MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Tuesday, July 21, inc. Rangers vs White Sox

We have a loaded slate of MLB action on tap for Tuesday, July 21, and there are 3 MLB best bets standing out to me this morning. Let's jump right in and break them down, while you can also get our expert MLB picks for all 15 games today, as well as every game throughout the entire 2026 season!

MLB Best Bet: Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers over 8.5 (-110)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120 odds.

I favor the over in Tuesday’s matchup between the Texas Rangers and the Chicago White Sox. The game has a total of 8.5, and I believe we could see double-digit runs scored tonight. Both offenses have advantageous matchups on paper, and both units are firing on all cylinders currently against the handedness they will face.

Across the last 30 days, the Texas Rangers are MLB’s best unit offensively against southpaw pitching. In that sample, they rank 1st in wOBA while posting a 140 wRC+, 11% better than anyone else in that span. They will face Noah Schultz on Tuesday. The 6’10” lefty enters play with a 5.60 ERA and an even worse 6.04 xERA through 53 innings pitched. Schultz is allowing an 11.5% barrel rate and a 12.6% walk rate while failing to record enough strikeouts to get away with it.

Kumar Rocker is the scheduled starter for Texas in this matchup. Rocker has 90 innings under his belt in 2026, with his 4.40 ERA shadowed by a 4.74 xERA that ranks in the 28th percentile. He sits well in terms of ground-ball rate, but the rest of his profile leaves a lot to be desired in terms of what I like to bet on. Rocker allowed 4 home runs and 10 earned runs in 10 innings so far this month, and I don’t expect him to regain good form in this matchup.

Read our full White Sox vs Rangers prediction for tonight's MLB matchup

MLB Best Bet: Chase Burns (CIN) over 6.5 strikeouts recorded (-152)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -165 odds.

Chase Burns just inked a 7-year contract extension with the Cincinnati Reds that will earn him $105 million in guaranteed money. It is the largest contract handed out to a starter with under 4 years of service time in MLB history. Burns was clearly a main focus of the Reds to lock him up and buy out 2 years of free agency. For Burns, he can accept this deal and still enter free agency for the first time as a 30-year-old in his prime. 

My focus for Burns today is to regain his strikeout form. In 102.2 total innings this season, the right-hander has recorded 118 strikeouts. He had recorded 7 or more punchouts in 8 straight starts before failing to reach that mark in his first 2 outings this month. His last start resulted in 6 walks issued against the Phillies, but I believe that to be a blip on the radar.

Burns ranks in the 83rd percentile in chase rate and the 89th percentile in whiff rate this season, resulting in his 28.6% strikeout clip. He actually has below a strikeout per inning pitched at home this season, but when on the road, he has 69 punchouts across 52.1 innings pitched. He faces a Seattle lineup that ranks just 29th in wOBA against right-handers in the last 30 days. Their strikeout rate approaches 23% in that sample, and I expect a strong start from Burns in this spot.

Lock in our Reds vs Mariners prediction for today

MLB Best Bet: Walbert Urena (LAA) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-146)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -160 odds.

Walbert Urena walks too many batters. There aren’t many other flaws in his game, however, and I am becoming a major fan of the right-hander as he progresses through his rookie campaign. Urena is still just 22 years old and has already made an impact on this Angels starting rotation. His first 81.1 innings have resulted in a 2.88 ERA and a very solid 3.31 xERA that ranks in the 77th percentile. Urena sports fantastic batted-ball metrics, ranking in the 95th percentile in ground-ball rate and the 92nd percentile in xBA. He suppresses hard contact at an elite rate, and he also has some strikeout upside in the tank.

Command of the zone typically decides how deep into games he works, but today he faces a Cardinals lineup that sports the 2nd-lowest walk rate against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. In that sample, St. Louis ranks 29th in wOBA while posting a 77 wRC+. Their offensive production has slipped, putting pressure on an already shaky starting rotation to perform well. Urena has been tough on both lefties and righties, and I expect him to continue his strong form Tuesday by allowing 2 or fewer earned runs.

Get our Cardinals vs Angels prediction and betting analysis for their MLB clash on Tuesday