San Antonio Spurs vs Miami Heat Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/23/26

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With 11 games left, the Spurs are 3-games off the OKC Thunder for the top seed in the Western Conference. And with the defending champs racking up wins, it’s becoming less likely by the day that San Antonio will catch them. Still, that shouldn’t discourage us from looking at a Spurs bet in Monday’s game in Miami. Victor Wembanyama has been a menace over the past 9 games, averaging 28.7 ppg, 10.9 rpg and 3.3 blocks. He is doing all this in 30.6 mins per game, and Bam Adebayo in particular will have his hands full trying to stop the Spurs’ big man. Miami as a team ranks 22nd in points allowed in the paint this season; it would be a good idea for San Antonio to get the ball early and often to their center.

The Heat have struggled over their last 4 games, losing to Orlando, Charlotte, the Lakers and Houston. It’s not often you see a coach dabble with his starting unit 70 games into the season, but that’s exactly what Erik Spoelstra has been doing — which could explain why Miami has been unable to win games. Norman Powell has been in and out of the starting lineup, and it’s unclear if he will play on Monday due to a lingering calf injury. Miami wasted a 31-point and 10-rebound effort from Adebayo the last time these 2 teams met, which ended in a 6-point Spurs victory. If there’s one encouraging factor for the Heat entering this game, it’s the fact that they have shot over 50% in their last 2 games. However, the defense will need to improve after 123, 134 and 136 points allowed in their last 3 outings.

The sense of urgency to win is a lot higher for Miami, but San Antonio is the more in-form team. With the likes of Jaime Jaquez, Norman Powell and Andrew Wiggins all questionable to play, it could be a struggle against one of the deeper teams in the NBA. The Spurs have won 9 of 10 on the road and they are also 4-1 ATS in 5 games against East opponents. I’ll take Wemby and company.

Spurs vs Heat prediction: San Antonio -5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.