Toronto Raptors vs Houston Rockets Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/10/26

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Despite a 30-point win over the Dallas Mavericks in their last game, the last 10 days or so haven’t gone to plan for the Raptors who are just 2-4 SU over their last 6 games. The other win they had during this period came against another tanking team in the form of the Washington Wizards, whenever this team faces a tougher opponent they fold under the pressure. This has been the case in recent meetings vs the Rockets where they’ve won just 1 of the last 5 meetings. It’s hard to win games in the modern NBA without a consistent three-point shot, Toronto’s last 5 games have seen them knock down 10 or less threes. They also face an uphill battle in the rebounding department here – Houston won that battle 53-22 in the first meeting which went their way 139-121.

Consistency has also eluded the Rockets in their last 5 games, with them exchanging wins and losses during this period. The next 5 games could be critical in the West playoff positioning as they take on Denver and the Lakers (twice) in the next 10 days, so it’s important to stay locked in against opponents like the Raptors. KD and co. didn’t have the best of games last time out, losing to the Spurs 145-120 in a game in which their opponent held the lead for 96% of playing time according to ESPN’s stats and info. The good news is Toronto doesn’t have a mismatch at the center position, like the Spurs do, that fact alone should make the Rockets’ lives a lot easier here.

It might sound like I’m simplifying things way too much here, but I think this match-up will come down to who does better in the rebounding department. Houston has been elite in that area for most of the season, since Steven Adams went down with an injury they’re not the same, but even without him they should still be in control against a team like Toronto. Go with Houston here.

Raptors vs Rockets prediction: Rockets -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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