Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 05/06/26

The Baltimore Orioles put an end to a five-game losing streak in the series opener against Miami yesterday and will look to make it two straight wins, sending Brandon Young (6.14 ERA, 1.64 WHIP) on the mound for just his fourth start of the season. It’s a limited sample size, but the RHP has surrendered 17 hits and 7 earned runs over the last 9.2 innings pitched. He falls in the 15th percentile or worse in xERA, xBA and strikeout rate with a less-than-ideal matchup against a Miami team that ranks 5th in BA (.261) and 10th in wRC+ (107) vs right-handed pitching. In relief for Young is one of the worst-performing bullpen units in the league with a 4.86 combined ERA (26th in MLB).

Miami has the better offense in this matchup and likely the better starting pitcher with Eury Perez (4.46 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) taking the bump. He’s had some shaky moments this season, but he’s posting a 117 stuff+ rating compared to just a 97 rating for Young. With a better starter, the better bullpen, and a favorable matchup for the Miami offense, I’ll take the Marlins to get the win at home in a bounce-back spot.

Orioles vs Marlins prediction: Marlins ML (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable to -140.