitch this season. He consistently carries that velocity deep into games, and his 1.45 ERA is an amazing result. Misiorowski ranks 70th percentile or better in every major category I look at, and he should be able to rack up the strikeouts against this Reds lineup.

Get our full Reds vs Brewers prediction

MLB Best Bet: Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners under 7.5 (-110)

Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120.

Keeping the under trend going, I'm expecting another low-scoring game in Thursday’s matchup between the Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners. Bryce Miller is set to start for the Mariners, as the right-hander makes his 9th appearance of the season. Through 45.2 innings of work, Miller has posted a 1.97 ERA with a 2.28 xERA that sits 98th percentile. Further, he has posted a 0.72 WHIP thanks to a 99th percentile walk rate and a 94th percentile xBA. Miller limits hard contact while generating a ton of strikeouts, and I am more than willing to back his current form because of it. Bryce does have a bit of a home run issue in his last 3 starts, but I am a fan of his matchup with the Angels lineup on Thursday.

Walbert Urena is an underrated starting option for the Los Angeles Angels. Urena has had 2 poor outings this season, but both of those performances have something in common. It was the 2nd time facing the same lineup in as many outings for Urena in both spots, facing the Astros and Athletics in close proximity rematches. Urena succeeded in the first matchup on both occasions before familiarity set in and helped out the offenses. Active Mariner batters have a combined 0 plate appearances against Walbert at the major league level, and that should help him the first time through the order. In 71.2 innings this season, Urena has posted a 3.14 ERA and 3.27 xERA while generating an elite 93rd-percentile ground ball rate. Look for a low-scoring matchup between these clubs on Thursday.

Check out our Angels vs Mariners prediction for a pick on the side

MLB Best Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies over 10.5 (-102)

Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -110.

Let's shift gears and back an over. I expect runs from both the Phillies and Pirates in Thursday’s all-Pennsylvania matchup. So far in this series, we have seen 18, 8 and 16 runs scored through the first 3 contests. Both lineups are tearing the cover off the ball against right-handed pitching of late, and neither starting option instills a ton of confidence in backing them. Jared Jones is the scheduled starter for Pittsburgh on Thursday. He is the more talented starting option in this game, but the right-hander has yet to find his form since returning from injury. Jones has posted a 5.76 ERA through 25 innings of work. His 4.81 xERA is a bit better but still an undesirable mark. The command of the strike zone has been inconsistent, and he is now tasked with a Phillies lineup ranking 6th in wOBA with a 126 wRC+ against righties in the last 30 days.

In that same sample, the Pirates rank 3rd in wOBA with a 134 wRC+. They have been excellent against righties all season long given their left-handed power bats. The return of Konnor Griffin and excellent form from Esmerlyn Valdez has lengthened this lineup as well. I also believe we could see scoring in the later innings with the shaky Pirates bullpen and a Phillies bullpen sitting middle of the pack in the last month. Let's hope for some early 4th of July fireworks in this one.

Here's our full Pirates vs Phillies prediction