MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Thursday, June 18, inc. Twins vs Rangers
Thursday presents us with some new series getting started while others wrap up, and despite a smaller-than-usual 9-game slate, I find this card to be very interesting. There are several games worth diving into from a betting perspective, and this article covers my 3 MLB best bets for Thursday, June 18.
Let's break 'em down, while you can also check out our expert MLB picks for each of today's matchups and every game throughout the entire 2026 season.
MLB Best Bet: Minnesota Twins ML over Texas Rangers (-124)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135.
The Minnesota Twins and the Texas Rangers have produced very similar results at the plate against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. In that sample the Twins have a .324 wOBA and a 104 wRC+ while Texas has a .324 wOBA with a 106 wRC+. The difference in Thursday’s matchup, in my opinion, will be the form of the starting pitchers. Joe Ryan is set to make his 16th start of the season. He enters play with a 3.17 ERA across 82.1 innings of work. He has registered a quality start in 6 of his last 7 attempts, still tossing 6 innings in a Minnesota win during his only failure. Ryan has been tough on either handedness of batter and I look for him to find success in this spot.
Jack Leiter is set to make his 15th start of the season for Texas. The right-hander has a 4.86 ERA through his first 76 innings pitched. He has good velocity on his fastball and extension on his pitches overall, but Leiter has struggled to keep batters off base of late. His first 2 starts of this month have resulted in 11 total runs across 9.2 innings against the Guardians and Red Sox. He has allowed 4 or more earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. The combination of his weak batted ball profile and shaky command doesn’t instill a ton of confidence that he will perform well Thursday. I favor the Twins at current pricing.
Read our full Twins vs Rangers prediction
MLB Best Bet: San Francisco Giants ML over Atlanta Braves (+120)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +110.
Landen Roupp has had a tough schedule of late. The right-handed starter for San Francisco faced the Dodgers on May 14. Following that outing he faced the Diamondbacks in back-to-back outings. He then had to pitch in Milwaukee against the Brewers before back-to-back starts against the Cubs. The Braves are another tough lineup, but at least Roupp draws them at a time when they are in a minor slump. Across the last 30 days against right-handed pitching the Braves sit 24th in wOBA with a wRC+ of 95. Roupp still sports some elite batted ball metrics alongside a 78th percentile strikeout rate. He is my preferred starter in this game.
Martin Perez is set to start for the Braves on Thursday, marking his 15th appearance and 11th start of the season. The veteran southpaw has provided Atlanta with valuable innings, but he is not someone I am looking to back often. Perez has a 2.90 ERA through 62 innings pitched, but his 4.02 xERA suggests some regression. A low strikeout rate arm, Perez is overly dependent on ground balls to get him out of jams. San Francisco has picked up their play against lefties of late, ranking fourth in wOBA with a 132 wRC+ and the 3rd lowest ground-ball rate against southpaw pitching in the last 30 days.
MLB Best Bet: Sean Manaea (NYM) over 4.5 strikeouts in Mets vs Phillies (-162)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -185.
Sean Manaea has made 15 appearances for the Mets this season spanning a combined 49.0 innings of work. He has largely served as a bulk reliever but did enter the starting rotation last time out. Manaea tossed 6.0 innings of 2-run ball against the Braves, recording 6 strikeouts in his 84 pitches thrown. The veteran southpaw has 51 strikeouts so far this year, good for a 60th percentile strikeout clip. Manaea is generating a 62nd percentile chase rate and has had success of late overall. His last 5 outings have combined for 21.2 innings with just 7 earned runs and 22 strikeouts recorded.
Manaea has an outs recorded prop of 15.5 today, suggesting he at least pitches into the fifth inning of this game. His strikeout prop is where I am finding a bit of value, as I believe the 4.5 prop should be more expensive to bet the over. The Phillies have the 11th-highest strikeout rate against lefty pitching across the last 30 days at 23.6%. They sit 25th in wOBA with an 86 wRC+ in that sample. Look for Manaea to take advantage of his starting role and earn 5 or more strikeouts on Thursday.
