MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Tuesday, July 28, inc. Astros vs Angels
Monday's MLB games were extremely entertaining with amazing finishes across the landscape. Tuesday presents us with another chance at finding betting value, and there are 3 spots standing out to me among the rest. Let's dive in and discuss my 3 MLB best bets for Tuesday, July 28, while you can also get our expert MLB picks for all 16 matchups today and EVERY GAME throughout the rest of the 2026 season!
MLB Best Bet: Reid Detmers (LAA) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-157)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -170 odds.
Reid Detmers is once again being talked about as a trade candidate for the Los Angeles Angels, but there does seem to be some steam from these rumors as we get closer to the trade deadline. There should be countless potential suitors lined up for the services of both Reid Detmers and Jose Soriano, and if the Angels are open to a full rebuild, they could return quite a haul. Detmers has clearly had the talent to produce as a top-end starter, but 2026 has been the season where he has put things together. While still not an entirely finished product, Detmers is far more lethal than previous seasons and I expect another strong outing from him Tuesday.
Detmers enters play with a 4.05 ERA in 120 innings pitched, but his 3.30 xERA is a far better mark that ranks 77th percentile. The lefty strikes out 27.6% of batters he faces which is a terrific mark, and his 7.5% walk rate is also a 63rd percentile mark. Detmers has had consistent production on the road and at home, and his last 2 starts have been very impressive with 11.1 innings of 1-run ball against the Tigers and Cardinals. Now he faces an Astros lineup that is slumping against southpaw pitching. In the last 30 days against lefties the Astros sit 25th in wOBA with a 78 wRC+. In what could be his final start as an Angel, I expect an inspired performance from Detmers.
Read our expert's full Astros vs Angels prediction for tonight
MLB Best Bet: Troy Melton (DET) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-129)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -145 odds.
Melton is someone I have talked about in the betting market for some time now, and there is still value in his props. We backed him with this same prop in each of his last 2 starts, and we won both bets as Melton continued his elite stretch of play. Melton tossed 5 innings of 2-run ball against the Royals and 5.2 innings of 1-run ball against the Angels in those outings, extending his streak to 6 straight starts with 2 or fewer earned runs allowed. In his 10 starts this season he has allowed 3 or more earned runs just once. Underlying metrics support the right-hander's success with his 3/18 xERA ranking as an 82nd percentile mark. Melton generates chases, induces weak contact, and limits barrels from opponents. His profile is clearly one I enjoy betting on, and I am in favor of his matchup against the Orioles Tuesday.
Baltimore ranks just 24th in wOBA with a 90 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. The Orioles have offensive talent on their roster, but they team is unfortunately experiencing their 2nd straight disappointing season. Underperformance from multiple sources has contributed to their inconsistent play, and I am not overly fond of their chances to rebound against Melton in his elite form. There are many props showing value for Melton but run prevention is where I will continue to bet on his talents.
Get more Orioles vs Tigers predictions with MLB stats, trends and more for today's MLB matchup
MLB Best Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates ML over Arizona Diamondbacks (-116)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120 odds.
Bubba Chandler had a rough start to his 2026 campaign, but the right-hander has looked far more comfortable across his last 8 starts. Among those 8 outings, 6 resulted in 2 or fewer earned runs allowed including 6.1 scoreless frames against the Yankees in his last start. He has lowered his season-long ERA from 5.05 to 4.47 in that span, and his xERA is even lower at 3.98. Chandler has immense talent, but inconsistency with command has been his major concern early in his career. It will be crucial for Chandler to fill the zone with strikes in this matchup with Arizona, but I am optimistic that he can take a step forward for Pittsburgh in the final 3rd of the season.
Brandon Pfaadt is also pitching the best ball of his season, allowing 2 or fewer earned runs in each of his last 5 starts, lowering his ERA from 5.92 to 4.43 in that sample. Pfaadt, unlike Chandler, is elite with his command of the zone and rarely issues walks. He does allow far more barrels than Chandler, however, and his strikeout production has been even less than his counterpart. Pfaadt is also tasked with facing the tougher lineup as Pittsburgh has crushed right-handed pitching all year long, especially at home. Esmerlyn Valdez may be out of the lineup as they determine the severity of his injury from Monday, but I still favor the Pirates at home given the current number.
Read our full Diamondbacks vs Pirates prediction for tonight's MLB game
