Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/29/26

Miami’s baseball series against the Cavs proved what we already know – the team is still not out of the gutter in terms of their poor play on the defensive end. Yes, they won the first out of those two games vs the Cavs, but that win was more due to the Cavs failing to make all the open looks rather than the Heat playing well. Sunday sees the Heat trying to make amends in Indiana, taking on a struggling Pacers team, but one that is capable of putting up a bunch of points in no time. The regular season series is tied at 1-1, Indy actually won the latest meeting between the two sides back in mid-January, so the Heat will need to stay focused to get a result here. Norman Powell has been ruled out with an illness, for what it’s worth they are 11-8 SU in games without him.

Indiana has actually played solid basketball over their last 3 games, despite losing twice. They’ve covered the spread in all 3 of them, which has increased their streak to 5 games in a row covering the spread. In terms of wins they’re still on an 11-game losing streak in home games and time is running out if they want to gift their home fans with another win before the season is over. They’ll have only 3 more games at Gainbridge Fieldhouse after this one, against Minnesota, Philadelphia and Detroit. I can see them winning at least one of those remaining 4 games, but the question is which one? A bunch of players are once again on the injury report ahead of Sunday’s game, so it’s unclear which unit will appear in the starting line-up.

The pressure is on Miami to deliver. The Heat’s recent struggles have caused them to fall to ninth in the standings, but they can still leap over the Magic who are just a half game ahead. No Norman Powell might actually be a good thing for them, we’ve seen the offense click slightly better when he isn’t out there, which frees up some space for players like Tyler Herro to operate around the perimeter. The offensive rating is actually 2 points better per 100 possessions without Powell. I’ll give the Heat the benefit of the doubt here and back them to cover.

Heat vs Pacers prediction: Miami -8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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