Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 05/02/26

We have a fun starting pitching matchup on Saturday in the game between the Miami Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies. Max Meyer is set to start for the Marlins, marking his 7th start of the year so far. Meyer has yet to work past 5.1 innings in any individual start, but he has still been effective with a 3.30 ERA across 30 innings total. His 3.31 FIP and strong strikeout metrics support his success despite some suspect batted ball metrics. He has yet to allow more than 3 earned runs in an outing, and his last start was his best so far with 0 earned runs against the Giants.

Andrew Painter has been unlucky so far for the Phillies, posting a 5.25 ERA despite a 3.96 xERA and a 3.35 FIP. Opponents have a .359 BABIP against him despite quality batted ball metrics. Through 24 innings of play Painter sits 79th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed and 64th percentile in barrel rate. He is also inducing a ton of chases on pitches outside the strike zone, and his 5.6% walk rate ranks 88th percentile. After back-to-back starts against Atlanta I am sure Painter is looking forward to facing a new lineup, albeit a solid one from the Marlins. I lean toward the under in this matchup on Saturday.

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction: Under 8.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120 odds.