Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals predictions

Thu 7/22 7:15 ET
Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals
Busch Stadium

Pickswise's Expert Predictions & Analysis

Money Line Prediction
STL Cardinals Win
Game Totals Prediction

Money Line Pick

Kwang-Hyun Kim was a decent pitcher in the Cardinals’ starting rotation at the beginning of the season, but right now he is the ace. Kim enters this matchup on a 21-inning scoreless streak that spans over four different starts and the last time he allowed a run was June 30 to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Since that start, Kim has shut out the Giants twice and the Cubs once and has allowed just 11 hits during those three starts. Kim’s success is a little surprising since the lefty normally doesn’t hit 90 miles per hour during a start and has a 14.2 percent strikeout rate, which puts him in the 14th percentile in the league. But Kim has made a significant change to his arsenal in his last three starts as he is throwing his curveball far less than normal and incorporating his change-up more than ever. The Cardinals offense has not been performing as well as many expected prior to this season, but Paul Goldschmidt is carrying the St Louis lineup as he entered Wednesday night’s game batting .414 in the last seven days. 

Adbert Alzolay’s best start of the season was May 22 in St Louis, but it has been pretty downhill from there. He has a 4.93 ERA since that start and has been allowing a lot of extra-base hits as his hard-hit rate and barrel rate have soared to the highest levels of his three-year career. With the trade deadline approaching, the Cubs are expected to be the biggest seller at the deadline and Kris Bryant and Craig Kimbrel seem to be the two most likely trade candidates. Their offense has been dramatically underperforming, which has caused the down year for the Cubs and since the All-Star break, Chicago ranks in the bottom seven in batting average, on-base percentage and OPS. It’s hard to go against Kim because of how well he has pitched recently, so back the Cardinals at a great money line price.

Game Totals Pick

Everything about this game points to the under. The Cubs average the fourth-fewest runs per game on the road while the Cardinals average the third-fewest runs per game at home and with Kim on the mound, this game should stay far below the total.

Neither offense has been great since the All-Star break as they both rank in the bottom half of the league in OPS and the weather will be on the pitchers’ side as the wind will be blowing in from right field at around six to eight miles per hour. Until Kim shows any signs of a poor start in his future, back the under.

Under 8 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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