MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Wednesday, August 26, inc. Diamondbacks vs Cubs
We have a loaded slate of MLB action on tap for Wednesday, August 26, with a full 15-game lineup to sink our teeth into. Across those matchups, I've locked in my 3 MLB best bets that are standing out to me above the rest. Let's dive in and break 'em down, while you can also get our MLB picks for every game today, including Rays vs Tigers, Red Sox vs Marlins, Cubs vs Diamondbacks, Pirates vs Padres, Phillies vs Mariners, Astros vs Yankees, and Rangers vs White Sox. You can also catch Dodgers vs Braves live on MLB Network tonight at 7:15 pm ET.
MLB Best Bet: Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Over 8.5 (-118)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Over 9 (+100).
In the last 30 days against left-handed pitching the two best lineups in baseball have been the Chicago Cubs and the Arizona Diamondbacks. In that span the Cubs sit first in wOBA with a 149 wRC+ and a .907 OPS. Arizona sits second in that sample with the srcond-best wOBA, a 129 wRC+, and an .837 OPS. Both teams will face southpaw starters in Wednesday’s matchup.
Matthew Boyd is the scheduled starter for Chicago Wednesday. Boyd has really struggled so far in August, posting a 6.12 ERA in his first 25 innings this month. The left-hander has just 11 strikeouts and 8 home runs allowed in that span. On the season his 4.15 ERA is shadowed by a 5.01 xERA and his 9.8%-barrel rate ranks 11th percentile.
Eduardo Rodriguez is the scheduled starter for the Diamondbacks in this game. He enters play with a 2.61 ERA through his first 155 innings pitched this season. Despite that strong ERA, his xERA sits nearly two full runs higher at 4.59. His last 3 starts have resulted in strong output, but the Cubs have been purely dominant against lefties of late. I favor the over on the posted game total in Wednesday’s game between Arizona and Chicago.
Get more analysis on our Cubs vs Diamondbacks prediction, featuring MLB stats, trends and more
MLB Best Bet: Nick Lodolo (CIN) Under 2.5 earned runs allowed in Reds vs Giants (-170)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -180.
Nick Lodolo faced a very tough Arizona Diamondbacks lineup last time out. Despite the absence of Ketel Marte the Diamondbacks are still in elite form against lefties, posting the 2nd highest wOBA and a 129 wRC+ against lefties in the last 30 days. Lodolo allowed 6 earned runs across 3.1 innings in that matchup, but I am fond of his chances to bounce back Wednesday. The southpaw hurler is set to face the Giants who are rolling out a very weak lineup of late. They have several players in their lineup that weren’t part of the picture to start the season, and their results against lefties of late has been horrific. In the last 30 days against southpaw pitching the Giants rank dead last in wOBA with a 58 wRC+ and a strikeout rate over 25%.
Lodolo has made 15 starts so far this season for the Reds. Only seven of those starts have resulted in two or fewer earned runs allowed, so this isn’t a prop that will pop on any hit-rate boards. The lefties underlying metrics are admittedly weak and not numbers I would usually look to bet on. Lodolo does get to make this start in Oracle Park instead of Great American Ballpark, however, presenting one of the more positive park shifts any starter could get. That, combined with the weak lineup he will face, is enough to find value in this prop at current pricing.
Read our full Reds vs Giants prediction for this afternoon's MLB matchup
MLB Best Bet: Bubba Chandler (PIT) Under 15.5 outs recorded in Pirates vs Padres (-145)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing. Playable to -160.
Pittsburgh has won the first 2 games of the series in low-scoring one-run wins. They will look to keep things low scoring again Wednesday with Bubba Chandler taking the mound for his 26th appearance of the year. His first 25 appearances have spanned 125.1 innings this season for the Pirates, posting a 4.38 ERA and 4.08 xERA. There have been moments that show his extreme upside this season, but it has been an inconsistent one altogether as he gets used to being a full-time MLB starter.
On the year Chandler ranks just 12th percentile in walk rate, allowing 12.1% of batters faced to draw a free base. Those struggles with command have hiked his pitch count up and made things tough in terms of efficiency. Despite extreme velocity and obviously good stuff, Chandler’s right arm doesn’t generate a ton of strikeouts so far in his career. There aren’t many easy outs coming his way, especially given his below average ground ball rate.
San Diego is in good form entering this game, mashing right-handed pitching in the last 30 days with the fourth-best wOBA and a 114 wRC+. In that span they have a 10.6% walk rate which sits third-highest in that sample. With Pittsburgh’s season all but over, and Chandler’s workload restrictions to close this season, I would be surprised to see him toss more than five innings in this game.
Check out our Pirates vs Padres best bet for today
