Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 05/02/26

Pittsburgh won the 1st game of their 3-game series with the Cincinnati Reds on Friday by a 9-1 final score. Henry Davis led the Pirate attack with his 2nd career multi home run game while Bryan Reynolds and Marcell Ozuna both contributed homers as well. Pittsburgh is once again favored on Saturday, but I am more focused on the total for this matchup. I favor the over in Game 2 as both offenses should be in line for a bit of success.

Rhett Lowder is the scheduled starter for Cincinnati on Saturday. Lowder has made 6 starts so far this season for the Reds, posting a 3.18 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through 34 innings of work. His 4.00 xERA and 4.31 xFIP are slightly worse marks, however, and whiffs have not been there for Lowder ranking just 20th percentile in that metric. Pittsburgh was able to pounce on a low whiff rate arm in Brady Singer last night, and the Reds bullpen behind Lowder is suspect ranking 22nd in FIP and 25th in xFIP.

Carmen Mlodzinski is set to make his seventh appearance of the year, as well, on Saturday — but the right-hander is in a bit of a rut currently. His last 2 starts have combined for just 8 innings with 9 earned runs allowed and an additional unearned run surrendered. He does have 10 strikeouts and 0 home runs in that span, but he has been getting hit way too hard. Entering Saturday Mlodzinski ranks 2nd percentile with his 55.4% hard-hit rate allowed. His whiff rate is also just 16th percentile. With wind blowing out at about 8 MPH in Pittsburgh, I lean toward the over despite cool temperatures.

Reds vs Pirates prediction: Over 8 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -115.

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